For the 16th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.AKRON: Head coach Joe Moorhead deserves his flowers for overseeing a 5-7 campaign last season. It was the first time that the Zips won five games in eight seasons. He did so despite not only a postseason ban that impacted late-season motivation but also a restricted practice schedule due to that probation. Moorhead got his players' academics back in good standing — and the football side of things will benefit from getting the extra four hours of practice per week back to the standard 20 hours per week NCAA maximum allotment. Not surprisingly, Akron got hit hard in the transfer portal, particularly on both lines of scrimmage and at linebacker. The Zips probably have the worst NIL program in the FBS — and they have the smallest football budget and the lowest coaching payroll. But Moorhead perseveres. He brought in sixth-year senior Reese Poffenbarger from North Texas at quarterback. He’s well traveled, with this being his fifth program in six seasons — but he was the former backup to Cam Ward at Miami (FL) and starred at Albany at the FCS level. He enters this season with 6669 passing yards in his career. While talent is always going to be an issue for this program until the financial commitment of the university changes, Moorhead looks like a gamer. COLORADO: I was impressed with head coach Deion Sanders’ coaching effort two years ago in leading the Buffaloes to a 9-4 record in his second season with the program. But after a 3-9 campaign last year — and Colorado’s second 1-8 record in Big 12 play in the last three seasons- scrutiny is warranted. Perhaps losing superstars Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders was too much to overcome. And Sanders himself was in recovery from bladder cancer. But the results on the field were dismal as they ranked 15th in the Big 12 by getting outgained by -129 Yards-Per-Game. They lost their final five games of the season by -26.6 Points-Per-Game. Sanders could never decide on a quarterback as he shuffled between three players. The offensive line was a problem — and the Buffaloes generated only 125.6 rushing YPG, ranking 104th in the nation. Overall, Colorado gained 328.4 total YPG, which resulted in 20.9 PPG, ranking 112th and 114th in the FBS. The defense may have been worse by allowing 425.7 total YPG, which resulted in 30.5 PPG, ranking 121st and 111th in the nation. If Sanders' plan was to rely on the transfer portal in his first year with the program to dramatically improve the talent of the roster, this practice has now become the situation normal as he will field almost a brand-new team this season. Only 22 players remain from last year’s squad — and just five players were on their 9-4 squad two years ago. The fundamental problem with all this turnover is continuity and culture. It’s fickle — and it is an attitude that leads to attrition, as Sanders lost key returning players at wide receiver and the offensive line. He also sacked his second-year offensive and defensive coordinators. Well, who hired those bums? That all said, the incoming coaches and talent looked pretty darn good on paper. Former UNLV offensive coordinator and Sacramento State head coach last season, Brennan Marion, is one of the young, shot offensive minds. His “go-go” branded offense will demand a better running game to complement its vertical threats in the passing game. Defensive coordinator Chris Marve oversaw a very good defense at Virginia Tech two years ago. There is a slew of intriguing talent on both sides of the ball coming in from the transfer portal, ranging from blue blood programs like Texas and Alabama to some diamonds in the rough at the FCS level. Redshirt freshman and former five-star recruit Julian Lewis may be ready to run the offense. The offensive line brought in eight transfers, including three former starters from Power Conference squads. The defense lost its top 19 tacklers and returns only five scholarship players. But Sanders brought in plenty of talent. On both sides of the ball, it’s the third coordinator in four years. Depth is an issue — especially up front at both sides of the line of scrimmage. This is not how the elite programs operate. Perhaps Sanders can oversee improvement and then stabilize the continuity a bit, moving forward. Does he even want to? Is this it — little patience and feed the beast, desiring the next shiny new object? If so, bottoming out will be the likely outcome more often than the occasional nine-win season. COASTAL CAROLINA: On paper, the Chanticleers finished 6-7 for a second straight season after a 23-14 loss against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. But after previous head coach Jamey Chadwell led Coastal Carolina to a 42-6 combined record, things are moving in the wrong direction as the team has a 20-19 record in the three seasons under Tim Beck — and the deeper one digs, the worse it looks. After a 1-2 start to the season with their lone victory being against Charleston Southern, the Chanticleers did win five of their next six games. But the combined record of the five FBS teams they defeated over that span was just 14-31 after winning their sixth game of the season — and they got outgained by -64 net yards in those five games. They benefited from a +9 net turnover margin and some good fortunes on fourth down as they converted 7 of their 18 fourth down attempts. Coastal Carolina posted a 5-3 record against fellow Sun Belt Conference opponents — but they got outgained by -127 net Yards-Per-Game in those eight contests! They only had one victory against a team ranked higher than #111th in the nation using the SP+ metrics of ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Chanticleers scored 38.3 Points-Per-Game against teams that ranked in the bottom 20 in the FBS in SP+ defense — but they only averaged 8.3 PPG against their remaining opponents. Against teams ranked in the top 50 in the SP+ rankings, their average losing margin was by -42.4 PPG. Given all this, it’s not surprising that the administration fired Beck. Frankly, it may not have been his fault this football program has become a leading example of being a casualty in the new era of the transfer portal. Coastal Carolina is way behind in developing an NIL program. After inheriting 30 seniors or super seniors in Beck’s first season when the Chanticleers finished 8-5, the team had 66 new players in his second season. That offseason, more than 40 players left in the transfer portal, resulting in 67 new players on last year’s roster. It makes it difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture. The keys of the program were given to Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard, who did a great job leading the Bears to a 7-6 record last season in their first year at the FBS level. By all accounts, Beard is a fine head coach — and he brought over much of his coaching staff at Missouri State, including the offensive and defensive coordinators. But it is yet another massive reset with the roster after another 40 players left in the transfer portal. Beard brought in 59 new players for his roster, including 41 players in the portal, 15 true freshmen, and five junior college transfers. The hope is that with 12 players coming with him from the Bears last season, the Chanticleers can make it Missouri State East with the benefit of some key holdovers from Beck’s team last year along with some good players from the transfer portal. EASTERN MICHIGAN: After finishing 9-4 in 2022, the Eagles are moving in the wrong direction with three straight losing seasons. Their 4-8 record last year was their worst since 2016 (not counting their 2-4 campaign in the 2020 COVID year). It’s hard to put any of the blame on head coach Chris Creighton, who consistently has his team very well prepared and seems to get every ounce of talent out of his players. Eastern Michigan has a 58-62 record since Creighton took over, which is a minor miracle given where this program was prior to his arrival. His teams have pulled off 27 upset victories in his tenure. Additionally, 79 of their last 109 games were decided by one scoring possession. With his players earning a reputation as being physical and hard-working under his leadership, Creighton's roster has become a favorite target by bigger fish in the transfer portal. 12 starters are back this season, giving Creighton one of its most experienced rosters in years. For the first time since 2017, the Eagles return their starting quarterback from the year before with Noah Kim back for his fifth season. The former transfer from Coastal Carolina who originally played at Michigan State completed 61% of his passes last year and led the Mid-American Conference with 2817 passing yards. He tossed 18 touchdowns and threw 11 interceptions. The defense returns 17 of the 25 different players who started at least one game last year. The Eagles defense improved throughout the season. After surrendering 475 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games, they only allowed 352 YPG in their final six contests. FLORIDA STATE: Under head coach Mike Norvell, the Seminoles have become the poster child of the volatility regarding the current state of college football for power conference programs. Florida State enjoyed a two-year run where they went 23-3 that culminated in a snub of the four-team college football playoff (despite being undefeated at the time) due to them being down to their third-string quarterback due to injuries. Norvell’s commitment to developing younger players helped nurture a senior- and junior-laden roster that excelled in 2023. But Norvell was also de-prioritizing high school recruiting for the sugar high that the transfer portal offered. After the success of bringing in quarterback Jordan Travis from Louisville and finding a diamond in the rough in defensive end Jared Key from Albany, the program established a new NIL collective which enabled Norvell to double down on relying on the transfer portal. In my deep dive on the Seminoles for the 2024-25 season, my biggest question regarded whether Norvell was ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture — or did he find lightning in the bottle? After a nightmare 2-10 campaign, some answers were becoming apparent. As I wrote in my deep last year: “Norvell is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out … Norvell is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. The Seminoles will certainly be better this year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs.” Those thoughts were prescient as Florida State did improve — and they opened the season by upsetting Alabama. They outgained their opponents by +143 net Yards-Per-Game. But after a 3-0 start, they lost seven of their final nine games to finish 5-7 and not even qualify for a bowl game. Four of those were by one scoring possession. While some in the analytics community think that winning and losing close games is exclusively a function of luck, I find that naive. Certainly luck is involved — but there is interesting work by some folks analyzing college basketball analytics that suggests clutch time performance in close games is a skill. I find that argument persuasive — and I think team culture plays a role in establishing confidence or insecurity when the game is on the line. I concluded my thoughts on Florida State in my deep dive last year in this way: “Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility as last season demonstrated.” After losing those four close games, the Seminoles ended their season in an embarrassing 40-12 loss at Florida against a Gators team that had fired their head coach in October and was on a four-game losing streak. I think it’s fair to say that losing by 19 points to an in-state rival that finished the year with a 4-8 record is a sign of dysfunction culture. But don’t worry — because this time it’s different! Buoyed by new general manager John Garrett, Norvell has brought in 50 new players this year. That’ll fix it! Such a move begs the question: who was the bum that brought in all the bums the last two years? Of course, on paper, there is talent on the roster — especially at the skill positions. Yet for the third straight year, Norvell handpicked his (presumably) next starting quarterback from the transfer portal by tapping Ashton Daniels from Auburn. Norvell failed with D.J. Uigalelei (a blue-chip recruit at Clemson who demonstrated modest improvement at Oregon State) and then Tommy Castellanos last year (who ended the 2024 season by getting benched at Boston College by another supposed quarterback whisperer, Bill O’Brien). But this time, it’s different with Ashton Daniels. I’ll communicate without comment that Daniels was originally recruited by Stanford before transferring to Auburn to back up Jackson Arnold last year before that former blue-chipper got benched. In three starts for the Tigers, Daniels completed 57% of his passes with three touchdown passes and two interceptions. In Daniels' defense, he brings dual-threat running capabilities to the table — but those were also attributes of Uigalelei and Castellanos. Given the retirement of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, Norvell will return to calling the plays. What could go wrong? In other news, for the second straight season, Florida does not return a starter on the offensive line. And after having just one starter return on the defensive line last year, there are no returning starters this season. In hindsight, when the eulogies of the Norvell era are written, one of his biggest cardinal sins will be his near abandonment of controlling the talent-rich players who play high school football in Florida, especially at quarterback and both lines of scrimmage. At least the new head coach will be able to proclaim a renewed commitment to recruiting in-state. That new head coach will also need to address how to fix the lack of booster money in their NIL collective. After losing 18 of his last 25 games, Norvell is on the hot seat in his seventh year with the program. Maybe this time will be different and the magic of the 2023 season will re-emerge. But this would require player development that has simply not been demonstrated under Norvell. Maybe the momentum will change if they can simply win a close game or two? But upsetting Alabama last year was supposed to be the momentum changer that immediately returned Florida State to national prominence. Perhaps Norvell is the problem after all four of their games decided by eight points or less last season. In his tenure, the Seminoles have lost 11 of their 15 games against ranked opponents. No one can simply fiat good culture — and all the good vibes he earned from the undefeated regular season three years ago are now long gone. FRESNO STATE: The Bulldogs completed a 9-4 campaign last season with an 18-3 victory against Miami (OH) in the Arizona Bowl. It was the fourth nine-win season in the last five years for this program — and a nice bounce-back from a 6-7 record the year before under first-year head coach Matt Entz. This is a very good football coach who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC two years ago as their linebackers coach. He has assembled a nice coaching staff that continued to nurture improvement from their players as the season moved on. Entz is emphasizing building a similar culture that he established at North Dakota State. He saw the third fewest players leave in the transfer portal — and he is emphasizing enabling his homegrown players as he added only ten transfers designed to fill specific holes on the roster. This team has a clear identity. When Fresno State has the ball, offensive coordinator Josh Davis is committed to establishing the run and slowing down the tempo. On defense, the Bulldogs overcommit to stopping the run on standard downs and then aggressively defend against aerial attacks on passing downs. Nick Benedetto is a rising star as a defensive coordinator after doing a great job with Northern Illinois previously. The Bulldogs held their opponents to 285.7 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 18,8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 10th and 16th in the nation. Only Ohio State had a stingier pass defense as they held their opponents to just 153.8 passing YPG. Up front, they were tied for seventh in the FBS by giving up only nine rushing touchdowns. This unit should be excellent once again with six starters back and nine of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. The overall talent level remains an issue for Entz. This team was boom or bust last season. In their nine victories, their average winning score was 32.2-12.6. But when they faced opponents that could expose their tactics, they were not competitive, as their average losing score in their four losses was 32.8-11.3. How far this team can go this season will probably depend on whether they get improved play from the quarterback position. I was not a big fan of last year’s starter, E.J. Warner, so getting a dual-threat under center could really make a difference.GEORGIA TECH: The Yellow Jackets raced out to an 8-0 start last season before stumbling down the stretch by losing four of their last five games while missing out on playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their season ended in a 25-21 loss to BYU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in a game where they blew a 21-10 lead. There is plenty of turnover on both sides of the ball. The offense moves on from the graduation of senior starting quarterback Haynes King. The dual-threat three-year starter was the ACC Player of the Year last season. Three-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner took the same job at Texas. But fourth-year head coach Brent Kay was able to retain quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke and elevated him to co-offensive coordinator. He will be joined by former Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans offensive coordinator George Godsey. The former Georgia Tech quarterback has coached the tight ends for the Baltimore Ravens the last three seasons. Only three of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps on offense are back — but Kay was aggressive in the transfer portal. Sophomore Alberto Mendoza comes in from Indiana as the likely starter at quarterback after he backed up his brother, Fernando, for that national championship team last year. Key made a big splash by bringing in senior running back Justice Haynes from Michigan. The former Alabama blue chipper is a home run hitter who is always a threat to take it to the house. In his seven games last year in a season cut short by injuries, he rushed for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns — and he ran for at least 100 yards in six games. He joins junior Malachi Hosley, who rushed for 697 yards for the Yellow Jackets last season. This offense has the potential to be quite explosive in their ground game, as both these backs generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Carry last year. Kay is a former offensive lineman who would be quite content in establishing his offense’s identity as a physical and dominant run-first unit. The defense has their fourth defensive coordinator in four years, with former Southern Mississippi and Marshal defensive coordinator taking over the unit. Five starters are back along with 10 of the 21 players who logged at least 200 snaps last season. Kay brought in six transfers to bolster the talent and depth on the defensive line and another handful of transfers to replace the loss of five of their top six defensive linemen. All the player and coaching turnover will make things a challenge — but there is talent on this roster. HAWAI’I: Head coach Timmy Chang is building a unique and strong culture in his fifth season as the Rainbow Warriors head coach. The former quarterback in the early aughts operated the June Jones Run-and-Shoot offense that he has redeployed in his tenure. Hawai’i went 9-4 last season after ending their season with a 35-31 victory against California in the Hawai’i Bowl. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Micah Alejandro returns for his second season under center after completing 66% of his passes for 3106 yards with 24 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. The southpaw is very comfortable in this system after starring in a similar offense for Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. His quick release is what Chang wants in the four-wideout with two slot-back formation. Chang has 12 of the 32 players that logged in at least 200 snaps back this season. To bolster the roster, Chang brought in a handful of Power Four conference players who were underutilized at their previous school and looking for more time on the field. He also targeted several stars at smaller schools who may continue to shine at the FBS level. The wide receiver room added four transfers from Power Four conferences to join four-year starting slot receiver, Profile Ashlock. The defense lost 10 of their top 13 tacklers from last season — but third-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman operates an attacking scheme similar to the ones he assisted at the NFL level as a protege of Rex Ryan and then of the recent Baltimore Ravens with their multiple looks post-snap. ILLINOIS: The Fighting Illini followed up their 10-3 season in 2024 with a 9-4 campaign last season — it is the first time in program history that they have won 19 games in two seasons. Illinois has a 13-4 record in games decided by one-scoring possession in the last three seasons, so perhaps that is less a function of luck than it is head coach Bret Bielema’s game management and culture he has nurtured that his teams keep pulling out close games. The Illini did lead the nation in returning production last year — now only seven starters are back. The offense lost three-year starter Luke Altmyer to graduation — but Bielema tapped Katin Houser in the transfer portal from East Carolina, where he was a two-year starter. He completed 65.9% of his passes last season for 3300 yards with 19 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. The defense brings back only eight of the 22 players who logged at least 200 snaps, including only four of those 15 players in the front six. After defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left after three seasons to coach the defensive backs and serve as co-defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, Bielema turned to Montana head coach Bobby Hauck to install his aggressive 3-3-5 scheme, which will be a unique look in the Big Ten. JACKSONVILLE STATE: There were tons of turnover for the Gamecocks heading into last season after head coach Rich Rodriguez left to return to his previous head coaching gig at West Virginia — and 16 players were in the transfer portal during their bowl game. The program turned to Charles Kelly, a veteran defensive coach who had been with some top-level programs and was most recently the defensive coordinator at Auburn two years ago. The first-time head coach oversaw a 9-5 campaign where they reached the Conference USA Championship Game again before losing by a 19-15 score to Kennesaw State. Jacksonville State rebounded to beat Troy in the Salute to Veterans Bowl by a 17-13 score. When taking some inventory of this program after their first three seasons at the FBS level, the results are impressive. They have reached a bowl game all three years. They played in the conference championship games two years in a row, winning once. They have now engineered four-straight nine-win seasons. There was not a drop-off with Rodriguez exiting the program. Kelly pushed the right buttons — and his best decision was turning to redshirt sophomore Caden Creel as his new starting quarterback after a 2-3 start. The dual-threat passed for 1514 yards and added another 1076 rushing yards while leading the team to a 7-2 record with under center. He returns for his junior year as the leader of the offense. That unit lost first-team All-Conference USA running back Cam Cook, who transferred to West Virginia to play for Rodriguez — but the running back room is large, and the Gamecocks may replace his production via a committee. The defense returns five starters, with the secondary appearing to be the strength of the unit. On the other hand, despite a 7-1 record in Conference USA, Jacksonville State only outgained those opponents by +22 net Yards-Per-Game. A deeper dive into their strength of schedule reveals an easy set of opponents that were fortunate to outlast. They earned their first win of the season against a Liberty team that struggled early in the season before righting their ship — and yet they got outgained in their 10-point victory by a 534-390 yardage margin. Their second win was against FCS opponent Murray State, before rallying from a fourth quarter deficit against Sam Houston State with a walk-off 52-yard field goal. They earned their fourth victory against Delaware despite getting outgained by a 456-388 yardage margin. They then won two coin flip games against Middle Tennessee and UTEP by three points each. In their regular season victory against Kennesaw State, they got outgained by a 579-451 margin in yards. They went 3-1 on the road in conference play with the victories by just a combined eight points against UTEP, Sam Houston State, and Middle Tennessee State that finished in the bottom three places in the standings with a combined 4-20 record. The Gamecocks also benefited from a +10 net turnover margin along the way, tying for the 10th best mark in the nation. Kelly focused on finding diamonds in the rough at the Division II level to fill roster holes. Perhaps that approach was smart and appropriate for this Group of Six program. After three years of high-level success, perhaps there is little reason to suspect that Jacksonville State will suddenly take a step back now, especially after rolling with the punches last season. But if this team does take a step or two back in 2026, perhaps the writing was on the wall from the handful of good breaks and favorable scheduling that went their way. MASSACHUSETTS: The Minutemen enter the season on a 16-game losing streak with an average losing margin of -26.8 Points-Per-Game. In head coach Joe Harasymiak’s first season with the program, they went 0-12 while getting outgained by -165 net Yards-Per-Game. The offense was last in the FBS by generating only 11.1 PPG — and they only scored 11 touchdowns all season. The defense was also last in the nation by surrendering 38.6 PPG. It is hard to put too much blame on Harasymiak, as the team was ravaged by injuries. During the year, 30 different players missed time because of injuries, testing what was always going to be questionable depth. Things got so bad that not only did practice squad players have to start games, but even Harasymiak himself had to play safety on the practice squad to ensure 11 on 11. It is going to take time to turn around a program that has not won more than four games since joining the FBS in 2011. Harasymiak is building the program the right way by prioritizing high school recruiting. The hope is that they can develop a niche in attracting quality FBS talent in the northeast that may not be talented enough for Power Four conferences but can give them an edge in the Mid-American Conference, with most of those programs recruited from the same Midwest talent. Harasymiak was also busy in the transfer portal attempting to upgrade the talent and depth on the roster. He brought in 15 players in the portal on offense and another 16 players on defense, including six from Power Four conferences. Despite the losses, the template for how Harasymiak wants his team to play was apparent. Massachusetts ranked 23rd in the nation in penalties per game and 62nd in turnovers per game. Often playing with two-tight end sets, the goal is to win the physical battle at the line of s scrimmage. Bringing in former Bowling Green co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Max Warner should help with those endeavors. The talent on both sides of the ball looks better. Their modest goals of winning a few games and being more competitive in the MAC are attainable. MEMPHIS: The Tigers are essentially a brand-new team this season, with one offensive lineman being the only starter back from a squad that finished 8-5. They lost their final three games amidst rumors that Ryan Silverfield would be leaving the program at the end of the season, as he did when he accepted the head coaching job at Arkansas. In comes Charles Huff, who led Southern Mississippi to a 7-6 record in his first season after inheriting a team that went 1-11. Like he did when he departed from the head coaching job at Marshall, he brought a ton of players with him. Memphis could be renamed Southern Miss North this year with 17 of his Golden Eagles players taking the four-hour drive up I-55. Overall, Huff brought in 53 players in the transfer portal. He has an interesting background. He was an assistant running backs coach in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills under Chan Gailey early in his career. He was the special teams coordinator and running backs coach at Penn State under James Franklin, where he helped recruit and develop Saquon Barkley. He later got tapped by Nick Saban to serve as an associate head coach and running backs coach at Alabama, where he played an integral role with Najee Harris. He then became the head coach at Marshall in 2021. After winning the Sun Belt Conference in 2024, the failure to agree on a contract extension motivated his decision to depart for Southern Mississippi last year. He is known as a culture builder and great recruiter. Fueled by FedEx money, Memphis has a vibrant NIL program. The foundation of the defense will consist of 11 transfers from Southern Miss, including seven players who logged in at least 225 snaps and four of whom were full-time starters. Lance Guidry is the defensive coordinator after serving in that role for Huff at Marshall from 2021-2022 and then Miami (FL) from 2022-2024. On offense, Huff turned to Old Dominion offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, who directed an explosive up-tempo spread offense last season.MIAMI (FL): Despite losses to Louisville and SMU in the regular season, the Hurricanes' season-opening victory against Notre Dame was enough to finally make the college football playoffs in head coach Mario Cristobal’s tenure — but the team took off from there. After surviving a close, low-scoring contest against Texas A&M, they upset Ohio State in the quarterfinals before outlasting Ole Miss in the semifinals. They were competitive but eventually could not match Indiana in a 27-21 loss in the national championship game. Now expectations are sky high for Cristobal in his fifth year with his alma mater. He has done a nice job of assembling and retaining talent. But I think it would be premature to assume that this program has instantly entered the status of Alabama, Georgia, and the Buckeyes as near automatic entries into a 12-team playoff. Miami (FL) lost nine players to the NFL draft last April. Cristobal has yet to prove that his talent acquisitions are reloads rather than rebuilds. The strength of this team by the time the playoffs started was on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The offensive line is replacing four starters — and Cristobal brought in only linemen in the transfer portal, so maintaining the high standard they set last season is dependent on the staff’s identification of top-tier talent and their ability to coach these players up quickly. The defensive line loses star pass rushers Rueben Bain and Akeem Mesidor, who both got picked in the first round of the NFL draft. The offense should be more explosive with Duke transfer Darian Mensah under center — he completed 66.8% of his passes for 3973 yards with 34 touchdown passes and just six interceptions for the Blue Devils last season. He replaces Carson Beck, who was somewhat limited and threw too many interceptions. On paper, there are lots of talented playmakers on both sides of the ball. However, how much of a drop-off can this team afford on the offensive and defensive lines before it starts losing the close games they eked out last season? They won four of their seven games last year decided by seven points or less, including two victories in the playoffs. There are a couple of red flags on the horizon warning about this team taking a step back. While Cristobal is committed to high school recruiting, he is very active in the transfer portal. While there is a sugar high of bringing in attractive outside talent, it does risk disrupting the culture of the team. Not only are the new players unknowns when it comes to their fit inside the locker room, but every starting job taken by an outsider could lead to disgruntlement by the veteran returnees who did not see their loyalty to the program rewarded. If Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State remain the standard of excellence, it is worth noting that those programs are using the portal a bit more sporadically to fill specific holes while prioritizing their homegrown talent. I will also say that just because the Hurricanes did not blow any big leads or experience any meltdowns in game management in the playoffs, that does not mean those issues will never rear it’s ugly head ever again under Cristobal’s watch. MICHIGAN STATE: The patient rebuild underway with head coach Jonathan Smith abruptly ended after two seasons, with the administration firing him after a 4-8 campaign that included only one victory in Big Ten play. In my deep dive of this team last year, I thought Smith was doing a fine job of rebuilding the program but probably needed one more year before the Spartans would really start to become dangerous. Smith inherited a massive rebuild from the Mel Tucker era, who was relying on the sugar high from the transfer portal (when he was not sexually harassing the woman he hired to educate his players about sexual harassment). Tucker neglected high school recruiting in his tenure. The program had hit rock bottom. There were rumors that the culture of the football team remained troublesome, but that only makes the hire of former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald even more puzzling. Fitzgerald was fired by the Wildcats in 2022 due to hazing and sexual abuse behaviors from his football team. Yet, like control freaks like Rick Pitino and Jim Harbaugh, Fitzgerald knew absolutely nothing about what was going on with his team. Bringing in a guy who was literally fired for culture issues to fix the culture of the football program seems problematic. Then again, Fitzgerald should be able to provide immediate help to basketball coach Tom Izzo as he begins his eighth year of his Listening Tour regarding the multiple accusations of sexual violence against his players. Admittedly, a little hazing and sexual abuse may not match the literal criminal assault and battery charges that several Michigan State football players received for attacking their opponents in the ramp way to the locker room after losing a football game. So, I’m kinda skeptical. But even ignoring all that, there are plenty of reasons to doubt Fitzgerald’s ability to succeed at this program in 2026. While he was able to turn the perpetual doormats at Northwestern into a winning program, things were moving in the wrong direction in the final years of his 17-season tenure. The Wildcats went 14-31 in his final four seasons — and they were just 4-20 in his last two seasons (certainly bad enough to get fired by these current Michigan State administrators. It may not be a coincidence that this slide coincided with the retirement of his longtime elite defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz in 2020. Fitzgerald’s firing in 2022 took place as the college football landscape was changing due to NIL and the transfer portal. But not only did Fitzgerald not prove himself to build a healthy culture and winning program at the Group of Five level, but he has been removed from dealing with the changing environment of building and maintaining a college football team. Instead, he sat at home for three years before getting this promotion. On the plus side, he has assembled a coaching staff that looks great on paper — and he was wise to retain Joe Rossi as the defensive coordinator entering his third season. But only five starters are back from last season and 43 players left in the transfer portal, so Fitzgerald had to aggressively bring in players in the portal to begin the second big reset of this football program in the last three years. Depth on both sides of the ball is going to be an issue this season, especially on the offensive line and at defensive tackle. NEW MEXICO STATE: In my deep dive on the Aggies last year, I speculated that perhaps their reaching the Conference USA championship game in 2023 may have been mostly a result of the brilliance of former head coach Jerry Kill, rather than foundational reasons inherent in the football program. Health issues have held Kill back from a potentially brilliant head coaching career. He left for Vanderbilt the next season along with quarterback Diego Pavia to become the chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor. Without a great set of options, wide receivers coach Tony Sanchez was elevated to head coach. On paper, he had been the head coach at UNLV for five seasons, and he was an alum of the university. On the other hand, he was a high school coach at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas before getting the UNLV job — and his tenure there was spotty, at best. After 3-9 and then 4-8 seasons last year, Sanchez is on the hot seat in his third year with the program. The talent on the roster is a question. They may have gotten too cute with relying on junior college transfers. While that is a valuable source of talent for a program like New Mexico State, it’s tough to depend too much on players coming from the junior college ranks. Kill recruited Pavia from junior college — so perhaps the thinking became they could find lightning in a bottle again? Sanchez seems to understand the problem. Of the 36 new players he brought in, 26 are transfers, six are high school recruits, and only four are juco transfers. But there are fundamental problems to fix — and it starts with the offensive line. The Aggies were last in the FBS by averaging only 77.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game and generating just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. They also surrendered 34 sacks. The offense ranked 113th in the FBS by averaging only 327.9 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense needs to get more pressure on the quarterback after only registering 19 sacks last year. Who knows what last year would have looked like if not for their defense forcing 24 turnovers, tied for the 14th most in the FBS. That helped them rank 64th in the nation in Points Allowed per Drive despite also ranking 96th by giving up 401.8 total YPG. But relying on turnovers is dangerous since fumble and interception luck tends to be fickle. After a 3-2 start to the season, New Mexico State lost six of their last seven games — and they got outgained by Conference USA opponents by -76 YPG. It is hard to be too optimistic when the biggest problems for a football program are both sides of the line of scrimmage. That is an area that is very easy to fall behind on — and it becomes very hard to reverse that slide. NORTH CAROLINA: In my deep dive on this program in the first year of the Bill Belichick era, I came to the conclusion that strong skepticism was warranted regarding whether or not the 73-year-old legendary head coach would immediately turn around a middling program that had played in six straight bowl games but had not enjoyed a 10-win campaign since 2015. Maybe the year off from coaching changed the priorities of a future NFL Hall of Famer in the twilight of his life with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He had become a media star on multiple platforms. He had a 24-year-old girlfriend that he empowered to be his social media agent. All the drama … it was definitely no longer the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it was time to work on football, he was putting in 100% effort. But was the fire in the belly still there? After a dismal 4-8 campaign last season, we got some answers. The hype from general manager Mile Lombardi regarding their scouting and recruiting techniques for the transfer portal and high schools was demonstrated to be nonsense. The offense was a mess that generated just 288.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 19.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking 129th and 118th in the FBS, respectively. Lombardi is still around this year — as is the now 25-year-old girlfriend. Any deference Belichick deserved that he has the magic touch should now be disregarded. Serious questions exist as to whether he can adapt his Super Bowl-winning tactics to (non-elite) college players. In particular, the defense struggled with basic fundamentals like tackling, alignment, and communication — all intangibles that perhaps could be taken for granted at the professional level. Of course, it was son, Steve, coordinating the defense, which begs the question as to whether Belichick is more concerned with building the best coaching staff possible or simply finding a group of cronies in his recent mix of nepotism and “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though the Browns never elevated him to higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator in his tenure there). Unsurprisingly, Kitchens was a flop — and now he is gone. But Belichick has replaced him with former Arkansas, Louisville, and Atlanta Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino. Granted, Petrino is still considered a great offensive mind for college football. And the 65-year-old can share with Belichick not only the latest tips from the AARP newsletters but also all his tawdry stories from his dangerous liaisons. But is Petrino a good fit — both schematically, given Belichick’s defense-first philosophy, and interpersonally, since both of these egos have long assumed they are the smartest guy in the room? I know which of the two has the resume to back it up. On the field, the Tar Heels will probably let former Maryland starting quarterback Billy Edwards initially run the offense after transferring from Wisconsin after an injury-riddled season. The senior has arm strength and experience in offenses similar to Petrino’s approach, but his ceiling is perhaps lower than some of the younger quarterbacks on the roster. The offensive line does not return even one regular starter from last season. Despite the issues with basic fundamentals, the defense was their strongest unit last season — they ranked 38th in the FBS by holding their opponents to 336.9 total YPG. But while they did not allow more than 15 points in four of their victories, they surrendered 30 or more points five times. On the plus side, they made good adjustments that were tailored to their opponent from week-to-week — and they held those foes to -26 YPG below their season average. But only three starters are back, so Belichick hit the waiver wire for new talent, including two transfers from Richmond in the Patriot League, so what could go wrong? Petrino running a Bill Belichick offense- what could go wrong? Taking on TCU, Clemson, and Notre Dame in three of their first four games -- what could go wrong? By the end of the day on Saturday, October 3rd, the media narrative may either be about Belichick’s Redemption Tour or impending retirement after being a monumental flop at the college level. There is a lot at stake for this program early in the season, which is not ideal given all the turnover in players and coaches. It’s hard to be wildly optimistic. NORTH CAROLINA STATE: The Wolfpack have been remarkably consistent under head coach Dave Doeren. They have won at least eight games in five of their last six seasons. Unfortunately, while the floor ends up being relatively high for this program, they also tend to underachieve when the expectations are higher for them. NC State has never enjoyed a 10-win season under Doeren — but at least they earned their first win in a bowl game for the first time since 2017 when they beat Memphis in the Gasparilla Bowl by a 31-7 score. On the other hand, they have a losing 7-9 record in official ACC games the last two seasons — and they got outgained by -52 net Yards-Per-Game against their nine ACC opponents last season. The Wolfpack do bring back C.J. Bailey for his third year as their starting quarterback. He continued to improve last season by completing 68.8% of his passes for 3105 yards. He threw for 25 touchdowns and added another six TDs with his legs. He should continue to get better in another season under second-year offensive coordinator Kurt Roper. Bailey’s top four pass catchers are now gone, but Doeren hit the transfer portal and brought in eight new players, including seven from Power Four conferences. The defense lost eight of the top 12 tacklers from last season and returns only two starters. The team brought in transfers on this side of the ball as well — but the unit is trending in the wrong direction. After ranking 29th in the nation by holding their opponents to 332.1 total YPG, they have given up 390.8 YPG and 411.9 YPG in the last two seasons, with that latter mark ranking 109th in the nation last year. NORTH DAKOTA STATE: The Bison made the jump to the FBS and the Mountain West Conference this season. History suggests that good FCS programs can find immediate success at the FBS level. Jacksonville State won nine games in its debut FBS season. Delaware and Missouri State each kicked off with 7-6 campaigns. James Madison almost immediately rose to the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt Conference. Liberty has dominated. Even Kennesaw State and Sam Houston reached double-digit victories in their second season. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that a North Dakota State program that has won 10 of the last 15 FCS championships would immediately contend for the Mountain West crown. The Bison have a 9-5 straight-up record against FBS teams since 2004. Third-year head coach Tim Polasek has compiled a 26-3 record in his tenure. They looked poised for another deep run in the FCS playoffs before getting upset by Illinois State due to some late-game heroics in the second round. On paper, this year’s team does not look quite as strong. North Dakota State lost four-year starting quarterback Nathan Hayes to the NFL. The wide receiver room must replace six of the eight players who caught at least seven receptions, including FCS All-American Bryce Lance. The defense returns five starters from a unit that held their opponents to just 251.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in only 13.0 Points-Per-Game, both the best marks in the FCS. The Bison have proven they know how to recruit and develop players into their system. They know their next men up better than anyone. There is a good chance they felt comfortable enough about this year’s squad to pay exorbitant NCAA entry fees to make the transition to the FBS now. OHIO: The Bobcats continued to simply keep rolling last season with a 9-4 record — and they outgained their Mid-American Conference opponents by +93 net Yards-Per-Game while winning six of those eight games. They have gone 40-14 in the last two seasons. After a 16-year run from legendary head coach Frank Solich concluded, the transition to offensive coordinator Tim Albin for four seasons at head coach was seamless. When Albin left to become the head coach at Charlotte, the program looked internally again and elevated offensive coordinator Brian Smith to head coach last season. But cracks have been beginning to show, with significant losses in the transfer portal the last two seasons. And then the administration abruptly fired Smith for cause at the end of the regular season. It turns out that Smith was a train wreck off the field with bouts of public intoxication as well as some bad-looking womanizing, including a relationship with a student that no system of higher learning can tolerate. Yet defensive coordinator John Hauser was able to maintain the focus of his football and the long-established culture of this Ohio program by leading the Bobcats to a 17-10 victory over UNLV in the Frisco Bowl, their seventh-straight bowl victory. Hauser was hired as their next coach — but how much can the strong foundations of this football program withstand? Only five starters return from last year’s squad, including just one on offense. The offense lost running back Sith Bangura to graduation after he rushed for 1392 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. On paper, there appears to be a lack of playmakers at running back and wide receiver. The Bobcats are also replacing the graduated Parker Navarro after he was their starter under center for the last two seasons. The offensive line is completely retooled via the transfer portal — depth and cohesion are significant questions for this unproven unit. The defense should be in better shape with five starters back along with some intriguing transfers. Charlotte co-defensive coordinator Mattix returns to the program after leaving with Albin for the 49ers last season — he brings years of experience in the Ohio culture. As usual, the coaching staff nurtured steady improvement from this unit as the season went on. After surrendering 425 Yards-Per-Game in their first four games, they held their final six opponents to 305 total YPG. With Hauser taking over the program, the continuity of the culture remains — but how much turnover can this team take before it begins to impact their play on the field? OKLAHOMA: After two losing seasons in the previous three seasons heading into last year, head coach Brent Venables was on the hot seat in his fourth year with the program. It’s a wonder how job security will change someone’s supposed principles. After once being the self-anointed supposed morality police lecturing Deion Sanders regarding the sins of the transfer portal, Venables went all-in on the transfer portal last season to save his job, helped by new full-time general manager Jim Nagy, who previously ran the Senior Bowl. But the change of philosophy worked as the Sooners made the college football playoff for the first time since 2019. The Oklahoma defense was the best it has been in Venables' tenure. The Sooners limited their opponents to 272.5 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 15.5 Points-Per-Game, ranking sixth and seventh in the nation, respectively. They led the nation by generating 3.46 sacks per game. Part of Venables' desperation last season also manifested itself in his taking over as defensive coordinator and calling the plays on game day. The former Clemson defensive coordinator for their two national championships last decade remains one of the best in the business. From disguising blitz coverages on game day to changing the pre-snap looks from week to week, Venables' thumbprint on the defense made a significant difference. Former Washington State quarterback John Mateer looked to be the needed difference-maker on offense early in the season when he completed 67% of his passes for 1215 yards in September. But he was never the same after suffering a thumb injury in his throwing hand — Oklahoma never generated even 400 total yards in a game after he returned from that setback. In theory, the hope is that Mateer’s return to full health will allow the Sooners’ offense to return to their September form this season. However, the offensive line was never up to snuff last year, and Oklahoma only generated 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The running back room was also a question — it is not a good sign when your quarterback leads the team in rushing attempts as Mateer did last season. By the end of the season, three freshmen were starting on the offensive line — and the plan is that, from the development of the freshmen and sophomores forced onto the field last season and five transfer players Venables and Nagy brought into the program, that side of the ball will be playoff-worthy. That said, there are red flags. The Sooners got outgained by their SEC foes by -16 net Yards-Per-Game, despite their 6-2 record in conference play. And despite playing at home in the first round of the playoffs with an extra week of rest against Alabama, Oklahoma blew an early 17-0 lead and got outclassed by the Crimson Tide in a 34-24 loss (despite winning the yardage battle by a 362-200 margin). That Alabama team would then move on to get thoroughly embarrassed in the quarterfinals in a 38-3 loss against Indiana in the Rose Bowl. There are at least a dozen college football programs that consider it their birthright to qualify for the expanded playoff every season — but getting their once is no guarantee that a spot will suddenly become permanently saved for former blue bloods. The Sooners' schedule is brutal — and the wheels could fall off quickly if things do start their way. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the culture trolling that Venables felt the need to initiate would end up being the downfall of a season of such high expectations? RUTGERS: Expectations were pretty high last year for the Scarlet Knights following a second straight 7-6 campaign and bowl game. In his sixth year in his second stint as the Rutgers head coach, it was generally assumed that Greg Schiano had assembled his most talented roster yet in this second run. The offense was moving in the right direction under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca. And while the defense took a step back after they surrendered 31.4 PPG in their final eight contests. They had eight starters back from the unit that ranked 16th in the nation in total defense in 2023, so it was reasonable to think that the 2024 disappointing season was an outlier. But instead, the Scarlet Knights defense hit rock bottom by giving up 432.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 31.8 PPG, ranking 125th and 115th in the FBS, respectively. The deeper analytics confirm the dreadful efforts. They ranked 131st in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and last in the FBS in Yards Allowed per Successful Play Allowed. Their run defense gave up 209.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 129th in the nation. And while playing in the Big Ten is a tough challenge, giving up 7.1 Yards-Per-Carry is inexcusable. What happened? Schiano did have to replace defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak, who took the lead coaching job at Massachusetts — but reuniting with Robb Smith, who was the defensive coordinator for Schiano at Rutgers in 2012 and then again in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, seemed like a good solution. It wasn’t, and Schiano took over running the defense by midseason. There was improvement — but the problem went beyond coaching. Schiano only had two defensive starters back last year — so he gambled on the transfer portal. It didn’t work. While injuries played a role, the talent level was simply not Big Ten-worthy. Nine of the top 11 tacklers from last year are now gone — and only two of the 17 players who logged in at least 100 snaps are back. Considering the drop-off in talent last season, maybe that is not a bad thing? But it does mean that Schiano has to play the roulette wheel in the transfer portal again — and he is doing that after completely rehabbing the defensive coaching staff. The new defensive coordinator is former South Dakota defensive coordinator Travis Johansen, who ran the Coyotes defense from 2019 to 2024 before getting elevated to head coach last season. Finding a good culture is always a question when a new coaching staff interacts with a slew of new players entering the program — and the depth issues remain. The offense must replace quarterback Athan Kialakmonis, who enjoyed one of the most successful two-year runs at that position in program history. There is talent on the roster — particularly wide receiver K.J. Duff and running back Antwan Raymond. But as I warned in my deep dive on this team last year: “The roster appears to be the most talented since Schiano returned — but getting all the transfer players on the same page with the established culture is easier said than done.” The Scarlet Knights have had eight winning seasons in the last 13 years with Schiano as their head coach, going back to his first stint with the program. In contrast, the football team has just two winning seasons in the last 16 years with any other head coach. It is very hard to win at Rutgers. But the university’s lack of commitment to the program and NIL may be simply too much for Schiano to overcome with hard-nosed coaching.SACRAMENTO STATE: The plan for this football program for 2026 was to operate as an independent at the FCS level. But when the powers that be decided to get out their checkbook and pay the big fees to the NCAA and the Mid-American Conference to elevate the Hornets to the FBS and join the MAC, first-year head coach Alonzo Carter’s roster was mostly stuck since the transfer portal had already closed. Carter scrambled after spring practice by adding 13 junior college transfers, but overall roster depth and size on both sides of the line of scrimmage are going to be question marks in their maiden season in the FBS. While Delaware and Missouri State made bowl games in their debut at the FBS level, Sacramento State is not nearly as experienced as those two squads were. Only five starters are back from the Hornets team that finished 7-5 last year under head coach Brennan Marion. The architect of the Go-Go offense departed to run the offense for Deion Sanders at Colorado. Carter has been a longtime assistant coach for Brent Brennan at San Jose State and then Arizona most recently. His most significant addition in the transfer portal was junior quarterback Carson Conklin, who returns to the program after transferring to Fresno State, where he played as a backup until the end of the season when he got starting time. In his two seasons with the Hornets, he completed 62% of his passes while tossing 28 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions. Conklin was named a freshman FCS All-American with Sacramento State. The expectation is that he will oversee a balanced attack that runs the ball more than they did in Marion’s Go-Go passing attack.SAN JOSE STATE: Former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last year, replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan two years ago. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann, who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. After three straight seven-win seasons, expectations were high in Niumatalolo’s second season at San Jose State. But after a 2-point loss against Central Michigan to begin the season and a 2-point loss at Stanford three games later, injuries became too much to overcome in a campaign that spiraled to a 3-9 record. Senior quarterback Walker Eget played through a torn ACL all season. Their -13 net turnover margin tied for the second-worst in the FBS and played a major role in their four upset losses. It was the Spartans’ first sub-.500 record since 2021 and their worst record since 2018. While some of the injured players return, the 2026 squad is making almost a complete reset. There are no returning starters on defense. Niumatalolo brought in ten transfers, but many are coming from the FCS ranks. Only two starters are back on offense for a unit that remained productive operating their run-and-shoot attack as they ranked second in the Mountain West Conference, despite generating almost 40 Yards-Per-Game than in 2024 when they ranked fifth in the FBS by averaging 321.8 passing YPG. After spring practice, the quarterback position remained unsettled. There is a lot of uncertainty in the third season under Niumatalolo — but he has led teams to overachieve expectations many times before. STANFORD: After four straight 3-9 campaigns, the Cardinal did improve to a 4-8 mark last year under interim head coach Frank Reich. The former head coach for the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers was brought in by general manager Andrew Luck to stabilize the program after previous head coach Travis Taylor was fired in late March last year for allegations of mistreating female employees. Despite a 3-5 record in conference play, those ACC opponents outgained them by -97 net Yards-Per-Game. Moving forward, Luck is leaning in on the importance of Stanford ties in his decision to hire Tavita Pritchard as the head coach. Like Luck, Pritchard played quarterback at Stanford under head coach Jim Harbaugh. He was Luck’s backup in his senior year back in 2009. Pritchard served as the Cardinal’s offensive coordinator from 2010 to 2022. For the last three seasons, he has been the quarterbacks coach for the Washington Commanders. He brought in Terry Heffernan as his offensive coordinator, who was the offensive line coach at Stanford from 2021-22. Most recently, Heffernan was the offensive line coach and run-game coordinator at Virginia the last three seasons. Pritchard did look outside the Stanford family for his defensive coordinator — but he continued to prioritize NFL experience by tapping Kris Richard to run the defense. Richard was the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks from 2015 to 2017. He was then the co-defensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints from 2021-22. Most recently, he has been the defensive backs coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Seven starters are back on defense that ranked 103rd in the nation by surrendering 408.2 total YPG. In their four victories, the Cardinal held their opponents to 18.0 Points-Per-Game — but in their eight losses, they gave up 34.8 PPG. The offense has seven starters back. Pritchard looked to the extended Stanford family by bringing Davis Warren at quarterback, who had been a walk-on at Michigan when Harbaugh was their head coach. Warren started nine games in 2024 for the Wolverines — he completed 64% of his passes for 1199 yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. Understanding the context for his playing time is important. Warren was a solid high school quarterback before suffering from Leukemia. He recovered and was preparing to start for his high school team his senior year before that 2020 season was wiped out because of COVID. He made the football team at Michigan as a walk-on, which was a great story. He progressed well — but he was making up for lots of years of not getting on the field in real games. His being named the starter on game day of their return to action as the defending national champions was a surprise. In hindsight, I think the plan was to turn to former Indiana starting quarterback Jack Tuttle as the replacement for J.J. McCarthy — he was a seventh-year senior with a similar skill set. But Tuttle could never get healthy enough to get on the field until late in the season. Junior Alex Orji was an intriguing talent at 6’3 as he was a dynamic running threat — but his accuracy in the passing game was inconsistent, at best. The Wolverines were unable to develop him as a passer or develop a specific game plan around his talents. In hindsight, we now have a better understanding as to just how dysfunctional that program became under head coach Sherrone Moore. All of this is to say Warren really had no business being on the field that season — and Michigan brought in two experienced quarterbacks in the transfer portal to join Warren in backing up five-star freshman Bryce Underwood — moves that both suggest that they did not trust Warren even last year and that they never wanted to experience resorting to someone like him again if Plans A and B failed. Warren played in some big-time games that season — and he certainly deserves tons of credit for toughness and perseverance for everything he went through. Perhaps Pritchard and Heffernan can get the most out of his talents. But the physical running game that Harbaugh successfully oversaw here before taking the head coaching job with the San Francisco 49ers has become a thing of the past for this program. Last season, they averaged just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry from non-sack rushing attempts, ranking 132nd in the FBS. In the last five years, the Cardinal has a 9-5 winning record against teams ranked 80th or worse using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings — but they have lost 39 of the remaining 46 games against opponents that ranked inside the top 80 in SP+. That is the challenge Pritchard inherits. TCU: It feels like a crossroads season for head coach Sonny Dykes in his fifth year with the program. On the one hand, the Horned Frogs have won 36 games in his tenure and reached the National Championship Game. And while they have registered two straight 9-4 campaigns, TCU has never really competed for a Big 12 championship or been a threat to return to the College Football Playoff. They did end on a high note last year by winning their last three contests, culminating in a 30-27 victory against USC in the Alamo Bowl. But many of the key pieces from that team are now gone. The offense lost senior quarterback Josh Hoover, who transferred to Indiana. The wide receiving room lost three of their top four targets, including All-Big 12 wideout Eric McAlister. The defense lost leaders at each level of the unit with three players getting drafted into the NFL. Eight of the top 14 tacklers are back for a unit that took a step back by surrendering 378.7 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 73rd in the FBS. Third-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos oversaw a run defense that ranked 19th in the nation in Yards-Per-Carried Allowed. But a near non-existent pass rush exposed a secondary that ranked 109th in Yards-Per-Dropback Allowed. This unit ranked 131st in the FBS when defending third down and 11 or more yards. The biggest changes are on offense. Dykes turned to Harvard graduate senior Jaden Craig in the transfer portal. The 6’3, 230-lb NFL prospect threw for 6074 yards with 52 touchdown passes and just 12 interceptions in three seasons. After Hoover threw 33 interceptions in 31 starts wants to reduce the mistakes and turnovers on offense. He tapped Connecticut offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis after the Huskies threw only one interception last season. Sammis deploys a more balanced offense that has the quarterback under center and emphasizes a physical running game to complement the passing attack. Junior running back Jeremy Payne rushed for 476 yards on 6.4 YPC in his last five games — and the plan is to lean on him more, which should also help give the defense more breathers. TOLEDO: The Rockets are in a season of transition after Jason Candle left for another mid-major program, Connecticut. Toledo has been consistently inconsistent in the ten years under Candle. On the one hand, Candle usually has the most talented team in the Mid-American Conference. But they have only won two MAC championships in his tenure, with too many upset losses getting in the way. Last year, the Rockets went 6-2 in conference play despite outgaining those opponents by +176 net Yards-Per-Game. They finished 8-5 on the season after a 27-22 loss to Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl. Toledo has not experienced a losing season in 16 seasons — and they bring in a new head coach who has not had a losing season in a head coaching career at the lower levels of college football since his debut in 2016. Mike Jacobs has been at Mercer the last two seasons, where he led the Bears to straight playoff appearances. He elevated that program with a 20-6 mark over that span, including a 15-1 mark against fellow Southern Conference opponents. He is creating a brand new team essentially after only one starter returns for the Rockets from last year. Jacobs did a lot of work in the portal that 247 Sports rated the best portal class in the MAC. But most of the influx of talent comes from the lower ranks as 27 new players come from smaller schools, including 14 from Mercer. In all, there are nearly 50 new players in the program, including 36 from the portal — but Jacobs will benefit from Candle’s third straight outstanding freshman class that was rated the best in the conference. There are good players coming into the program — and there are plenty of success stories of veteran FCS players performing well at the FBS level. But it is hard not to consider this Toledo team “Mercer North” this season. While Candle’s programs may have consistently underachieved expectations, those expectations were high because of the talent base on the roster. There were 17 Rocket players that were All-MAC selections last year. Candle’s recruiting has been so good because he helps nurture player development for guys who go on to play on Sunday — especially in the defensive backfield where Toledo has become a factory of future NFL talent. There is going to be an immediate drop in talent — and then Jacobs has to demonstrate he can continue to attract the quality of players that Candle was able to do. Jacobs and much of his coaching staff do have Ohio roots. Winning programs tend to hire winning coaches. On paper, that phenomenon has continued for the fans at the Glass Bowl.UAB: In six seasons under head coach Bill Clark, who resurrected a dormant program that went dark after its 2014 season. From 2017 through 2022, the Blazers averaged 8.3 wins per season. But after Clark retired, the powers that be concluded that what the football team needed now was a former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, ESPN personality, Elite-11 high school quarterback’s coach, and a private high school football head coach. So, they gave the keys to the program to Trent Dilfer. After losing 21 of his first 30 games, Dilfer was fired six games into last year’s season. It turns out the skills Dilfer brought to the table those experiences had nothing to do with establishing a winning culture for a college football team or managing a collegiate roster in the modern era — and perhaps those professional experiences Dilfer had enjoyed were even antithetical to what was needed at a program like UAB. But breaking old habits is hard to do as the program turned to nepo-baby Alex Mortensen, the son of former ESPN NFL gossip stenographer Chris Mortensen, as their next head coach. Mortensen’s coaching experience consisted of being plucked from the multitudes who considered their dream job to work for Nick Saban at Alabama in 2014 to finally being promoted from getting coffee to offensive analyst for the Crimson Tide in 2020. Three years later, Dilfer thought that was enough experience to warrant him running his offense. Granted, it was a better decision than Dilfer’s decision to elevate his high school defensive coordinator to the same position when he moved to UAB. But does Dilfer even hire Mortensen if he was not doing segments on “can Russ still cook” with his Dad filling airtime on ESPN in 2022? It looks bad because it’s bad. To be fair, perhaps the prudent short-term move for the football program was to maintain the continuity with him sticking on this season, albeit at a much friendlier salary, which can allow for more money in their trailing NIL program. Certainly, if Mortensen’s dad had not made a living peddling gossip folks like Saban wanted elevated in the discourse, he would not have stumbled forward into the position. On the other hand, amazing things can happen when you are the raging jerk inside the building that the previous boss was. So here we are: Alex Mortensen is the head coach of an FBS program. Yes, I worry he may be in over his head. But when football is built in your blood like it was for Mortensen … I can see the same argument being made now for whatever spawn Adam Schefter has inflicted on our wounded planet. Of course, Mortensen will continue to call the plays on offense, because why let being underqualified for the position stop you now! He did bring in a professional football coach to run the defense in Todd Grantham, who was the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State last season. Sure, it says something when you are accepting the DC job at UAB — but with plenty of NFL coaching experience as well as four years as the defensive coordinator at Florida, this is a legendary hire when compared to tapping the defensive coordinator from a Division II, Class AAA program from the Tennessee Secondary School Athletic Association, even as a two-time state champion (somebody’s gotta beat Montgomery Bell Academy, yet again). Mortensen leaned heavily on the transfer portal with 39 new players added to the roster — but that is what Dilfer was trying to do, as well. Maybe this time it’s different! Two starters return from last year’s 4-8 squad — so handicapping UAB in the preseason is mostly assessing the coaching staff. The culture should be better, because it can’t get much worse, so Mortensen not immediately blaming someone else for ruining his gig should represent an improvement. The Blazers did win two of their six games when he took over — and they only got outgained by -12 Yards-Per-Game in the American Conference despite a 2-6 conference record. But this is a much different coaching situation than even 2017, when Bill Clark had stayed on despite two dormant years, fighting to save the spirit and culture of this football program. I’m not sure he has children, but if he did, I’m not sure his “masculine childs” (to quote The Godfather) would be given the opportunity to learn about football under Nick Saban, like other fortunate sons. UNLV: The Rebels reached the Mountain West Conference championship game for the third straight season — and they have a 30-12 record during that stretch. However, they lost all three times to Boise State. Now the Broncos have left the Mountain West Conference for the new Pac-12 — and they were responsible for five of those 12 losses. With a Boise State team that UNLV has not beaten since 1976, the stage may be set for the Rebels to dominate the new (watered down) Mountain West Conference. But I am not ready to anoint them just yet. I remain a Dan Mullen skeptic. I have a healthy skepticism of football coaches returning to the sideline from cushy television gigs — and backing that prejudice blindly at the betting window is profitable. Granted, Mullen oversaw a 10-4 campaign. And he did a legitimately nice job in improving the roster in the transfer portal. As I wrote in my deep dive on this team last season: “The used-car salesman schtick has worked from the recruiting side of things. With only one starter back on each side of the ball, Mullen has hustled to bring in tons of new players as (previous head coach Barry) Odom did — and most of the transfers are coming from Power Four conference programs, with at least 16 of which were originally high-level blue-chippers. But many of these guys are on their third or even fourth team at this point in their career. Maybe Mullen can Slow Horses this thing … and the misfit toys forced to work with each other can finally meet the previously untapped potential that they had once shown?” A year later, I think the answer to that question is mixed. Sure, they reached the Mountain West Conference championship game — but got thumped by Boise State by a 38-21 score. They then lost to Ohio by a 17-10 score in the Frisco Bowl, despite being a 6-point favorite. Nine of UNLV’s ten victories last year were in games when they were installed as the favorite — and their lone upset victory was early in the season against a reeling UCLA program that would soon fire their head coach. The Rebels suffered upset losses twice. They were able to survive and win five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. Should Mullen get credit for his game management to pull out five games decided by eight points or less? Or were these eight close games the canary in the coal mine regarding the imminent decline of this program under his leadership? The defense was a significant problem as they surrendered at least 38 points in five of their games. They surrendered 419.1 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 115th in the FBS. Mullen is relying on transfers to bolster a group that includes four of their top ten tacklers from last season and six of the 19 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. The offense returns only three starters after quarterback Anthony Colandrea transferred to Nebraska after being named the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. Mullen deserves credit for getting the most out of the former Virginia quarterback with a spotty track record. He brought in Jackson Arnold in the transfer portal this season — and I will have to give Mullen his flowers if he can resuscitate this former blue-chipper’s career. Arnold is a former five-star who started as a freshman at Oklahoma. He struggled and eventually lost his job before transferring to Auburn last year. It’s as if an EMP blast has permanently fried Arnold’s internal clock, as he got sacked at least four times in four of his games — including him taking a whopping nine sacks in his revenge opportunity against the Sooners. After that, he might need to be called Broken Jackson Arnold — and he lost his starting job with the Tigers, too. He’s inconsistent — pretty good when left to his own devices but simply melts when he starts hearing the voices. In eight games last year, he posted a Quarterback Rating above 85 four times and a QBR below 40 the other four games. Former Michigan quarterback Alex Orji is still on the roster after playing three games last year before a season-ending injury. It will be interesting to see how Mullen could take advantage of his outstanding speed given his 6’3, 240-lb frame. But Orji is not an accomplished passer, to put it mildly. The door is open for UNLV to emerge as the cream of the crop of the reconstructed Mountain West Conference — but the rest of the pack may be closer to them than the results suggest. USC: Another year and another round of premature proclamations followed by excuses for head coach Lincoln Riley. After a game-winning field goal at Illinois from a game-winning field goal as time expired, any concerns about getting bullied at the line of scrimmage by the Illini were immediately back in Los Angeles when they crushed (a very mediocre) Michigan, which somehow immediately eradicated the line of scrimmage problems as permanently solved … until Notre Dame pushed them around the next week in a double-digit loss. The Trojans then beat a few other mediocre teams before a showdown at Oregon where they, once again, lost by double-digits. After losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl, what exactly was USC’s big accomplishment in their 9-4 campaign? The Michigan victory? Granted, it’s two wins better than 7-6 from two years ago. In my deep dive last year, the excuses were bad quarterback play from Miller Moss, who Riley threw under the bus late in the year by benching him for former UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. The move fit into an evolving narrative that, with Riley, it’s always someone else’s fault, whether it be Moss, the lack of an NIL commitment at USC, or outdated facilities at USC. But guess what’s in store for 2026? For the fourth-straight year, THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT! After debuting at USC with an 11-3 season, the motto for 2023 was “job’s not finished!” The Trojans went 8-5 in Caleb Williams’ final season with the program. In 2024, Riley overhauled the defense with an entire new coaching staff — led by the shiny new object in UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn defecting across town to finally fix the defense — and bringing in 111 career starts in the transfer portal. They went 7-6, so the next big deal heading into last season was Riley not taking the sugar high by investing in the transfer portal and instead recruiting blue-chip high school talent. Now Riley has brought in the number one high school class of 2026 with 32 freshman on the team — and what could ever go wrong by relying on so many 18-year-olds in the current iteration of college football, where graduate seniors in the transfer portal seem to be the quick fix for so many programs? Riley has proudly proclaimed that “the roster has improved drastically” — which should beg the question as to who the bum was who assembled the talent in those salad days of 2023 when the “JOB’S NOT FINISHED!”? No kidding. Yes, I have Lincoln Riley fatigue. Perhaps the worst thing that happened to him was he found immediate success at Oklahoma when taking over for Bob Stoops and the players he recruited and assembled. It fueled his Quarterback Whisperer mystique he would promote — and his teams became reliably mentally soft, physically overwhelmed at both lines of scrimmage, with underwhelming defenses. Here’s a thought experiment: what if, rather than all the rolling list of excuses, the problem is Lincoln Riley? He would not be the first self-proclaimed offensive genius who oversaw a perennial underachieving team. Is Riley simply the Poor Man’s Lane Kiffin? At least Kiffin has gotten a team to the college football playoffs since the expansion to a four-team playoff. By the way, when the media feeds us the narrative from NFL Offensive Genius Ben Johnson laments about how much work he has had to do to teach Caleb Williams how to play the quarterback position, the burn is targeted at Riley. Not all the offensive geniuses find their peers offensive geniuses. For Riley, the “happy lemon” spin this year starts with the loss of Lynn, who decided running the defense for Matt Campbell at Penn State was more appealing than the USC job. But Riley fixed that problem by coaxing the 66-year-old Gary Patterson out of retirement to coordinate the defense. Don’t get me wrong: I really liked Patterson back in 2014 when he was coaching at TCU, the last time he oversaw a defense that ranked ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 20 in his SP+ defensive ratings at the end of the season. Patterson's last coaching job was in 2021 … so what could go wrong? Riley’s offensive genius will have to replace seven of the top eight targets at wide receiver, including All-American Makai Lemon, who got drafted in the first round of the NFL draft by Philadelphia to replace A.J. Brown, and Ja’Kobi Lane, who got drafted in the third round of the draft. But don’t worry, Riley has 32 sweet freshmen to replace those 1901 receiving yards. Maiava is back as well for a second-year season under Riley that has not been this hype since Williams final year in 2024 (the 8-5 season). Like his head coach, he demonstrated a penchant to fold in the biggest of games when looking past the flat-track bully numbers that helped him rank fifth in the FBS with 3711 passing yards last season. All five starters return from the offensive line that got mauled by the Illini and Fighting Irish. USC backers are getting as impatient as I have become over the perpetual spin — and the schedule is not doing Riley any favors this time around. He is definitely on the hot seat with the excuses mounting up — but let me conclude with some Devil’s Advocate. The commitment to high school recruiting was smart, if even it may end up being too late. The lines are getting bigger. Nine of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year return, with seven of them being freshmen or sophomores last year. Patterson is a great defensive mind who may still have a trick or two up his sleeve after leading the way in orchestrating the now prevailing 4-2-5 defensive scheme to get an extra nickel back on the field to deal with spread offensive formations. And perhaps Maiava matures and develops from the flashes of brilliance he demonstrated at times last season. The next time Riley wins a truly big game at USC will also be the first time — but the current state of college football indicates that these turnarounds can suddenly happen. UTEP: It has been seemingly one step forward and two steps back for head coach Scotty Walden after two seasons with the Miners. In his first year, UTEP might have been the unluckiest team in the FBS. They went 3-9 with two net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession — and they ranked 105th in the FBS close game fortune. They ranked 101st in turnover luck. They also ranked 124th in lineup stability — due to injuries, they used 44 different players as a starter, with only three players on offense and three players on defense able to start all 12 of their games. Last year, the Miners endured a -12 net turnover margin and lost all three of their game decided by one scoring possession. But the play on the field was respectable. They went into the second week of November ranked second for all non-Power Four conference teams in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed before their defense declined the rest of the way. But while UTEP only scoring 14 Points-Per-Game in their first five games against FBS opponents, they generated 28 PPG in their final six games against teams from the FBS. UTEP finished the year 2-10 — and the roster was raided in the transfer portal. But Walden continues to patiently build the roster by focusing on high school recruiting and then complementing the roster in the transfer portal. One of the lessons that Walden may have learned is that taking chances on former blue-chippers like quarterback Malachi Nelson is not a good fit for his program. The offense performed better once he was benched last season. For this season, Walden turned to Incarnate Word quarterback E.J. Colson to make the step up to the FBS level. The offense lost all 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year. The defense had four starters back. The starters are inexperienced, yet the hope for the Miners is that the depth and the culture of this program under Walden continues to get better. But both sides of the ball have new coordinators — and this remains a football program that has only two winning seasons in the last 20 years. VIRGINIA: After three seasons overseeing a team that lacked an identity and basic discipline, the Cavaliers’ 11-23 record under former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott was a just result. He responded to the well-earned hot seat he found himself on by abandoning previous principles and swinging wildly in the transfer portal. Isn’t it funny when smug lines like “our 1400 snaps from freshman on defense plus our returning injured starters set us up for a significant improvement” that Elliott made before the 2024 season get quickly forgotten when your team goes 3-9? Whether the failure was in recruiting or in player development, Elliott brought in more than 30 transfers, including more than ten after his spring practice. Well, rolling the dice worked as Virginia went 11-3 (doubling their win total in Elliott’s first three seasons) and upset Missouri in the Gator Bowl by a 13-7 score. Yet, there was a vibrant minority report ongoing throughout this successful campaign, with many observers considering them outright frauds. They got a favorable initial schedule against a brand-new Coastal Carolina roster in their opening game, William & Mary, and Stanford — while losing to NC State after beating the Chanticleers. At 3-1, they upset Florida State in double overtime in a game where they got outgained in yardage by a 514-440 margin. They then upset Louisville in overtime by a field goal. At 5-1, they only beat Washington State by two points, coming from a safety, 22-20, despite being a 17-point favorite yet getting outgained by a 318-301 margin. They then beat North Carolina by one point in overtime despite being an 11-point favorite and getting outgained by 94 yards. At 7-1, they survived a trip to play California, 31-21, after a last-second pick-six to stop a potential game-winning drive and make the final score look more decisive than it really was. A few breaks going the other way and the Cavaliers could have dropped all those games. Instead, they were in a position to make the College Football Playoff if they could only take care of business against a 7-5 Duke team in the ACC Championship Game. Instead, they finally lost a game in overtime and had to settle for the Gator Bowl. Even in that game, they got a Tigers team amidst significant roster turmoil that helped them pull the upset. Now, like the stock trader who pulled off a couple nice trades after discovering cocaine, Elliott is now pot-committed to the transfer portal. He brought in 30 transfer players this offseason, headlined by senior quarterback Beau Pribula, who had last played in the Gator Bowl in December for Missouri. In theory, it could work out for Elliott. On the football field, the winning difference last year was finally establishing a dependable game. The backbone of their offense is an offensive line that leads the nation by returning 164 combined starts and two All-ACC performers. Five of the top seven tacklers return from a defense that ranks 20th in the nation by giving up only 309.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Elliott added ten starters that started at the FBS level last season. That is a solid foundation. But the reliance on the transfer portal comes at the expense of developing homegrown talent. At least 14 of the 30 players Elliott brought in are not seniors. But only 16 of the 40 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last season are back. And many of the transfers are retreads that are on their third (or more) college football team. There is a reason why the breakups keep happening. Take Pribula. On the one hand, he went 7-3 as a starter and completed 67.4% of his passes last season. On the other hand, he only had 11 touchdown passes and threw nine interceptions — and he could never win the starting job when previously at Penn State. Ask Missouri fans: they are not sad to see him go and think they upgraded when they got retread Austin Simmons to transfer from Ole Miss. There is also a double-edged sword to becoming dependent on the sugar high of the transfer portal. Sure, things are great following an 11-3 season when incoming players can talk themselves into thinking they are potentially joining a team that will make the College Football Playoff. But if and when that team drops back to just a 3-win season (as has happened twice under Elliott), then a bunch of those players bolt, the players recruited out of high school feel scorned by losing their jobs to the fancy new objects, and potential new transfers consider the place damaged goods. Elliott, coming from the “it’s always someone else’s fault” coaching tree of Dabo Swinney that also spawned Brent Venables on the college football world, has gone from preaching about the importance of building from the high school ranks, to then throwing his assistant coaches under the bus in postgame press conferences (remind me: who hired the bums in the first place?), to all but abandoning high school recruiting for the short-term high of the transfer portal. Maybe he has found the right formula for success at the University of Virginia football team. Or perhaps a blind squirrel accidentally stumbled upon a nut. Either way, history suggests that if things go wrong, Elliott will know who and what to blame. Consider me skeptical (as I continue to regret not fading Virginia in the ACC Championship Game last year). WAKE FOREST: The Demon Deacons look to be headed in the right direction under second-year head coach Jake Dickert. The former Washington State head coach inherited a team that went 4-8 in two consecutive seasons — and he led Wake Forest to a 9-4 record that culminated in a 43-29 victory against Mississippi State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The defense was legit, as they ranked 26th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 328.5 Yards-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons' defense ranked ninth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Yards Per Play Allowed. Dickert’s background is on that side of the ball as the former defensive coordinator at Washington State. Second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton served as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2020 to 2023. Defensive line coach T.J. Hollowell has a great reputation — and he has four senior starters back up front. Nine of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return on defense. Dickert was once again active in the transfer portal — he was successful last year by targeting players who got plenty of snaps at other programs. Wake Forest has a vibrant NIL program to help with these endeavors. The offense was a weak link last season as they scored less than 17 points four times — yet they won three of those games because of their stout defense. The offense will be run by former North Carolina quarterback Gio Lopez, who struggled last season operating under Bill Belichick’s debut to college football. Lopez reunites with offensive coordinator Ron Ezell, who was the OC at South Alabama, where Lopez originally was productive as a dual-threat under center. It will be difficult for the Demon Deacons to post a 4-1 record once again in games decided by one scoring possession. But because their defense should remain very good, it could be a mistake discounting this squad. WEST VIRGINIA: Expectations were pretty high last season with the return of the Mountaineers’ Prodigal Son, Rich Rodriguez. In seven seasons leading the team in the early oughts, he led West Virginia to a 57-18 record before taking the job at Michigan in 2007. That stint in Ann Arbor was a disaster. Rodriguez then served as the head coach at Arizona in another bumpy ride before resurrecting his career at Jacksonville State. In his two years as their head coach, the Gamecocks posted an 18-9 record. With only four starters back last season, Rodriguez is undertaking an almost complete reboot of this program. He brought in 52 players in the transfer portal — yet two dozen players left in the winter, and another two dozen then left after spring practice, so a lot of work was left to do in fall practice. Rodriguez was not able to pull it all together as the Mountaineers endured a 4-8 campaign last season — and they got outgained by -125 net Yards-Per-Game in Big 12 play. Injuries played a role — most notably, running back Jaheim White suffered a season-ending injury in their second game. Rodriguez’s “gun-run” offensive scheme needs speed and the right player under center to tap into its potential. The speed was not there — and he tried four different quarterbacks as his starter. He eventually resorted to giving time to the fifth quarterback and running backs on the depth chart, looking for answers and dealing with injuries. In the offseason, he completely hit the reset button with 83 new players entering the program. On the plus side, while Rodriguez is being aggressive in the transfer portal, he is still emphasizing high school recruiting (especially in Florida where he now has established ties) and took advantage of junior college transfers. He is looking everywhere for talent that fits his system and improves the overall quality of the roster. On the other hand, he brought in more than 80 new players last year — so the complete makeover is an implicit admission of that being a failure. The entire running back room from last season is gone. Their top ten reception leaders are gone. Seven of their top-line offensive linemen are gone. There are no returning starters on defense. That unit lost 17 of their top 18 tacklers and 19 of the 21 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. So, why will this complete reset be different? The best argument Rodriguez has for this season is that the coaching staff has had more time to assess and develop the talent on the roster as opposed to losing so many players after spring practice last year. And they had more time to target better player fits in the transfer portal and high school senior class with a full year with the program. Rodriguez says he prioritized adding transfers with plenty of experience — this preference was on display when he added five transfers on the offensive line who combined for 91 previous starts. He also brought back well-respected offensive line coach Rick Trickett, who had a long tenure at Florida State under head coach Jimbo Fisher before teaching Rich Rod’s specific scheme at Jacksonville State. Rodriguez was able to poach senior running back Cam Cook from Jacksonville State after he led the nation in rushing with 1659 yards last season. The offense looks to be run by Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins, Sr., as the former blue-chip sophomore has the speed and athleticism to effectively orchestrate Rodriguez’s offense. The defense is starting over — but there is talent on paper for their high-priced $1.5 million-a-year defensive coordinator Zac Alley, formerly of Oklahoma and with Rodriguez at Jacksonville State.Best of luck — Frank.
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