NFL Through 7 Weeks: Who's Been Lucky and Unlucky?

Let’s go back to last month when I wrote an article about what was “real” and “fake” through the first three weeks of the NFL season. 

I looked at the five 3-0 (straight up) teams as well as the five 0-3 SU teams at the time to make determinations about whether or not what they were doing would be sustainable moving forward. In most instances, I felt the 3-0 teams were for real while it was looking like long seasons for the 0-3 teams. Hardly going out on a limb there, but I did call for the Texans to get back on track and they’ve gone 2-2 SU since. 

While not a believer in the Vikings (now 6-0), I did make clear they could still not only make the playoffs, but win a competitive NFC North Division. Let the record show the market remains skeptical of Minnesota. This week, they are actually underdogs to a 4-2 Lions team. It will be only the fifth time in the Super Bowl era where a team that is undefeated in Week 7 or later is getting three or more points against an opponent whose win percentage is below .700. 

For this month’s article, let’s take a look at teams that I would clearly define as being “lucky” or “unlucky” at this point in the season. 

Lucky 

Cleveland (5-2 SU) - No NFL team has gone Over or Under its season win total by the eighth game since 2013. With a win this week in Pittsburgh, the Browns could go Over their season win total of 5.5. This Browns team has clearly overachieved with five one-score victories, none coming by more than four points. In fact, three of the wins have come via field goals kicked in the final 10 seconds. The Browns are also one of only two teams (Eagles) that haven’t been leading after the first quarter in any game this season. They still have a negative YTD point differential (-13) due to the blowout loss in Jacksonville back in Week 1. Very interesting that they closed +2.5 at home vs. the Steelers four weeks ago (won 27-24) and now head to Pittsburgh (a place they’ve lost 22 straight in the regular season), getting only three this Sunday. 

Denver (5-2) - The Broncos, as was also the case last year, have been benefiting from close wins themselves. To be fair, they’ve faced the most challenging schedule in the NFL up to this point and managed to go 3-1 SU vs. the NFC West. I believe in Denver far more than I do Cleveland, but that’s not an Earth-shattering assessment. Since head coach Sean Payton took back playcalling duties, the offense has actually gotten worse on third down (just 7 of 37). QB Bo Nix has been poor, but finally showed off his running ability last week in Arizona with a long TD run. There’s no denying that Payton should feel very fortunate to be 5-2 SU to start the year. Like the Browns, the Broncos’ offense has failed to score on two-thirds of its total drives for the season. But the reason to believe in Denver is a defense that is very good at applying pressure. This week’s showdown with Kansas City could go a long way in determining the AFC West winner. 

NY Giants (4-2-1) - The Giants have been schedule merchants thus far, though they did just win a game in Houston where they were 10-point underdogs. The other three wins were against the Cowboys (Week 1), the Titans and Cardinals. To be fair, it would have been impossible to predict that JJ McCarthy would be the starting QB for this team in Week 7. Because the NFC East looks so weak this year, the G-Men could actually win this division (it may only require 8-9 wins). 

Minnesota (6-0) - In addition to what I mentioned earlier, no offense has gotten to the red zone fewer times. The Vikings are also #1 in turnover differential (+7) through seven weeks. Brian Flores’ defense is awesome. 

Texans (2-5) - After an 0-4 start, things were picking up in Houston after back to back wins. But losing to the Giants, as a 10-point home favorite, may make the hole too deep to climb out of this season. But the remaining schedule, after the bye, is among the easiest in the league. This is a team that started 0-3 last year and made the playoffs. The defense has been far worse than expected. They forced only four points on 11 Giants’ drives, for example. The Texans have allowed 27+ points four times already. Still, four of the five losses have been by six points or less. That’s why they make the unlucky list. 

Bucs (2-5) - At least the 0-13 ATS streak is over. Because they play in the NFC South, you can’t count the Bucs out just yet. Especially with Baker Mayfield back from injury and a defense that has given up the third fewest yards per game in the league. Tampa is on the unlucky list because all of their losses have come in one-possession games. 

Seahawks (4-3) - A team that won the Super Bowl last February and now has a winning record typically isn’t one you’d consider unlucky. But Seattle is better than its record. They have the best defense in the NFL and could be 7-0 if not for a trio of turnover-fueled losses. The dominant win over the Chiefs Sunday night reminded us all what the Seahawks ceiling is. 

Rams (3-4) - I don’t think both the Seahawks and Rams make the playoffs this year. San Francisco has a two-game lead in the NFC West. A different division, the NFC North, seems more likely to send three teams to the playoffs. Still, the Rams are power-rated as one of the best teams in the NFL.