For the 16th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here is the AFC.BUFFALO BILLS: The Bills missed perhaps their best window of opportunity to finally reach the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era. Kansas City was down last season, and Baltimore did not even make the playoffs. Yet after barely surviving in the wildcard round in a late comeback win at Jacksonville, they found another way to lose in the postseason in their heartbreaking 33-30 loss in overtime at Denver. In hindsight, the 2025-26 NFL season was one of transition — and Buffalo’s failure to reach the AFC Championship Game is part of that story. With Allen in tears in the locker room afterwards after yet another playoff disappointment, it was time to move on from head coach Sean McDermott. I think he is a good coach and often gets unfairly criticized. But sometimes change is necessary for simply the sake of change. A married couple can remain in love — but if they experience the heartbreak of a loss of a child, sometimes the reminder of that pain is too much to bear. It’s just too many vibes now in the playoffs with McDermott on the sidelines. That Buffalo team in Denver looked like they were waiting for something bad to happen to them. I suspect that if that 13-second Kansas City Chiefs miracle comeback does not happen in January of 2022, then the Bills go on to win that Super Bowl — and everything changes for this franchise. They returned that fall wound up very tight as if they could make amends and win the Super Bowl in September. But the team was not emotionally prepared for the long slog of a new journey — which for them included a mass shooting and two deadly blizzards impacting the Buffalo community all before Damar Hamlin almost died on the field that January in a Monday Night Football game. By the time of their showdown at home against Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, this team was out of gas, physically and emotionally. Despite hosting Kansas City in the playoffs the next year, they lost by a field goal in January of 2024. McDermott changed the identity on offense to focus more on running the ball (a move I applauded), but they lost yet again by a field goal to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game in January of 2025. With Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson cleared from their path to the Super Bowl, all the Bills had to navigate past was Bo Nix and then Drake Maye. With that failure, it was time for a change as Allen turns 30 years old. But general manager Brandon Beane may have gotten too cute by promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady as their next head coach? Does he represent a symbolic break from the past culture? Beane wanted continuity on offense to remain — but does the rookie head coach have the chops to be a leader of men, which McDermott certainly was? Of course, Brady will continue to call plays on offense — and this only adds to the challenge of a rookie head coach who has never had the immense responsibility of game management. Admittedly, I don't have a great alternative out there that Beane should have hired -- I think the ideal candidate on paper was a veteran head coach on the offensive side of the ball (Jim Harbaugh would have been perfect, but they were two years too late), but the only one who fit that mold was Mike McCarthy, who seemed emotionally committed to take his dream job with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offensive coordinator is Pete Carmichael Jr., who held the clipboard for Sean Payton for years as offensive coordinator for New Orleans while Payton called the offensive plays the majority of the time. The reviews were not glowing regarding his performance running the offense by himself for Dennis Allen when the Payton regime ended with the Saints. The defense will be run by former Bills safety Jim Leonhard. While Leonhard was considered an outstanding defensive coordinator during his time in college with Wisconsin, he has never called plays at the NFL level. He has been the passing game coordinator on defense for the Broncos the last two seasons. It is a concern that he is shifting the defense to a 3-4 since most of the defensive players were drafted or acquired for a 4-2/4-2-5 look. I suspect that Leonard will still keep some 4-3/4-2-5 looks in a hybrid scheme with his preferred 3-4 — but depth at the two interior linebacker spots is now an issue. Defense has been the area holding this team back. In their last six playoff losses with Allen under center, they have surrendered 33.2 Points-Per-Game. They scored 25.5 PPG in those six playoff losses, the tops in the NFL over that span, so it is tough to blame Allen or the offense for these setbacks. The Bills need to do better in stopping the run after surrendering 136.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 28th in the NFL. They ranked second-to-last in run defense using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Injuries played a role last year as Buffalo ranked 29th in the league in adjusted games lost to injury on defense — but that does not explain six years of defensive futility in the postseason. With four starters back on their very good offensive line and wide receiver D.J. Moore acquired in a trade with Chicago to provide Allen a veteran who can play the X role, the offense should remain strong. But this is basically the same story every year — except now the Bills have a rookie defensive coordinator at the NFL level, an unproven offensive coordinator when not taking his cues from Sean Payton, and a rookie head coach who played a major role in the old regime and culture. It’s not going to be terribly surprising if Buffalo continues to fall short in the playoffs, even with Allen under center. The vibes needed to change in Buffalo, but the options available to them at the time were far from ideal.CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals missed the playoffs for the third straight season — and it was the third time in quarterback Joe Burrow’s last six seasons when an injury significantly impacted his playing time. He missed nine games last season, and Cincinnati stumbled to a 6-11 record. Turnover luck was certainly not on their side last year. Their 24 turnovers were the most for this franchise since 2014 — and they endured the second-highest turnover rate per drive in the NFL last season. They also were the victims of nine defensive touchdowns last year. They should see less harsh numbers in those categories this year. But the fact remains that the team has gone just 19-16 straight up in Burrow’s last 35 starts. The Bengals defense continues to be a significant liability. The scapegoat last offseason was defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, as he got fired and replaced by Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator Al Golden. Anarumo was well-respected in NFL circles — and he is doing just fine now running the Indianapolis Colts defense. Anarumo was the one who began deploying the two-high safety scheme to success against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half of their AFC Championship Game back in 2023 that continued to stymie Mahomes for much of the following seasons. I think the wrong person was sacked. Cincinnati’s defense continued to hold them back last season. They allowed 380.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28.9 Points-Per-Game, ranking 31st and 30th in the league, respectively. They were last in the NFL in Yards Allowed per Play, 27th in Success Rate Allowed, and 29th in Expected Points Allowed per Play. The DVOA defensive metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) ranked them the third worst defense. Rather than blaming everything on Anarumo, I thought the problem was the talent evaluation of general manager Dick Tobin. As I wrote in my deep dive last season: “My fundamental question with this team is whether “Blame Lou” is simply whitewashing the true critique to "Blame Duke." Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has drafted ten players in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 2022. Yet players like defensive linemen Kris Jenkins and Myles Murphy, along with defensive backs Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner II, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle have either underachieved or looked like outright busts entering the new season.” Having said all that, Golden did oversee improvements in the second half of the season. They did not allow more than 24 points in five of their last six games. After ranking last in Defensive DVOA in the first nine weeks of the season, Cincinnati improved to 13th in those metrics for the rest of the season — and this was the biggest improvement in Defensive DVOA in the second half of the season in the last decade. The evidence is muddy as to whether significant second half of the season improvements on defense carry over into the next season — although it may indicate that Golden found his legs regarding play-calling and player management in his rookie season as a defensive coordinator at the NFL level. Perhaps trading away defensive end Trey Hendricksen cleared the air and changed the dynamic in the locker room? Rookie linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight, Jr. showed promise. Murphy enjoyed a breakout season. Burrow spent the closing moments of the 2025-26 season pressuring ownership to get out its checkbooks while subtly reminding them that he turns 30 in December. Tobin was given the green light to get aggressive in acquiring talent. His biggest splash was to trade away their first-round pick to bring in defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence from the New York Giants. Bringing in a stud 350-lb run stuffer and pass rusher who is just a year older than Burrow to replace the presence of Hendricksen was a nice start to push all the chips in. Tobin then signed defensive end Boye Mafe from Seattle and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen from Minnesota to revamp the defensive line around the emerging Murphy at the other defensive end spot. Tobin also signed free safety Bryan Cook from Kansas City. All this support could help the development of their pair of former Michigan first- and second-round draft picks, Daxton Hill and D.J. Turner, to meet their potential. One of the arguments defending the Golden hire was that Anarumo’s schemes are too complicated for a young defense like the current makeup on the Bengals roster — and Golden would be a better fit for this group. But Cincinnati led the NFL in missed tackles, suggesting fundamentals were either not being taught or not enforced effectively. But I can see Golden working. As I wrote last year: “He had previously served as the linebackers coach for the Bengals in 2020-21 before taking the gig with the Fighting Irish, running their defense in 2022. After establishing his bona fides as a linebackers coach, he served as the head coach for Temple from 2006 to 2010 before taking over running the Miami (FL) Hurricanes from 2011 to 2015. After he lost that job, I like that he went back to the NFL and coached on the other side of the ball as the tight ends coach for Detroit for a year before moving back to linebackers the next year. That tells me he is well-respected and a teacher at heart, given his willingness to learn a new assignment. He oversaw some great defenses at Notre Dame. The hope is that his attention to detail regarding fundamentals and player development with the Irish can translate to the NFL level with a Bengals defense desperate to tackle better and force more turnovers.” With a year under his belt and a significant increase in talent at his disposal, perhaps this defense can improve on its solid work in the second half of the season. On the other side of the ball, it is interesting that Burrow described the offensive line at the end of the season as the best one he has ever played behind. Third-round draft pick Dylan Fairchild became the starting left guard, and veteran Dalton Risner settled in at right guard after he was picked up in August. Former first-round pick Amarius Mims seemed to see the light in his second season. Frankly, left tackle Orlando Brown remains an issue — but if this offensive line can even be above average and the defense is improving, then it would seem anything could be possible with Burrow along with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins leading their scoring attack. Finally, the one name not mentioned in these thoughts is head coach Zac Taylor. On the list of people to fire before Anarumo last year, his name would join Tobin. But Burrow backs him, so he stays. Fair enough. But if the Bengals do not make a deep run in the playoffs soon, he's next. CLEVELAND BROWNS: After six seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski and an 8-26 record in the last two seasons, the franchise moved on to Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who no other NFL team had interviewed for a head coaching position and seemed destined to follow John Harbaugh to the New York Giants. One would think that the obvious choice at head coach would have been defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz after he led the Browns to ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and Schwartz had previous head coaching experience as he inherited an 0-16 Detroit Lions team and led them to the playoffs. But general manager and Executive Vice President of Football Operations Andrew Berry concluded that the continuity on defense could be continued and the need was on the other side of the ball after Cleveland ranked 30th in the league by generating only 262.1 YPG. Of course, the foundational problem with the offense — and the franchise — was the decision to invest $230 million in guaranteed money to a sex offender as your franchise quarterback. Deshaun Watson is on the fifth and final year of the worst contract in sports history — and he might be the team’s starting QB this season as he returns from his twice-torn Achilles injury. Is team owner Jimmy Haslem simply trying to tank to get the opportunity to draft Arch Manning? Haslem is a Tennessee alum and big booster who is also buddies with Payton Manning, so his privileged billionaire bona fides may feel his destiny is to get a Manning as his team’s quarterback — just in time for his new stadium in 2029. He has overseen an absolute train wreck of a football team that has had just four winning seasons in the last 27 seasons. Last year’s 5-12 squad was a statistical anomaly that ranked last on offense in Yards Gained per Drive yet first on defense in that same metric. But the decision not to promote Schwartz not only led to his leaving the organization, but it was one straw too many for future first-ballot Hall of Fame Myles Garrett, who demanded and received a trade out of town. The new defensive coordinator is Mike Rutenberg, who comes from a similar middle-of-the-field coverage conceptual scheme that Schwartz operates after serving as the passing game coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons defense the past few seasons — but he has never called the defensive plays in the NFL before. The Browns brought back the promising pass rusher Jared Verse along with draft picks from the Los Angeles Rams in the Garrett deal — but it is tough not to expect that unit to take a step or two back this season. Perhaps the offense will improve after the offensive line was almost completely overhauled with only right guard Teven Jenkins likely back as a starter. Cleveland added three veteran offensive linemen via trade or free agency and then drafted three more rookie offensive linemen, including left tackle Spencer Fano in the first round of the NFL draft. While that unit probably cannot get worse than last year’s group that allowed 51 sacks and contributed to a rushing attack that gained just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry, cohesion and chemistry must be first established, even if the talent is improved. Of course, Monken is calling the plays on offense despite his only head coaching experience being when he was the head coach at Southern Mississippi for three years more than a decade ago. Rutenberg and offensive coordinator Travis Switzer are also rookies regarding their new job responsibilities. Perhaps Haslem knows exactly what he is doing — save for the part that there is no guarantee that Arch Manning will declare for the NFL draft in the offseason, especially if it is the Browns with the first pick in the 2027 NFL draft. DENVER BRONCOS: I was unsure what to make of the Broncos after my deep dive into this team last year. I was impressed with the continued improvement of this team under head coach Sean Payton — he deserved credit for leading this team back to the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl-winning 2015-16 season. His team did this despite posting a Broncos’ 1-6 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — and I indicated that “would be something I would expect to even out over time by the Regression Gods.” Well, those Regression Gods moved fast as Denver went 12-3 in games decided by one scoring possession last season — if not for the ankle injury to quarterback Bo Nix in their overtime victory against Buffalo, they may not have lost at home against New England by a 10-7 score in the AFC Championship Game with backup Jarrett Stidham under center. I’m not sure the Broncos would have been much more competitive — even with Nix — in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks. They were just fifth in the AFC with their +90 net point differential for the season. In beating the Bills at home in the AFC Divisional round, they got outgained by 100 yards but benefited from five Buffalo turnovers. They went three-and-out in their first possession in overtime. When getting the ball back after a Josh Allen interception, they were gifted two defensive pass interference penalties accounting for 47 yards to put them in field goal position for the winning kick. On the season, seven of their victories were by four points or less. They only had three decisive victories by double-digits — and two of those wins were against Cincinnati with Jake Browning at quarterback and the Los Angeles Chargers using Trey Lance under center in a meaningless game for them in the final week of the regular season. Entering the fourth season under Payton, there are a few things that we know. The Denver defense is outstanding — and it is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). The Broncos surrendered just 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 18.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking second and third in the NFL. Their 68 sacks broke a franchise record, with defensive end Zach Allen finally being named an All-Pro. He leads the NFL in hits on the quarterback the last three seasons. Nine starters are back from that unit — and they may not have reached their ceiling yet since they only forced 14 turnovers last season, one shy of being the fewest in franchise history. They should definitely get more takeaways this year. Furthermore, the offensive line may very well be the best in the NFL. Payton immediately fixed this problem when taking this job — and all five starters are back for the third straight season. With their three best backups on the offensive line also back for a third straight season, the chemistry and continuity of this group is excellent. Perhaps it is the state of the defense and the offensive line that compelled Payton to make very few changes to the roster for this season. Frankly, I don’t think I have ever seen fewer additions to a roster from year-to-year. The Broncos almost completely avoided the free agent tax that good teams endure in the offseason. Considering that deadweight Russell Wilson contract is finally off the books, the lack of activity is testament to what a great job Payton and general manager George Paton have done in their rebuild. The big splash Payton made was acquiring wide receiver Jaylen Waddle from Miami for a first- and third-round draft pick. The expectation is that his speed and ability to catch balls in the middle of the field will open up the passing game. Besides that, Denver signed only two free agents to offer depth on defense. They drafted another seven rookies in the April draft, although three of them were picks in the seventh round. There is still room for growth as several of the high-round draft picks from last season have yet to seize the starting job. It’s a great situation, on paper, yet this team will still only go as far as Nix can take them — and that remains a significant question. Just how high is the ceiling for him? There are reasons for optimism. In my deep dive last year, I concluded: “Denver scored only 14.3 PPG against these above-average defenses with a negative DVOA (the efficiency metric used by the Football Outsiders) number. Against below-average defenses with a positive DVOA, the Broncos scored 29.5 PPG. That is a major red flag suggesting that this was an offense that thrived against bad defenses and that Nix’s best moments were during positive game scripts when Payton could dial up pass plays when the defense had to respect the Denver rushing attack.” That issue was definitely addressed last season as Nix was often at his best in clutch situations. He orchestrated seven successful winning drives last year. He has led the team to 24 regular season victories in the last two seasons. On the other hand, he ranked just 26th in the league in Passer Rating and 25th in Passing Success Rate. He also ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added per dropback. He struggles to execute passing plays in play action. One big change on offense is that Payton is handing off most of the play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. In theory, it’s a risky move since Webb lacks play-calling experience in the NFL. On the other hand, Webb has been the quarterback’s coach for Payton since Year One in Denver and was highly coveted around the league — so the promotion and added responsibilities were necessary to keep him around. I love the move. I think almost every one of these “offensive” head coaches who continue to call plays is doing their team a disservice. Payton made two significant game management mistakes in the AFC Championship. Being a head coach is a full-time job — so Payton taking some things off his plate while trusting his deputies is smart. And I just don’t think it will impact anything if the “offensive genius” has to have his fingerprints on every single action of the offense. I’m confident that when it is third-and-five in a two-minute drill in the fourth quarter for a “gotta have it” play, that Payton may exert his executive authority to call the play. And I’m quite sure that Payton will remain heavily involved in designing the offensive game plan and call sheet for each game. Letting Webb handle second-and-six will not cause the planet to stop spinning on its axis. The change may help Nix. One of the reasons for the change was that Payton admitted that he was taking too long to get the play into Nix. Webb’s directive is to get the play into Nix faster. Perhaps the reason why Nix performed better in clutch situations last season was that Payton did not have the time to recite the playbook bible as if he was still communicating with Drew Brees in the final seasons of his Hall of Fame career. Webb was a journeyman backup quarterback in the league after a solid collegiate career. He may better identify with what Nix needs at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, this is a mature move — I really like it. Every year, I think the Broncos are getting better under Payton — but that does not guarantee continued improving results. Only the 2022 Minnesota Vikings and the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs had 11 victories by one-scoring possession like Denver did last year. That Vikings team went from 13-4 that season to 7-10 the next year while the Chiefs dropped from 15-2 two seasons ago to just 6-11 last year. Like last offseason, I remain unsure as to what to really make of this Broncos team. HOUSTON TEXANS: Any and all understanding of this Texans franchise starts with taking a closer look at general manager Nick Caserio. In my deep dive on this team last season, after observing that Caserio drafted two wide receivers from that passing game juggernaut that is Iowa State before drafting two USC players in a row, I decided to do some digging. I discovered that of the 41 draft picks he made in his first five seasons as Houston’s general manager, 40 of them were from Power Four or Five conferences, with the lone exception being a player from Notre Dame (who do not play in a conference as an independent). It was bated breath that I followed Caserio’s 2026 draft — and the dude did it again! Eight draft picks — and eight more Power Four conference players chosen. For those keeping score of his 49 draft picks in his six drafts, 48 came from Power Five/Four conference programs and the other came from Notre Dame. As I wrote last year at this time: “I get it: the better athletes play at Power Four/Five conference schools. But the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too! It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chances on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns.” A year later, I will add this point: game theory would at least beg Caserio to blow a sixth-round pick on the Boise State player the highest on the draft board, just to throw off your competition that your scouting consists exclusively of watching college football games broadcast on CBS or ABC. Even a monkey randomly jabbing at the keyboard would take a stab at a North Dakota State player, and that 100th monkey might even uncover Jerry Rice. Is this laziness? Arrogance? Dogmatism? Is it possible that after serving as the Personnel Director for Bill Belichick with the New England Patriots for 13 seasons, someone might have developed these negative characteristics?!? Unfortunately, I fear that this is emblematic of Caserio's regime as the general manager of this football team. The offensive line remains a disaster. Two years ago, Caserio invested $52.3 million to upgrade the offensive line, the sixth most in the NFL. That venture was almost a complete failure as the team went into last season with four new starters on the offensive line. But after bottoming out in a 28-16 loss at New England in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, Caserio reshuffled again with two more draft picks and three more free agents for a unit that will have at least three new starters. The last time the Texans had all five primary offensive linemen return for a second consecutive season was in 2018. Since quarterback C.J. Stroud was drafted, there have been 20 different starters on the offensive line. Here is the statement Caserio made after the 2025 draft when responding to criticism that he did not do enough to fortify the offensive line in last April’s draft: “The whole perception, well, you need this position, you need that position, I mean, that’s made up; we don’t approach it that way. … This whole concept of drafting for need, honest to God, I don’t even know what it means.” Uhh, wut? Frankly, this guy is dumb as dirt or full of shit — and maybe both. So, sorry, but when such an incurious approach to player evaluation in the draft is combined with abject failure after abject failure on the offensive line — while making arrogant and dogmatic comments like that — well, I begin to start losing confidence. On the subject of losing confidence, Stroud enters his fourth season in the league coming off a disastrous effort in the playoff loss to the Patriots. In throwing four interceptions in that game, he looked shell-shocked to such a point that benching him in the second half should have been on the table. I’ll step back and play Devil’s Advocate defending him. Injuries meant he was playing without both wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. The offensive line could not establish any semblance of a running game. Perhaps Stroud thought he had to put the entire offense on his shoulders — and that led to mistakes. He did do a better job in the regular season of reducing negative plays, so perhaps this was only an aberration. But he is not going to be able to hide from a postseason that featured five interceptions and another five fumbles (two turnovers). The Football Outsiders (now at FTN) Defensive-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement passing metric rated Stroud’s postseason as the worst in NFL history. Stroud has regressed from his nice rookie season. In that year three years ago, he posted a 13.2% Pass Explosion rate and a 4.8% Highlight Play rate. Last season, his Pass Explosion rate was only 9.2%, and his Highlight Play rate was 2.4%. Certainly, some of that should lie at the feet of first-year offensive coordinator Nick Caley. According to the Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency numbers, the offense was better last year. But their 327.0 total Yards-Per-Game average was just +7.3 net YPG above the final year under offensive coordinator Slowick. What was most evident was not just that Caley lacked an effective counter-punch when defenses like New England exposed them; it’s that he lacked even a Plan B when Plan A was clearly failing. Was the problem his lack of creativity? Was the problem the lack of depth on the offensive roster, despite all those Power Conference draft picks? Was the 2024 Iowa State offensive playbook unavailable for that playoff game? Something’s gotta give here — because the unit that is not giving much room is the defense. Led by All-Pros Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter at both defensive ends along with All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr, this unit is oozing with talent. With Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre joining Stingley in their base 4-2-5 look, Houston has the best trio of cornerbacks in the league. Adding former Philadelphia Eagles captain Reed Blankenship at strong safety was a nice touch (but don’t tell Caserio that Blankenship comes from Middle Tennessee). Caserio deserves his flowers for his role in helping construct this defense. He was aggressive in signing Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery in free agency. While the Iowa State alum fits the Power Conference template, he was needed because USC running back Woody Marks was not ready for full-time snaps at the NFL level after being drafted in the fourth round last season. I turn to head coach Demeco Ryans as he enters his fourth season. Too often, he smiles like he just got away with stealing a cookie from the cookie jar when a coin flip goes his way. For me, it’s a tell that he does not expect to win, as if he is the anti-Mike Tomlin. It looks like moments of wonderment of imposter syndrome, as if he somehow coaxed a better poker player to fold his or her hand. Watch him sometime. It’s as if he is surprised he got away with it (as opposed to Tomlin, whose dead stare would just grow colder as if finally catching a break only reminds him of all the bad breaks that unfairly went before him). Impostor syndrome is an interesting way to remember Stroud’s face amidst his disastrous fourth interception against the Patriots. And impostor syndrome may be the apt way to describe a general manager who lacks the confidence to assess collegiate talent, so he tries to play it safe with the Power Conferences. The Texans defense is no impostor. But perhaps the dirty little secret is that Caserio is self-aware enough to know he lucked his way into Stingley, Jr. and Anderson meeting their sky-high potential as first-round picks? The defense is their ace — and as Caserio once again discards his remaining four cards on the offensive line and tries his luck with new cards, will this time finally be different? But can the quarterback rebound from the psychic damage that this five-card draw strategy has already inflicted? INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Frankly, I’m a bit befuddled by this football team, which leads me to the default position of healthy skepticism. Their last postseason victory was in 2018. More of the same, and one would think that general manager Chris Ballard would be relieved of his duties and a new GM would replace Shane Steichen with their own choice at head coach. Ballard's drafting lately has produced some solid starters along with some flops — but not many home runs. The result is a team that has gone 25-26 in the three seasons under Steichen after last year’s 8-9 record. Benefiting from a soft early-season schedule, the Colts raced out to a 7-1 record. But as the opponents got more difficult, the injuries began piling up. Indianapolis would lose eight of their last nine games. Was that a result of inevitable regression or a by-product of mounting injuries? In 2024-25, the Colts had an 8-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession — they got outscored by -2.9 Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -26.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Last season, they had just a 3-7 record in games decided by eight points or less and outscored their opponents by +3.2 PPG. That looks like genuine progress. However, the underlying metrics suggest quarterback Daniel Jones had an unusually favorable start with his new team before reality hit midseason. In the first seven weeks of the season, Jones posted an all-time DVOA passing number when under pressure, if extended back to the full season, back to when they began measuring that statistic in 2010 (DVOA is the passing efficiency metric created by the Football Outsiders, now at FTN). But, in practice, that great efficiency may have simply been a strange mix of luck and opponents not respecting Jones in those situations. From Week 8 to the end of the season, Jones plummeted to 34th in the NFL amongst qualified passers. From the ninth week of the season until his season-ending injuries, he only completed 61.9% of his passes with just an 86.6 Passer Rating, six touchdown passes, and four interceptions. The 24/7 Sports Media Industrial Complex is so quick to either anoint or banish NFL quarterbacks — can we please apply these same standards to these “journalists?” The truth is that Daniel Jones was never as bad as his worst detractors when he was with the New York Giants — but he is probably not as good as his best moments with the Colts early last season. That leaves Indianapolis with a decent if unspectacular player on under. The offense still has Jonathan Taylor at running back and a quality offensive line that returns four of their five starters. The defense loses seven of their top 12 players in terms of snap count. The hope is that a healthy cornerback duo of Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner, who missed 14 combined starts last year, will improve a defense that ranked tied for 30th in the league by surrendering 247.9 passing YPG. After trading linebacker Zaire Franklin to Green Bay, they need rookie C.J. Allen from Georgia and free agent signee Akeem Davis-Gaither to step up. The defensive line lost Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam to free agency. Former first-round pick Laiatu Latu and free agent signing Arden Key (on his fourth team in his career) are hoped to be the answers. Yeah, I don’t know — which means assessing their early-season performances will be even more at a premium. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: After two straight winning seasons, the Jaguars plummeted to 4-13 in the 2024-25 season. There were reasons to suspect that was an unfair record given that they only forced nine turnovers and ranked 29th in the league with a -15 net turnover margin. Well, the Regression Gods may have overreacted last season as Jacksonville was second in the NFL by forcing 31 turnovers — and their +13 net turnover margin was the third-best mark in the league. Certainly, rookie defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile deserves credit for orchestrating a more opportunistic defense. But it is probably overly ambitious to not expect some regression in this area this season, even if a return to their unreasonably harsh turnover numbers from two years ago is unlikely. But the problem for the Jaguars is that their margin of error was so thin last season. Despite their 13-5 record, they only outgained their opponents by +33.8 net Yards-Per-Game, akin to a team with a 10-7 record. They benefited from +3 net close victories by one scoring possession before their 27-24 loss at home against Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. On the plus side, head coach Liam Coen did help quarterback Trevor Lawrence enjoy the best season in his five years in the league. Lawrence passed for 4007 yards with 29 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Perhaps even more importantly, he was able to get Lawrence to run the ball more for strategic first downs. He averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and scored nine touchdowns with his legs. Under Coen’s guidance, Lawrence’s fundamentals and footwork improved, as did his confidence. Jacksonville won their last eight games in the regular season while ranking eighth in the league in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (not at FTN). Lawrence ranked fifth of all NFL QBs in Offensive DVOA from Week 13 to the end of the regular season. The improvement can be attributed to Lawrence’s growing comfort in operating Coen’s kill-and-change at the line of scrimmage philosophy on offense. Acquiring wide receiver Jacobi Meyers from Las Vegas in a trade and getting Brian Thomas, Jr. back from injury helped as well, since it gave the Jags three legitimate wide receiver targets for Lawrence down the stretch. The defense ranked third in Defensive DVOA in their final eight games as well. It was a unit that led the NFL by only giving up 85.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. With excellent run stoppers, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and defensive ends Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville should remain stout against the run. The expectation is that Travis Hunter will dedicate most of his time to playing cornerback and only occasionally taking part with the offense as a fourth wideout. That is wise. Pass rush is a concern as the Jaguars only registered 32 sacks last year, ranking 27th in the league. But this is a team that did not do much in the offseason to improve the roster. Perhaps second-year general manager James Gladstone simply felt handcuffed by over $50 million in dead salary cap money that needs to be eaten this season. Second-team All-Pro Devin Lloyd, along with cornerback Greg Newsome and running back Travis Etienne Jr., were all lost in free agency last offseason — and the only significant free agent signing was running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. from Washington, whom Coen coached in his one season as the offensive coordinator at the University of Kentucky. Gladstone is a 35-year-old supposed wunderkind who can sound like what one would expect ChatGPT to regurgitate if prompted to relay what a know-it-all NFL GM would say to the press when questioned on his personnel decisions. Perhaps Gladstone is truly the smartest person in the room. But nine of his 10 draft picks in April were considered reaches (while Gladstone waxed poetic about the inherent value of four of those players being former walk-ons). By itself, I would not be too worried about defying the conventional wisdom groupthink that is the NFL Draft Media Industrial Complex. But after trading two first round picks along with second round pick and a fourth round pick to move up to snap Hunter as the number one pick in last year’s draft (while blathering something about the boundaries of football were met to be challenged, albeit for only one season, given their more conventional plans for Hunter this season), they only got him for seven games and 491 combined snaps on both sides of the ball last year — and there other rookies only started three combined games for them last season. This then leads to a final point. While Coen seems to have done a fine job last season, he has assembled a very young and inexperienced brain trust. Now 40 years old, Coen was able to maneuver the firing of previous general manager Trent Baalke (a good move) before taking the job and then signing off on the hiring of Gladstone, who was the Los Angeles Rams Director of Scouting Strategy at the time. 30-year-old offensive coordinator Grant Vdinski had not called plays before last season — and neither had the 43-year-old Campanile on defense, the elder statesman of the group. Last year was a big success for these folks — but if and when adversity hits, will this group have the wisdom and experience to respond appropriately and effectively? LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: After a 3-14 campaign, the Raiders decided it was a mistake to hire the 73-year-old Pete Carroll as their next head coach. In theory, bringing in the former Super Bowl-winning head coach was an attempt to professionalize the building (just down the road from the Hollywood Sports offices). As someone who was always a strong critic of the “Let Russ Cook” brigade, I found Carroll to be underrated — even after he devastatingly and overwhelmingly won the Russell Wilson trade to Denver. There is nothing like failed nepotism to make me sour on someone — and Carroll installing his underqualified son, Brennan, as his offensive line coach did it. In my deep dive on this team last year, the offensive line unit looked mediocre, at best. But after a season-ending injury to left tackle Kolton Miller and ongoing injuries to center Jackson Powers-Johnson, the Raiders’ offensive line quickly became outmatched in talent. The offensive line coach gifted into his position of authority was not qualified to coach up the remaining players. It got so bad that by the end of the season, quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty, and the healthy offensive linemen were holding subterfuge meetings away from the coaches just to get on the same page. Everything about the Las Vegas offense last season needs to be taken through the lens of utter dysfunction and lack of talent on their offensive line. Jeanty should be better. Tight end Brock Bowers should be better. Of course, it’s not a great look for second-year general manager Johny Spytek or the supposedly ever-present guru of the franchise, Tom Brady, that a year was wasted trying to mix Carroll’s desire to “win now” with the massive rebuild this franchise needs as it attempts to recover from the massive grift which was the Jon Gruden era on the strip in Las Vegas. Everyone seems to be on the same page now, which is to do everything within the lens of developing the first pick in the NFL draft, quarterback Fernando Mendoza. I recognize and appreciate the moxie, the football intelligence, and the accuracy with his passing. Do I see red flags from his seeming constant awareness of where his key light is before he recites the Bull Durham scripted answers to the predictable questions? We’ll see if this illuminates a real concern. The Brady and company brain trust at least appreciated the fundamental problem on the offensive line. After running the offense that helped Seattle win the Super Bowl, first-year head coach Klint Kubiak hired Rick Dennison, who is considered one of the best offensive line coaches in the business. The brain trust also gave Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum the highest free agent contract ever for a center to help solidify the position. With Miller and Powers-Johnson (moving to left guard) healthy again, the hope is that Dennison can coach up five players on the depth chart who were drafted in the first three rounds of the last three drafts. I’m skeptical that free agent signee Jalen Nailor is a legit WR1 in the league — but a passing attack that runs through Bowers first and is not afraid to deploy 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field could be interesting with Nailor on the field. The defense was underrated last season by ranking 14th in the league by holding their opponents to 317.8 total Yards-Per-Game. After the attempted trade debacle of defensive end Maxx Crosby, the pass rusher is back and complemented by a slew of free agent pickups management made immediately after that trade before Baltimore pulled out when Crosby failed his medical test. They lost four-year defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who took the same job for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Promising defensive line coach Rob Leonard was elevated to defensive coordinator, but this is the first time he is calling the plays. Moving from a 4-2-5 base formation to a 3-4 presents another challenge. This is the fourth Raiders’ head coach in the last four seasons, somehow. There are plenty of reasons as to why “this time it’s different”, although that mantra was prevalent from going from Gruden to Josh McDaniels to Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll since 2022. And, of course, Gruden was supposed to have bagged at least one Super Bowl by 2026, right? So, a healthy skepticism of what this franchise is doing under owner Mark Davis is well earned. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: On paper, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Chargers for the 2026-27 season. After having to deploy a whopping 32 different configurations on the offensive line due to the season-ending injuries to starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, both are expected to be healthy for the start of the regular season. After signing center Tyler Biadasz and right guard Cole Strange in free agency, adding two more offensive linemen for depth in free agency and drafting two rookies in the first four rounds of the NFL draft, the expectation is that a liability will finally become a strength up front for quarterback Justin Herbert, who took a career-high 54 sacks last season. Third-year head coach Jim Harbaugh also hired former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel to run the offense. While McDaniel may have failed as a head coach, he remains well-respected as an offensive mind from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. More motion and creativity in an up-tempo offense should make things easier for Herbert to get the ball in the hands of play-makers quicker. The defense must replace defensive coordinator Jesse Minter — but Harbaugh turned to Chris O’Leary, who worked under Minter as the safeties coach for the Chargers two seasons ago before running Minter’s scheme as the defensive coordinator last year at Western Michigan. Minter’s career development was similar, as he worked under defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald at Michigan before getting promoted to the defensive coordinator position (when the Wolverines won the national championship) before leaving with Harbaugh to the NFL with the Chargers. But Los Angeles has not won a playoff game in six seasons — and Herbert has thrown only two touchdown passes in his three postseason starts in his career. It seems like it was a blown opportunity in last year’s playoffs to not take care of business against New England — instead, they lost by a 16-3 score before the Patriots then got favorable matchups against Houston and then Denver, relying on a backup quarterback to reach the Super Bowl. Despite their 11-7 record, the Chargers only outscored their opponents by +1.6 net Points-Per-Game. They won six of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. While they look like a contender to win the AFC, the margins have been thin — and Herbert has underachieved in the postseason. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The long rebuild for this Dolphins franchise begins this season. I thought the writing on the wall was already apparent in my deep dive of this team last year. The die was probably cast when the organization extended quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract in the summer of 2024, despite having the option of putting the franchise tag on him to kick the can down the road for up to two years. After the 2024-25 season, when his five-year contract expired, the decision would probably have been made not only to not offer him a new deal, but they probably would not have even bought one more year by putting the franchise tag on him. The team was simply not realistic about his value given his serious history of concussions. Head coach Mike McDaniel tried to scheme his way around the problem to keep Tagovailoa safe — but that necessarily put limits on his play-calling. Furthermore, Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. It was attempting to operate an offense with one hand tied behind its back. Now McDaniel has been fired along with general manager Chris Grier after seven seasons, who was ultimately responsible for drafting Tagovailoa before Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts and then extending his contract. The new plan appears to be to transform the Miami Dolphins into the Green Bay Packers South (because of all their recent Super Bowl appearances?). Long-time Green Bay executive Jon-Eric Sullivan, who was mostly their Vice President of Player Personnel, was brought on as their next general manager. He poached the Packers’ defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as the team’s next head coach. It was just three years ago that Hafley was the head coach at Boston College. The Packers' philosophy is to build a roster by emphasizing the draft and player development. Hafley wants the identity to reflect toughness and physicality. Sullivan inherited a whopping $179.5 million in dead cap money this season — that represents 59.6% of the salary cap. Seven former players are getting paid at least $10 million in dead cap money this season — and only two players on this year’s roster represent cap hits of at least $10 million this year. Good luck trying to be competitive with only 40.4% of the salary cap available to construct a roster. This explains why Tyreek Hill was released, and Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver, but it leaves the wide receiver room thin. In keeping with the Packers’ theme, Sullivan signed Green Bay backup quarterback Malik Willis as a free agent. The former second round pick played better after escaping Tennessee for the Packers. In limited time on the field the last two seasons, he completed 78.7% of his passes for 972 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. When he was on the field during those two years, the Green Bay offense generated 6.4 Yards-Per-Play, ranking higher than San Francisco’s league-leading 6.3 YPP average last season. No one disputes his big arm. His accuracy has improved — and he brings a legitimate dual threat with his mobility. It will be up to new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick to put him into positions to succeed like Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur was able to do — but asking Willis to be a full-time starter, especially given the limitations at the skill positions, is a much different challenge than the change of pace he offered the Packers when Love got injured. Slowick needs to demonstrate he picked some things up from McDaniel after being the passing game coordinator here after getting fired as the offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans. He lost that job because of predictable play-calling and a failure to make adjustments when things were not going well. The offensive line has potential with second-team All-Pro Aaron Brewer and former second round pick Patrick Paul returning for his third season at left tackle — and Alabama’s 6’7 Kadyn Proctor was drafted in the first round to play left guard. The defense will be very young after linebacker Bradley Chubb and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick were not retained. I don’t love that Hafley is calling the plays on defense since he already has enough on his plate making the transition to NFL head coach. With $55 million of dead cap money still on the books next season, his priority should be simply overseeing enough improvement that he is still around for the 2028-29 season. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: The iron was hot to smash the Seattle Seahawks against the Patriots in the Super Bowl — and it was our NFL Game of the Year. My considerable concerns about the Patriots' regular season schedule were not assuaged during their playoff run — and I thought Drake Maye was overrated, given his MVP considerations after watching him in three playoff games. New England was gifted a second-half blizzard against backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who had not played in two seasons before the AFC Championship Game. Not only did the Patriots enjoy the easiest regular season schedule this year, according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), but their opponents represented the third-easiest slate of games in hindsight, going all the way to 1978. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo presented opponents that finished the season with a winning percentage over .500 — and the Steelers did not exactly sport the Greatest Show on Turf with their offense. Eleven of their 14 regular season victories came against quarterbacks who were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched: Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, and Tyler Huntley. Their Red Zone defense ranked 31st in the NFL. Their Run Defense DVOA ranked fifth in the league through the first nine weeks — but that unit dropped to 18th in that metric since (before the AFC Championship Game blizzard). Let’s then contextualize the Patriots’ three playoff victories. The Los Angeles Chargers were the lowest-rated team of all the AFC squads that made the postseason — and the score was still 9-3 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter before New England scored their final touchdown. It was a prehistoric rock fight before the Chargers’ injuries on the offensive line were simply too much for them to overcome. The Patriots were 0-for-5 in the Red Zone, which continued their mediocrity inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, where they ranked 15th in DVOA. New England only managed 248 total yards. Then, in their 28-16 victory against Houston, they only managed 248 total yards in a game where the Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud hit rock bottom with four interceptions. New England deserved some credit for disrupting Stroud — but those who watched the game also know their eye-test suggests he was a disaster. That leaves us with their victory against the Broncos, where they scored their only touchdown after Stidham’s amateur mistake of trying to force an incomplete pass instead of taking the sack, which resulted in a devastating turnover deep in their end. Denver head coach Sean Payton had previously passed up an easy field goal attempt to make the score 10-0. The Patriots secured a 23-yard field goal in the snow midway through the third quarter — and stopping a backup quarterback in a blizzard secured their place in the Super Bowl, despite them gaining only 206 yards. Taking the cumulative win percentage of New England’s opponents last season, there had been only two teams to win the Super Bowl with a lower number than their -4.49 mark. And then there was Maye, who was a fine second-year quarterback with an extremely bright future. But his MVP case was on the back of (a) getting to play a slew of losing teams and (b) the lack of compelling alternatives in this transition year in the league. He then added more evidence to my suspicion in New England’s first three playoff games that many of the folks who talk or write about the NFL do not bother to actually watch the games. Maye’s baseline numbers against the Chargers in the AFC Wildcard round looked solid — but his Success Rate in the passing game of 42% was the lowest since early November. He needs to send Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud birthday cards as a perpetual “thank you” since that nightmare performance offered him cover for his four fumbles and an interception in that game. That performance was telling since it was the first time all season he played against a top-eight defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). And then he encountered a Denver defense that ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA. Maye should probably thank Mother Nature, too, for the second-half blizzard giving him an excuse for his 10-of-21 performance with just 86 passing yards. Even if that was just first-half numbers rather than the full game, it would be underwhelming. Overall, in the postseason heading into the Super Bowl, Maye completed only 56% of his passes and averaged 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 70% completion percentage and 8.0 YPA mark in the regular season. Perhaps most concerning, he was sacked five times in each of his first three playoff games. Blame playing great competition. Blame the weather. But this may simply be the case of the inevitable reappearance of the Regression Gods. Maye’s 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the regular season need to be tempered by the deeper metrics that indicate he only had 27 “Big-Time Throws” and committed 17 Turnover-Worthy Plays. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell deserves some of the blame for the sacks after getting exposed in the postseason. Texans defensive end Will Anderson made him look silly against a pass rusher who can quickly convert speed to power. Of course, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl with a 29-13 victory in a final score that fails to illuminate how much of a mismatch this game was. Seattle took a 19-0 lead in the fourth quarter and was later up 29-7 before the Patriots scored a late final touchdown. Maye’s frontline numbers look much better than how he performed for most of that game. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 295 yards, but most of that production was in the fourth quarter when the Seahawks coaching staff changed tactics with an eye to the ticking clock. Maye threw an interception to Seattle defensive back Julian Love, which was as bad a deep ball as one will see by an NFL quarterback (and left color commentator Chris Collinsworth almost speechless). He later threw a pick-six to Devon Witherspoon. Maye’s QBR for the game was a devastatingly low 16.3. He will learn from the experience and should become a better quarterback next season. Given the Patriots’ first-place schedule, he will have to be. Some of his underlying metrics are very encouraging moving forward. He led the NFL by completing 71% of his passes — and these were not empty-calorie throws as he led all regular starters with an average depth of target of 9.1 air yards. His completion percentage was +9.1% above the expected completion percentage, which also was the best mark in the league — this suggests his balls were significantly more on target than the average NFL quarterback. The Patriots led the NFL in Explosive Rate in the Passing game. Their wide receiver room should be even better this season — while they released Stefon Diggs, they traded for A.J. Brown from Philadelphia and signed Green Bay’s Romeo Doubs in free agency. But the concerns about Campbell and his short arms at left tackle remain. He allowed 29 pressures in the playoffs (the most in the NFL since 2016) — and the whopping 14 pressures he surrendered in the Super Bowl were the most in a playoff game since 2018. Maye’s 21 sacks in the playoffs broke an NFL record. The running game was impacted as well, as the Patriots’ stuff rate on 22.9% of their rush attempts was the fourth highest mark in the league. New England did draft left tackle Caleb Lomu in the first round from Utah — and while the initial buzz was that he would move to right tackle, moving Campbell to guard remains an obvious option. On the other side of the ball, there is legitimate optimism that the defense will be better with a healthy Milton Williams and Christian Gonzalez. Williams missed five games at defense end late in the regular season before returning for the season finale. Gonzalez missed the first three games of the season at cornerback. Head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator found success late in the year by ramping up their blitz rates. New England’s Super Bowl run may have been earlier than expected in Vrabel’s tenure. But they ranked fourth in the NFL in weighted DVOA, which attempts to take strength of schedule into account — and they rose to second in that metric after the Super Bowl. On the other hand, the Patriots led the NFL with the fewest games lost to injury. Since 1989, 12 Super Bowl runner-ups failed to reach a .500 record the next season. If New England becomes that 13th team, injuries will probably play a role. NEW YORK JETS: Regarding the Jets’ 3-14 campaign under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, I’m just willing to read too much into it. The fundamental challenge every NFL team faces is finding a franchise quarterback — and that zeal can lead to overreaches that delay real progress. Trying to squeeze water out of the rock that was Aaron Rodgers was a mistake. And I don’t think there was a rookie quarterback worth the seventh pick in the NFL — so take the best or second-best offensive tackle of that class in tackle Armand Mambou. Given that, take a flier on seeing if there can be value extracted from former first-round pick Justin Fields at quarterback. We now know the answer is “no,” as he is not close to being a professional quarterback in the passing game. It was worth the risk — and the franchise then played for the future by trading both cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams before Week Nine after a 1-7 start for immediate talent and a boatload of draft capital. Both of those trades returned nice hauls. I like both moves — and it is hard to deliver Glenn too many demerits when the team cut bait on two former All-Pros. Given an injury to Tyrod Taylor, the team resorted to starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback for their final four games in what was a de facto NBA tank job. So, of course, it failed — because that became the plan from Week Nine after a 1-7 start. Now it is about developing their high draft choices while maybe offering a positive reclamation home for previous high-round draft choices like wide receiver Adonai Mitchell from Indianapolis or defensive tackle Mazi Smith from Dallas. They enter the 2026-27 season with an intriguing roster. Coming from the Lions' recent rebuild, it’s not surprising that Glenn wants to build from his offensive line. Left tackle Olu Fashanu joins Mambou at right tackle as two young former first-round draft picks forming the foundation of what could be a very good line. After the season-ending injury to right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker last season, Joe Trippman thrived in the move from center to that position, and former Green Bay Packers free agent Josh Myers was a great fit at center. If Los Angeles Chargers free agent Dylan Parham can solve the left guard problem, then the Jets may be on to something. New York has assembled a fascinating mix of diverse targets in the passing game. Garrett Wilson is a legit WR1 who missed 10 games last year to injury. Mitchell demonstrated his vast potential as a second-round draft pick after his collegiate career at Georgia and then Texas by catching 23 balls for 301 yards in a Jets’ uniform. At 6’2, his 4.34 speed in the 40-yard dash is more than intriguing. Second-year tight end Mason Taylor may be on the verge of a breakout season after catching 44 balls for 369 yards last year. And then the Jets used their draft capital to select Indiana slot receiver Omar Cooper, Jr. and Oregon’s freak of nature tight end Kenyon Sadiq in the first round of the NFL draft. That is a very interesting mix of skill sets. Running back Breece Hall returns as one of the best running and receiving threats out of the backfield — and after generating 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry last year, he can do wonders if not facing eight- or nine-man fronts this season, given all those passing threats that have been assembled. The organization turned to 35-year-old Geno Smith in free agency as a bridge quarterback — and I like the move. First, I did not like the young quarterbacks available to them, either in their drafting position or in free agency. Second, I pay more attention to the analytics folks than I do the ankle-biting 24/7 sports industrial complex where mocking professional quarterbacks has become a pastime. It is not a ringing endorsement of Smith to state that his accomplishments at quarterback are more than everyone of his critics' greatest accomplishments in an area of life; it’s merely a reflection of the sorry state of our media. At least with the old adage of “those who can’t do, then teach”, there is positive value in teaching. I don’t think Patrick Mahomes was going to do much behind the Las Vegas offensive line last season. Yet Smith still managed to rank 14th in accuracy rate and 12th in Adjusted Completion Percentage last season. He was also deemed responsible for just 11.5% of the Pressure Rate he endured last year, ranking 10th best in the NFL. When operating in a clean pocket last season, he completed 75.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and a 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Glenn brought in a veteran offensive coordinator and former head coach with Indianapolis and Carolina (where he quickly became the scapegoat by a meddling know-it-all billionaire owner), Frank Reich. The calming presence and expertise of Reich overseeing the wily veteran Smith with really, really nice arm talent — if that offensive line can give him time, watch out. On the other side of the ball, the results were horrific — especially after the Gardner trade. I have mixed feelings about Glenn taking over calling the defensive plays. In almost all instances, I do not like head coaches pulling double duty by calling plays on offense or defense, given the background that got them the job. On the other hand, if Glenn is correct that his “superpower” is his innate talent to call plays on defense, who am I to argue with a former All-Pro cornerback who proved himself calling defensive plays with the Detroit Lions' recent resurgence? If this is his “superpower,” then his team needs it. New York just experienced a statistical anomaly when they failed to record even one interception, forced only eight fumbles, and recovered just three of them. The Jets forced turnovers in 1.7% of their opponents' drives, the lowest mark for any NFL team since 1993. I feel very comfortable in predicting that number will go up (way up). New York is going to be much better on the field. The only question is by how much they will exceed expectations. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: After 19 years under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have a new head coach. Certainly, things had gotten stale with this franchise — their last playoff victory was in 2016. Pittsburgh native Mike McCarthy comes in to take his “dream job.” But be careful what you wish for. While the ceiling seemed too low in the back half of Tomlin’s tenure, the floor was always high. Zero losing seasons in 19 years is an incredible accomplishment. What Tomlin lacked in nurturing an effective vision on offense, the team’s identity was always clear, and the culture in the locker room could not be questioned. The Steelers had a 44-18-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession in Tomlin’s final six years leading the team. At a certain point, eking out close games becomes less about luck and more about leadership and a winning culture. It’s not a given that McCarthy will maintain this. In his final two seasons in Dallas as their head coach, the Cowboys had an 8-7 record in games decided by eight points or less. While that is a fine record, if Pittsburgh is only winning 50% of their close games rather than the outrageous 70% rate in the last six years with Tomlin, then it’s not difficult to see their record sliding below .500. McCarthy inherits a roster that got outgained by -51.3 net Yards-Per-Game. It was the fifth straight season that Pittsburgh had a negative YPG mark despite a winning record. It begs the question regarding how good the roster is. The Steelers lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs last season — and they got blasted in the playoffs in a 30-6 loss at home against the Houston Texans. It starts with the quarterback. The conventional wisdom is that McCarthy reuniting with Aaron Rodgers will be a great marriage since, of all their time together in Green Bay, where they won a Super Bowl together? Am I living in a parallel universe? Am I the only one who remembers all that speculation at the time that it was Rodgers that forced McCarthy’s firing? The rumors were that McCarthy was supposedly skipping team meetings for massages on the massage table installed in his office. Do you think the Packers are firing McCarthy if Rodgers defended him the way Joe Burrow still backs Zac Taylor? I stopped believing anything coming out of Rodgers' mouth soon after he did his own research — but even if one wants to believe this is a harmonious reunion, what are the reasonable expectations for this offense led by someone who will be turning 43 years old in December? The defenders will point to his “crafty” 65.7% completion percentage, his 24 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. May I offer a rebuttal, from my deep dive on this team last year: “I have zero confidence in the Aaron Rodgers experiment working — but I do appreciate the irony of this organization moving on from Russell Wilson’s stat-padding to turn to the OG of empty calorie stat-building in Rodgers.” That’s all it is. Rodgers has become a master at fooling those wanting to be fooled. They’re called marks. Here are some underlying numbers from last season. Rodgers had the lowest average depth of target in his career last season. He had the lowest Dropback Success Rate in his career. His negative -6.7% completion percentage versus expected completion percentage (CPOE) in passes of 10 or more air yards was the fourth worst in the NFL. In the month of November, he did not complete even one pass that gained more than 30 yards. This was a water pistol offense where Rodgers would not risk throwing the ball down the field since it risked dinging his completion percentage or interception numbers. He got somewhat bailed out by his wide receivers averaging +6.5 yards after the catch, the highest in his career. Credit goes to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who was up to the challenge of designing a horizontal basketball attack that emphasized getting the ball out quickly to their tall wide receivers and tight ends. But there is only so much an offense can achieve without a credible vertical threat. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in the league in Passing Explosiveness. Wide receiver D.K. Metcalf’s 59 receptions and 850 receiving yards were career lows. The Steelers only generated 305.6 total YPG, ranking 25th in the NFL. Now here comes McCarthy to get more out of this offense with Rodgers a year older? Whatever he comes up with, don’t expect the reincarnation of the Air Coryell offense. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh surrendered 243.9 passing YPG and 356.9 total YPG, ranking 29th and 26th in the league. This unit may simply be getting too old. Defensive end Cameron Heyward is 37 years old. Outside linebacker T.J. Watt is 32 years old. Heyward is still playing at a high level after earning second-team All-Pro honors — but when Father Time comes, it can be fast. Watt only had seven sacks last season, tied for the second-fewest in his career. The Steelers ranked fifth in the league in Red Zone defense that often bailed them out — but the margins are razor thin. Another red flag is that of the 387 points they gave up last year, 174 of them (45%) took place in the fourth quarter. The deeper I dig, the more it looks like McCarthy is providing window dressing for what is destined to be a transition season. There are ten rookies on the roster, including seven on the offense. Are the appearances of relying on the past simply distracting us from what is obvious inside their building: Tomlin’s retirement was the strongest signal that the slow rebuild has begun?TENNESSEE TITANS: We are living in an NFL era where more and more eccentric billionaire owners are meddling their way through sustained mediocrity of their football team — and while Tennessee owner and nepo baby Amy Adams Strunk may not get the headlines, there are very good arguments that perhaps she should take the cake. In my deep dive on this team last year, I delved into some of the more salacious details of her tenure since her father and longtime owner, Bud Adams, passed away. With the resignation of President of Operations Chad Brinker after April’s draft, the Titans are on their fourth executive football decision-maker (under the owner, of course) in the last five seasons. General manager Mike Borgonzi won the power battle that Strunk instigated when she hired Brinker and Borgonzi a year ago and ended the one-year so-called “collaboration” tenure. It was previous general manager Ran Carthon who hired Brian Callahan as head coach. With his firing two weeks before Halloween last year, Tennessee is on their fourth head coach in four seasons, including last season’s interim head coach Mike McCoy. In four straight seasons, the Titans have either set the proverbial reset button with a new general manager, a new head coach, or a new starting quarterback. This lack of continuity (and patience) has played a large role in Tennessee’s 19-49 record during that span — and they are just 6-28 in the last two years after repeating wretched 3-14 campaigns. In hindsight, the Callahan hire seemed doomed from the start. Not only did Callahan not call the plays in Cincinnati under Bengals head coach Zac Taylor in his five seasons as the “offensive coordinator”, but he also hired first-year offensive and defensive coordinators. As I wrote in my deep dive at the time: “It is concerning that the head coach, offensive, and defensive coordinators are all rookies at their new responsibilities.” In comes former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh, who spent last season overseeing the M*A*S*H unit that was the San Francisco 49ers defense. Apparently, those injuries were enough to excuse a mediocre season on that side of the ball. Saleh still has a good reputation as a defensive mind — and that is a good reason to hire him as a defensive coordinator. However, he struggled with game management as the head coach for the Jets — and his teams often got out of the gates slow, contradicting his reputation as a motivator. Perhaps even worse, he got swallowed up by the drama and politics in that Jets organization — and that is not a good indicator that he has the tool set to successfully wade through the dysfunction of this Tennessee organization. I tend to like bringing on head coaches with at least one prior tour of duty with those responsibilities. In Saleh’s instance, I’m not sure one year was long enough for him to digest and learn from his past mistakes with the Jets. But at least he hired veteran and well-experienced lieutenants. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars for four seasons and has served as the defensive coordinator for four different NFL teams in his career. Last year, he was an assistant head coach in San Francisco, where he worked with Kyle Shanahan along with continuing a long-time collaboration with Saleh on the defensive side of the ball. This is a fine hire. Saleh turned to former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll to run the offense. While Daboll is still considered a bright offensive mind, it should be noted that top achievements on that side of the ball almost begin and end with helping nurture the development of Josh Allen when he was offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. Allen’s list of guys he has helped get head coaching gigs continues to grow, which tends to happen for those with superstar talent. Yet there is another area of concern when it comes to the arrival of Saleh and Daboll. Saleh has leaned in heavily on getting Borgazi to bring in familiar faces. As of late July, seven of the new players had previously played for Saleh either in New York or San Francisco, and five of the new players were Giants during Daboll’s era. In all, the organization invested $91.8 million per year on former players of Saleh or Daboll — and that, by itself, would represent the sixth highest free agent class in NFL history. When the retreads are bringing in their retreads, there could be a problem. Hey, I get it. Legendary head coach Bill Parcells liked to bring in some of his guys to help infuse the culture he wanted in the locker room. But can I gently inject that the cultures and successes of Parcells’ teams in his career were of a dramatically different scale than the train wrecks that were the Jets and Giants in Saleh’s and Daboll’s tenure? That sentence is ready to be copied and pasted for my deep dive on the 2029 Tennessee Titans. All that aside, the primary challenge for this organization is to put second-year quarterback Cam Ward in a position to succeed. He was not served last season when his offensive-minded head coach was fired after six games. His wide receivers dropping 25% of his passes did not help either. On the plus side, Ward survived the ordeal and put up better numbers in the second half, especially in the last five games of the year when the Titans were surprisingly competitive against some good teams. But there are plenty of red flags. Ward ranked last in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Pass play. His 70.5% accuracy rate was the fifth worst in the league — and his Passing Success Rate numbers trailed only the quarterbacks the Cleveland Browns were using. His internal clock needs work after leading the NFL by taking 55 sacks. He fumbled 11 times, losing seven of those balls — both league highs. His progression reads after the first look need lots of work. Ward often appeared like he did not trust his wide receivers — and it is tough not to blame him. They took Ohio State’s Carnell Tate as the first wide receiver off the board in the NFL draft. But it is tough to conclude that the offensive line was improved with two journeymen free agents added (granted, only one comes from the Saleh/Daboll stable) along with fifth and sixth round draft picks. The defense needs a lot of work to complement All-Pro Jeffrey Simmons — this unit ranked 29th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (not at FTN). The hope is that the Saleh/Bradley partnership can quickly get familiar faces up to speed in their system right away — and that Daboll will steward Ward’s development on the other side of the ball. But the overriding question when assessing the depth chart of this team remains: where is the talent? Best of luck — Frank.
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