The Serie A season in Italy is 9 matches in and it already looks like a more competitive year. There is no real dominant team in Italy this season with a lot of parity at the top. Inter Milan is the defending champion of the league from last season, but they are certainly more vulnerable this season. The same 2 clubs have won the title the last 4 straight seasons, Inter Milan and Napoli, but there has not actually been a repeat champion in 7 straight seasons. Now with a quarter of the season already in the books, it is time to see who has the best chance at lifting the Serie A Title in this more competitive season. To Win Outright
Inter Milan -200: Inter Milan is the team with the best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. Inter Milan is listed as a clear favorite with their hot start to the season and them also being the defending champions, but it has been a very long time since this club has actually won B2B titles. They have been one of the more dominant teams in Italy over the last 5 years and have even made some very deep runs in Champions League, but this is a very different team from those that were so dominant over the last 5 years and even in their dominance, they could never win the title B2B years. They are on pace to lead the table right now with one of the better attacks in the league, but they have been forced to score so many goals this season due to their defense struggling. They have allowed a lot of goals in their first 9 matches for a team that is supposed to be elite in this league and they have found themselves trailing by 2 goals to lesser opponents in multiple matches already. There is not a lot of value in Inter Milan at this price with the strength of the competition around them in the league, but even if they were a plus money favorite, there are still plenty of other teams in the league this year who can challenge them if they fall off. They are still competing in Champions League this season as well and they are going to be focused on making a deep run as that is one competition that they have not been able to conquer during these dominant years. Inter very well could be the best team in the league again, but recent history in this league suggests otherwise and there is no real value in them at this price.
Roma +450: Roma is the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. Roma is another team that has had a very hot start to the season, being undefeated through 9 matches. They also have one of the better attacks in the league as well as a very good defense that does not concede many goals. Even when their defense has not played well against stronger opponents, their attack has been there to back them up which is not something that this club has been used to in the past. Their attack has been lacking quality for years as they have always been a good team in Italy over the last few seasons but never a great team. Now they have a lot of quality in their attack though and they have the potential to be one of the better teams in the league this year. Roma had a lot of promise coming into the season and they have backed that up with their performance so far. They have the quality to compete with clubs like Inter and they have a much better defense to lean on as well. Roma is also in Champions League which is a competition that they have not been in since 2018/19, so they are going to be focused on doing well, but they are also going to be highly focused on winning the league if they are still in the race late in the season as they have not won a Serie A Title since the 2000/01 season. Roma has the quality to win the league this season and they might actually be the best team in Italy this year, so there is a lot of value in them at this price.
Como +800: Como is the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. Como has had a very good start to this season and they were one of the better teams in the league last year as well. They are not a big club in Italy though and this is going to be the 1st real season where they have had to juggle multiple meaningful competitions. This is only their 3rd season back in Serie A after a 20 year drought of not being in the league and they have invested a lot over the last 3 years to sustain themselves as a Serie A team and avoid going back down. They have put themselves on the right track and once again have a very good team with a lot of quality, but now they are also playing their 1st ever season in Champions League. Champions League is always a priority over the league for the bigger clubs and all European competitions are usually a priority for the smaller clubs who get promoted and find a lot of success in those first 2 years. The 1st season back in Serie A was mainly just to stay up and they ended up in 10th place. The 2nd season once they managed to stay up was all about investing to improve the team and sustain success which they were able to do by finishing in 4th place. Now they have earned a spot in Champions League though which will take over as the main priority and that could be a distraction later in the season if they find themselves in the title race while also making a deep Champions League run. They still have not established themselves as an elite club though and they do not have the depth to dominate both competitions simultaneously with shorter rest being a factor as well. Como is a very good team in Italy this season and they will find themselves near the top of the table for most of the season, but they have bigger fish to fry this season with their 1st ever appearance in Champions League and they will struggle to get to the top of this league with the quality of the competition. There is not a lot of value in Como at this price.
AC Milan +1000: AC Milan is the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. AC Milan has been a very good team in Italy over the last few seasons and really turned things around after a decade of darkness pre-2020. They have put themselves back on the right track and are an elite team that always finds themselves somewhere in the top 5, but this team is also very inconsistent and is not a true contender to win the title. They last won the title 5 years ago in the 2021/22 season, but they are not a team that can be trusted to get to the top of the table and sustain themselves there. They have a very good attack as well as a great defense, but their attack is certainly lacking quality compared to some of the other elite teams in the league. They are playing in Europa League this season after finishing in 5th place last year and that is not a competition that they are going to be too focused on, so they will certainly have more focus on getting back to the top of the league, but they have also finished outside the top 4 the last 2 straight seasons. They are not a consistent enough team to win the league title this season, especially with the emergence of some other clubs who have been taking a backseat in the league over the past few years. AC Milan is still a very good team that is going to find themselves near the top of the league all year, but they do not have the quality to sustain long winning runs where they can actually take over the lead of the table. AC Milan is never going to be in a position this season where they are leading the table, so there is no real value in them at this price as they are not a true contender to win the league.
Lazio +1200: Lazio is the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. Lazio has been on fire to start this season and they have been playing like one of the better teams in the league this year. They have one of the better attacks in the league with a very clinical approach where they make the most of their scoring opportunities, even when they do not have many, and they also have the best defense in the league through 9 matches. They have turned things around in a big way this season and it has been a long time coming for them with their struggles in recent years. Lazio has been an elite club in the league, but the last 3 seasons have not been good for them. They have missed out on European competitions the last 2 straight seasons and they have not finished higher than 7th place the last 3 straight seasons. This team has come out extremely motivated to turn things around this season though and they have a big advantage that the other elite clubs do not. Since Lazio has struggled the last 3 seasons, they are not in any European competitions this season which means they only have Serie A to worry about. They were also kicked out of Coppa Italia in their 1st match, so this is the only competition that they are going to be playing in all season and they are going to be highly focused on winning the league since that is the only trophy they can win. They have the quality to win this league while the other elite teams are stretched thin by other competitions as the season goes on and they are currently sitting right at the top of the table with a very hot start. Lazio has the tools to win this title and there is a lot of value in them at this price with their current start to the year and the fact that this will be their only competition.
Juventus +3300: Juventus is the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Serie A Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. Juventus has not had a great start to the season and they are not the same team that they were years ago. They have not won the league title since the 2019/20 season and they did not even finish in the top 4 last season. They are not in Champions League this season which is a positive for their league title hopes as they are not going to be fully focused on winning Europa League, but they do not have the quality to compete with the top of the league this season. They still have a very good defense that does not concede many goals, but their attack has been awful to start the season and they do not have a lot of quality in their attack that is going to find the net a lot. They also have 2 losses already in the 1st quarter of the season and only 1 team currently in the top 5 actually has a loss this season with 4 of the top 5 teams in the league still being undefeated. Their defense will keep them afloat this year as they are not going to lose too many matches, but their attack is going to be a big problem which will lead to more draws and draws are not going to get Juventus to the top of the table. This is just not a quality team compared to the top of the league right now and they have a long way to go before they can even be considered a threat this season. There is no real value in Juventus at this price as they are not a true contender to win the league.
RecommendationThere are some very good teams in the league this season that are not the usual suspects and it has been a very tight race at the top in this 1st quarter of the season with no real dominant club pulling away from the rest. Inter Milan seems to be a clear favorite according to the oddsmakers, but the brand name is doing a lot for them as their defense is going to be a liability all season and the history of this league suggests that they are not likely to repeat as champions. Roma at +450 is a great option right now with their hot start to the season and they have the quality in their squad to actually be the single best team in Italy this year. Lazio at +1200 is another team with a lot of value due to their very hot start to the season and the fact that they have no other competitions, so they will be solely focused on winning the league title this year. Roma at +450 is the best option to go with for a team to win the Serie A Title this season, followed by Lazio at +1200 as a dark horse.
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