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What does "Push" Mean in Sports Betting?

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 08, 2020

What does push mean in sports betting? In this world, we all have goals and ambitions that we're reaching for.  One person might give his all to become a successful business owner, while another might strive to become the President of the United States.  This extends to the sports betting industry, as well, as it offers great opportunities to achieve financial success.  Any bettor knows that if you wager successfully for an extended period, you will see your bankroll grow substantially.  Slowly but steadily, you'll achieve the milestones you set for yourself.To go on a sizzling-hot streak in sports betting, you not only need to do thorough research, and bet into good numbers, but you also need to have some luck.  With any bet you make, there’s always a chance that it will go down to the wire, and may even result in a tie.  When a wager ends in a tie, that’s referred to as a push.  When a bet pushes, the bookmaker returns the stake to the gambler, and no money is won or lost on the wager.  Certainly, after watching an NFL game for three hours, it can be pretty frustrating to wind up in the same situation as you started.  But given that the standard wager is at -110 odds, bettors will welcome a push more than bookmakers. In this betting guide, we'll take you through push bets.  It might be weird at first, but when you understand the logistics behind a push bet, you can even use it in your favor. How does a push work?It might sound straightforward:  when a wager results in a tie, it's a push.  Now, just because a wager results in a tie doesn't mean the game, itself, also finished in a tie (although that’s possible, too).  Most often, a push occurs when the final score of a matchup has the same differential as the listed point spread, or the aggregate score equals the listed over/under line.  But in rare instances, an NFL game might result in a tie, so moneyline wagers would push in such cases, or a hockey, soccer or baseball game might push against the goal-line or run-line.One thing should be clear.  When a bet pushes, it's not a very big deal since the bookmakers don't charge an extra fee when your bet pushes.  There's no vigorish (vig) charged on pushed bets.  Let's take you through the exact logistics of a push bet by showing you an example of what happens with a push in a spread bet and an over/under wager. Push in spread bets and over/under betsWe'll use a basketball game between the New York Knicks and the Los Angeles Lakers to illustrate the possibilities of a point spread bet ending in a push. In our example, the betting lines are: New York Knicks -4 Los Angeles Lakers +4 In this example, the point spread favorite is the Knicks, while the Lakers are the underdog. To cover the spread, the Knicks need to win by at least five points.  On the other hand, the Lakers need to either win the game, straight-up, or lose by less than four points to cover the spread.  However, should the Knicks win the game by exactly four points -- say, 98-94 -- then this bet would end up as a push.  At that moment, the bookies will refund all monies placed on the wager. With an over/under bet, it works the same way. Recall the AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts in January, 2015.  That game’s over/under line at BookMaker was 52 points.  When New England won, 45-7, the total pushed, and the monies wagered on the over/under were refunded.Generally speaking, bookies would prefer that wagers do not push, as tied bets mean they don’t earn any vigorish for those wagers.  There are specific strategies employed by sportsbooks to avoid pushed bets, but we'll dive into that later. Push in parlaysWhen a bet pushes in an individual bet, it's evident that you get a refund, and nothing further happens.  However, what if a gambler made a three-team parlay bet, and one of the three wagers pushed.  For the uninitiated, a parlay bet consists of multiple wagers grouped together as one bet.  And each wager needs to succeed for the parlay to win.  Obviously, if any of the individual wagers lose, then the parlay would also lose.  But what if you have a three-team parlay, and one of the bets ends up in a push, while the other two bets win.  In this case, your parlay bet is still valid, but it's now converted into a two-team parlay, and the bet that pushed is, in effect, null and void.  When this happens, your odds also change to reflect the fact that you won only two bets instead of three.  Thus, your payout odds could be reduced from, say, 6-1 on a three-team parlay to 13-5 on a two-team parlay.How to avoid a pushA push should not be viewed as an unfavorable outcome by bettors.  At the end of the day, your stake is refunded by your bookmaker, and you can reinvest the money into other wagers.  However, when you're anticipating a win, and you've just spent a couple of hours watching a game, sometimes a push can be pretty frustrating.  On the other side of the fence, sportsbooks truly don't want bets to push as they might be in a position to make money (if their action is balanced) regardless of which side covered the spread. The question, thus, arises:  how can one avoid a push?  There are several ways to avoid a pushed bet, but the easiest way is for a sportsbook to install a point spread or over/under line on a half-point number. With a regular point spread wager, you will see the lines either offered as whole numbers or half-point numbers.  With whole numbers, there will always exist a chance that the wager will end in a tie, thus pushing.  But with half-point numbers, that possibility is erased, since the scoring in football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer games operates on a whole-number basis.  Many sportsbooks might be incentivized to post a half-point number on a game (e.g., UCLA -3.5 vs. USC) to ensure they won't have to refund anyone. Because a bookie establishes the line, a bettor has less control over whether a bet pushes.  But that doesn’t mean a bettor is out of options.  Say you absolutely don't want to push a bet.  What can you do?  One option is that you can bet on the moneyline rather than a point spread.  Let’s say you wanted to wager on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54.  But when you logged in to your account at MyBookie, you saw the Chiefs were favored by 1 point.  However, MyBookie also offered the Chiefs on the moneyline at -125 odds, so that would be a very good alternative.  Besides betting on the moneyline, another option for a bettor is that you can choose to buy a half-point.  Generally speaking, most books have standard -110 odds.  But say you’re playing at GTBets Sportsbook, and your over/under line for Super Bowl 54 is 53 points.  If you liked the under, you could buy a half-point, and move the line from 53 to 53.5 points.  Instead of laying -110 odds, you would now be laying -120 odds.  But your bet would be under 53.5 rather than under 53. How do sportsbooks handle push bets?As we mentioned before, sportsbooks prefer that bets do not push.  They are in the business to make money, not allow people to wager and then refund them afterward.  The most effective way is to utilize half-points in combination with line movement at the right moment. When you're taking a close look at the lines offered by sportsbooks, you'll notice that they frequently move.  However, as a sports bettor, the point spread movements also offer the opportunity to shop lines, and find value. What are the best sportsbooks for shopping point spreads?It goes without saying that every half-point matters in sports betting.  Getting that extra half-point is what often turns a loss into a push, and a push into a win.  Therefore, when you are considering the sportsbooks at which to open up accounts, you need to focus on ones with unique lines -- that is, the ones that publish THEIR OWN numbers, and don’t just COPY the numbers of other major sportsbooks.  And if you stop to think about why this is the case, it will make sense to you.  The most important thing to understand is that all sports bettors need at least three sportsbook accounts in order to shop the lines to get the best numbers.  One of the biggest mistakes made by gamblers is that they will only use one bookie.  If you do that, then you will always be held hostage to that bookie’s numbers.  And your win percentage will be about 2% lower than it would be if you had multiple sportsbooks.   When you commit to joining three to five online sportsbooks, it’s best to focus on the ones that offer unique point spreads because you want to have different numbers -- you want to have choices so you can always get the best number whether you like the favorite or the underdog.  It does little good, for example, if you have an account at, say, BookMaker, and your other sportsbooks just copy BookMaker’s numbers (which many sportsbooks do).  It eliminates the advantage you seek by having accounts at multiple sportsbooks.  With that in mind, the best sportsbooks to join for the purpose of getting the best odds are BetAnySports (our current #1-rated sportsbook), BetNow (#2), Bovada (#3), BetOnline (#4), BookMaker (#5), and BetUS (#10).  Not surprisingly, these sportsbooks dominate the upper tier of our Top 10 Sportsbooks for 2020.Of course, when you’re comparing sportsbooks, a lot of factors will come into play in addition to the lines.  Perhaps you value a modern website or a juicy sign-up bonus.  And when you're playing at an online sportsbook, its trustworthiness is also important.  Let’s take a look at various considerations: Licensing and certificates - You should join a sportsbook that is in possession of all the required licenses and certificates issued by the jurisdiction in which it operates. When this is taken care of, you know the bookie is legit, and you can trust them with your money.  Indeed, all the sportsbooks in our Top 10 rankings have pristine payout records over decades. Bonuses and promotions - When you sign up at many sportsbooks, you will be given an initial sign-up bonus, and then also given reload bonuses down the road.  BetNow has the best sign-up and reload bonuses, and is currently our #2-rated sportsbook, overall.  If free money is your most important consideration, then join BetNow!  Modern user interface - In today’s fast-moving world, we want to do things lightning-quick.  And this is no less desirable in the sports betting world where every second counts when you’re fighting to get the best number, or place a bet in a live game during a time out.  For many gamblers, it’s critical to have a modern website which works well for both desktops and mobile devices.  If this is important to you, then Bovada should be your top choice as its website is head-and-shoulders above the rest.  Competitive Odds -  Most sportsbooks offer standard -110 odds for football and basketball games, but some will offer reduced juice, so the odds might be -105, or -107, or -109, depending on the sportsbook.  So, if you want to bet on the Lakers/Celtics game, and each of your sportsbooks had the Lakers favored by 5 points, but one of your sportsbooks offered the odds at -105 rather than -110, then you would place your bet with that reduced juice sportsbook.  Our current #1-rated sportsbook is BetAnySports, which offers -105 reduced juice on football and basketball games.  If you’re betting on sports, BetAnySports is a “must join” sportsbook. As you can see - it is critical to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks.  Feel free to browse our sportsbook reviews to see which ones best fit your needs. How can sports handicappers help you get the best numbers?When you're in the betting industry, it's all about finding value.  It's a numbers game where every single decision you make matters. Not just the matchup you pick to wager, but also the sportsbooks with which you work, and the type of wager you place.  There's a ton to think about, which might feel overwhelming at times.  If you don’t have the time to do all the proper research, it might be smart to ask for help by a professional. One of the best benefits of using a professional sports handicapper is that you will often get the best number before the market moves the numbers.  Let’s explain why.  The sports betting world is a marketplace.  The bet shops open for business when they first publish the odds on a game.  After that, and right up until game time, the numbers are in constant flux, as gamblers across the globe place their wagers.  Most gamblers don’t have the time to stay fixated on the market -- to watch the line moves, and stay abreast of the volume of bets going on one side, or the other.  But professional handicappers are in tune with the marketplace, and the best ones will have a very good feel for which way the market is heading.  Moreover, their research will point them to situations where the odds are off, so they’ll be able to take advantage of soft lines and distribute this information to their clients.  Thus, when you subscribe to a professional handicapper’s service, you can get the benefit of this knowledge, and will often be given selections on games in advance of major line movement.  So, hiring a handicapper is generally a very good idea. After digesting all the information above, you should understand that pushing a bet is not a big deal at all.  Indeed, in many instances it’s a welcome outcome -- especially when you fought for that extra half-point by having multiple sportsbook accounts, and was able to avoid a loss because of those multiple accounts!  Good luck, and have fun in your sports betting career!

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Breeders' Cup Classic Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

The 37th Breeder’s Cup Classic will be the 12th race today at Keeneland race track in Lexington, Kentucky. This 1 1/4 mile race on a dirt track features horses that are at least three-years-old with the $6 million prize in this Grade 1 event. Twelve of the 36 previous winners of this race have been three-year olds. Only five of those winners won a Triple Crown race earlier that year. With the COVID pandemic changing the spring racing schedule, bettors will need to evaluate how those races taking place in the fall affects the three-year-olds in this field. The morning line favorite is Improbable with 5-2 odds. The four-year-old is trained by Bob Baffert, who enters this race with three-straight Grade 1 wins in a row. Improbable’s most recent start was six weeks ago, where he won by 4 1/2 length at the Awesome Again. Improbable’s Beyer rating of 108 in that race was a career-high. Improbable will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who also was his jockey in his fourth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby last year. Improbable drew the 8th position. The second-morning line favorite is Tiz the Law with 3-1 odds. The three-year-old won the Belmont Stakes and the Travers going into the Kentucky Derby, where his Triple Crown aspirations were thwarted by Authentic in a second-place finish. This event is Tiz the Law’s first race since the Derby on September 5th. Tiz the Law is trained by Barclay Tagg and will be ridden by Manny Franco. Tiz the Law will ride of the second slot.Maximum Security is the third favorite at 7-2 odds. Maximum Security is another four-year-old that is trained by Baffert. Maximum Security won the 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic in August before losing to Improbable at the Awesome Again six weeks ago. Luis Saez is the jockey. Maximum Security will race out of the final 10th spot on the outside. The Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, has morning line odds of 6-1. He followed up that effort with a second-place finish to the filly, Swiss Skydiver, at the Preakness Stakes on October 3rd. The three-year-old is the third horse in this field trained by Baffert. Authentic's jockey is John Velazquez. Authentic drew the ninth position. Tom’s d’Etat also has morning line odds of 6-1. The five-year will be racing his final race before going out to stud. Tom’s d’Etat defeated Improbable at the Oaklawn Mile after losing to him at the Whitney. In between those two races, Tom’s d’Etat won the Stephen Foster with his best career Beyer rating of 109. Al Stall, Jr. is the trainer with Joel Rosario taking the harness for his final race today. Rosario has won five of the six races he has ridden Tom’s d’Etat, who drew the fourth hole for this race. By My Standards has morning line odds of 10-1. The four-year-old has won four of the previous six races in 2020. By My Standards' other two races were second-place finishes to Tom’s d’Etat at the Stephen Foster and to Improbable at the Whitney. By My Standards won the Louisiana Derby last year before finishing eleventh at the Kentucky Derby. By My Standards is trained by Brett Calhoun and will be ridden by Gabriel Saez. By My Standards drew the third position. Tacitus has 20-1 morning line odds. The four-year-old has been favored in six of his nine races this year. Yet Tacitus only fulfilled those expectations with a win at the Suburban. Tacitus finished in second place in the Woodward. As a three-year-old, Tacitus finished in third place at the Kentucky Derby before a second-place finish at the Belmont Stakes. Tacitus is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Jose Ortiz. Tacitus drew the pole position. Higher Power is the second of three horses with morning line odds of 20-1. The five-year-old finished in third place in the Breeder’s Cup Classic last year. His peak performance was last year at the Pacific Classic, where he won the race with a Beyer figure of 107. However, Higher Power is winless in his previous six starts. Higher Power is trained by John Sadler and ridden by Flavien Prat. Higher Power drew the sixth position. The third horse with morning line odds of 20-1 is Global Campaign. The four-year-old was the front-running winner in the Woodward this year. Global Campaign is trained by Stanley Hough and ridden by Javier Castellano. Bettors should take note that his ownership overlaps with Improbable. Global Campaign drew the seventh position. The long-shot in this ten-horse field is Title Ready with morning line odds of 30-1. The five-year-old has never won a graded stakes race. Title Ready’s top Beyer figure was 95. He is trained by Dallas Stewart, with Corey Lanerie serving as his jockey. Title Ready drew the fifth position.NBC has the broadcast of the Breeder’s Cup. This final twelfth race starts at 5:18 PM ET.

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Breeders' Cup Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

[Editor's Note:  This Breeders' Cup preview was submitted by Eric "Sheets" Haber, a horse racing expert (and long-time BigAl.com client).]It is important to realize that wagering on horse racing is completely price dependent.  Horses which are great bets at 10-1 could be avoided at 2-1.  Horses which are the most likely winners can be terrible bets, and horses which only have 10% winning chances can be incredible bets.  What makes this write-up more complicated is that the odds are unknown.  We have preliminary odds to go on, but I do advise that wagers are not placed until close to post time, as odds can be volatile.  As a result, what I am going to do is give my opinions on where value might exist base on my estimates of winning chances compared to the projected odds, and also give some guidance regarding what odds might be enough to make a horse good value.  I will end each race with who I feel is the most likely winner, and who I feel is the best value.Friday, November 6-----Two-Year-Old DayThe Breeders Cup broke the races into 2 days, with day 1 being dedicated to the babies.  Two-year olds are extremely volatile, more so than older horses who have established some semi-consistent form.  With that said:Juvenile Turf SprintFavorite Golden Pal is going to be even money and is the most likely winner. The price is not good enough to play him though.  There are several live longshots as well, all of which probably have about 10% winning chances, and can be used at 15-1 or higher.  That includes Second of July and Momos.  If either of those horses does drift up to 10-1 you can try them, but overall a very uninspiring start to the card, at least from a betting perspective.Most Likely Winner: Golden PalBest Value: MomosJuvenile TurfExtremely competitive race---Sealway is the most likely winner and is currently around 10-1. Good enough for me if it stays that way.  Perhaps 9-1 would be good enough.  Underneath is a whole mess of horses who can win, but my numbers show me that the next most likely winners are Devilwala and Go Athletico, both of whom are also over 10-1.  In fact, Devilwa is 30-1 morning line. Most Likely Winner: SealwayBest Value: DevilwaJuvenile FilliesHonestly, I make 5 horses pretty much equal, with another just behind, who is extremely long odds.Vequist, Simply Ravishing, Girl Daddy, and Dayoutoftheoffice are close.  I would give Dayoutoftheoffice a tiny edge but not much.  I guess right behind them Crazy Beautiful and Princess Noor are ok, but Crazy Beautiful at 20-1 is just way too long.  It probably has 15% winning chances and is a huge overlay.  I do not like Princess Noor as the favorite. Most Likely Winner: DayoutoftheofficeBest Value: Crazy BeautifulJuv Fillies TurfAunt Pearl is a terrible favorite, with about 10% winning chances and currently 5/2.  Campanelle is the most likely winner by a little bit, and 4-1 is fair.  I will probably end up also going with one of 2 horses who are slightly less likely to win than her, but much longer odds. MissAmulet at 10-1 is about break-even value so you can try her, or if you want something longer, Spanish Loveaffair at 20-1 is just too long, and rates as good value.Most Likely Winner: CampanelleBest Value: Spanish Love AffairJuvenileI make Reinvestment Risk at 9/2 slightly better than Jackie’s Warrior and the latter rates to be about even money.  Also, there are a slew of horses with winning upside, some of whom are extremely long. Dreamer’s Disease, Next, and Rombauer all have upside, all have about 8% winning chances, and rate to be bombs.  Watch the board on this race, but for me Reinvestment Risk will be an easy key if it somehow gets up to 8-1, with sprinkles of those long shots as well.Most Likely Winner: Reinvestment RiskBest Value: Dreamer’s DiseaseSaturday, November 7, The “real” Breeder’s Cup day:Filly and Mare SprintReally not a great betting race to kick off Saturday.  Just no value at all. Gamine is probably the most likely winner but will be going off under even money and just not great.  There are a few who are a little worse, with perhaps 10% winning chances, which probably won’t be going off long enough to generate value.  Those include Come Dancing, and SpeechMost Likely Winner: GamineBest Value: NoneTurf SprintSome real strong value here, with Imprimis and Got Stormy being very vulnerable favorites. Of the shorter horses, Leinster is the best, but the real value comes deeper.  I think that Wolfman Jack and Big Runnuer are probably the most likely winners and they are both over 15-1.  I will be using both, even if they are only 12-1.  Oleksandra and maybe Frontrunthefed could be secondary plays but Wolfman Jack and Big Runner are super strong values here.Most Likely Winner: Wildman JackBest Value: Wolfman Jack/Big RununerDirt MileBoth Go Knicks and Complexity are short prices, and each are vulnerable in their own way.  Art Collector is also short and not worth its price.  If I had to pick between those top 3 chalks, I would say Complexity is slightly the best, but I doubt any of them produce good value.  I guess I would say that if you get Complexity at 4-1 or Go Knicks at 6-1 grab it.  Maybe Go Knicks has a shot to drift up there.  Live longshots might be Sharp Samurai or Owendale Honestly, I give them about an 8% chance to win, so make sure you get 15-1 or more to play them, but you might get it.Most Likely Winner: ComplexityBest Value: Sharp SamuraiFilly and Mare TurfRushing Fall is super solid and clearly the most likely winner.  I feel he will be too short to bet, though.  If somehow you can get 4-1 then grab it, but he will be much shorter.   Mean Mary looks just a tad worse, but she is not long either. Sister Charlie and Starship Jubilee are just a little bit worse than the favorite but could be good relative value---if you can 10-1 on either, grab it. Harveys Lil Girl, Prancealot, and Mucho Unusual are next tier, and if you can get 20-1 on these, you are getting good value.  All in all, though, do not expect too much value here.Most Likely Winner: Rushing FallBest Value: Probably noneSprintAs usual, the sprint is a war.  Just a lot of possible outcomes here.  Firenzie Fire is just behind CZ Rocket in my ratings and might go off 12-1.  If so, then FF is in play. Then, as it usually is the case, there are 2-3 bombs which have 7-8% winning chances who could go off 30-1.  Hog’s Creek Hustle and Echo Town are exceptionally long and will win more often than their prices indicate.  I would stay away from all the favorites and just use the horses mentioned above, with no clear key.Most Likely Winner: CZ RocketBest Value: Firenzie Fire/Echo TownMile (Turf)Factor This is the most likely winner in a competitive race.  It probably has about a 12-15% chance to win, so at 10-1 and higher I like it.  Also, Digital Age is solid at 8-1 as are Halladay and March to the Arch all at decent odds over 10-1. If all of those hold their morning lines, or drift higher, you cannot go wrong with any of them.  The favorites are weaker than all of these. Most Likely Winner: Factor ThisBest Value: March to the ArchDistaffMonomoy and Swiss Skydiver are the most likely winners but should be extremely short--   Cee Cee is only slightly worse and is somehow 12-1 currently.  If she is anywhere near this, she should be the best value/key. Ollie Candy and Dunbar Road are the next tier and 12-1 would be fair on those.   I will be keying Ce Ce though if these odds hold.Most Likely Winner: MonomoyBest Value: Ce CeTurfWow, usually there are 1-2 standouts in this race which I either commit to or try to beat.  I do not know what it is about this year, but my analysis has this race as almost every horse having exactly equal winning chances.  However, there are a few horses which are a tiny bit better, and one of them is a huge bomb.   If I had to narrow this field down, I would say that Mogul, United, Magical, Channel Maker and Donjah are slightly better than the rest. Well, Donja is 25-1 so I will probably be gambling on him.  At least I know I am getting good value relative to his winning chances, which is all I can ask.  Most Likely Winner: United Best Value: DonjahClassicI wish I had something more earth shattering for you in the Classic, but, the most likely winners, to me, are Tiz The Law and Authentic, and neither will be a great price, and no one else rates to be great value. If you can get either of these horses at 5-1 then go for it, but it probably is not happening.  The one longer shot which has a shot to be good value is Tom’s Detat.  I give him about 15% winning chances so I guess if you can get 9-1 or so, he might be worth a stab, but the Classic is just not shaping up as a great betting race.  I do not like any of the other favorites either.  Most Likely Winner; Tiz The LawBest Value: None.Good Luck to All!

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers/Saints Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

First place in the NFC South will be on the line for Sunday Night Football in a showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.These two teams met in the opening week of the season. New Orleans won by a 34-23 score as a 4-point favorite (with the total at 48) in what was the first game for Tom Brady in a Tampa Bay uniform. The 43-year old had some difficulties playing in a new offense that day as he completed 23 of 36 passes with two interceptions. Brady has only thrown two interceptions since that game in leading the Buccaneers to a 6-2 record. His 63.9% completion percentage against the Saints defense was the third lowest in his eight games this season. Brady has found his groove with his new team as he has thrown 17 touchdowns to just one interception in his last five games. Tampa Bay has won the turnover battle in six of its seven games since that opening loss to New Orleans. They come off a 25-23 victory at New York against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Brady completed 28 of 40 passes for 279 yards in that game with two touchdown passes. He has completed over 70% of his passes in his last two games while passing for at least two touchdown passes in three straight contests. The Buccaneers return home after playing their previous two games on the road. Only left guard Ali Marpet will be unavailable to Tampa Bay in this game from their active roster as he recovers from a concussion. Defensive end William Gholston has been on their COVID list, but his recent negative tests could put him in a position to play. Wide receiver Chris Godwin is questionable with his finger injury, but head coach Bruce Arians have declared he will play in some capacity. Recently-signed wide receiver Antonio Brown will also be eligible to make his debut with the team.New Orleans raised their record to a 5-2 mark last week with their overtime 26-23 win in Chicago. That game left the Saints dealing with some nagging injuries with quarterback Drew Brees slowed with a shoulder and running back Alvin Kamara suffering from a foot issue. Both of those players are now off the injured list as of Friday, yet head coach Sean Payton was coy about their availability for this game. Wide receiver Michael Thomas remains questionable with an ankle injury, but he may make his return to the field for this game, given the high stakes. The Saints only rushed for 82 yards in their win against the Bucs. That was their lowest rushing output of the season. New Orleans is averaging 119.3 rushing yards-per-game this season while topping the 90 yards threshold six times. Tamara has 431 yards on 87 carries, with Latavius Murray adding another 282 yards on 71 carries. Yet the Buccaneers lead the league by allowing only 70.4 rushing yards-per-game. Tampa Bay has held three of its opponents under 50 rushing yards this year. This high-profile matchup features the two all-time NFL leaders in passing touchdowns with Brady’s 561 career touchdown passes just ahead of the 560 TD Brees has thrown in his career. BetOnline lists the Buccaneers as a 4.5-point favorite, with the total set at 50.5. NBC has the broadcast with the kickoff at 8:20 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

The Saturday sports card features a busy slate of college football games along with the English Premier League. The college football schedule has 37 games between FBS opponents. COVID issues canceled ten games: Air Force/Army; Tulsa/Navy; Purdue/Wisconsin; Charlotte/Middle Tennessee; UTSA/Rice; Arizona/Utah; FIU/UTEP; Louisiana Tech/North Texas; Louisville/Virginia; and Washington/California/.Sixteen games kick off the college football slate in the noon to 3 PM ET window. Twelves games take place at noon. On Fox, Arizona State plays at USC in the debut of Pac-12 action with the Trojans a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 55.5 (all lines from BookMaker). The ABC game has Texas hosting West Virginia with the Longhorns' a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55. Michigan State travels to Iowa on ESPN with the Hawkeyes' a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 47.5. Indiana hosts Michigan on FS1 with the Wolverines' a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54.5. North Carolina visits Duke on ESPN2 with the Tar Heels an 11.5-point road favorite and the total set at 62. On ESPNU, Arkansas State travels to Louisiana-Lafayette with the Ragin’ Cajuns' a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 68.5. Another eleven games take place between 3:30 PM ET to 6 PM ET. Eight games are at 3:30 PM ET. CBS has the Florida/Georgia game in Jacksonville, Florida, where the Bulldogs are a 3-point favorite with a total of 54. Cincinnati hosts Houston on ABC with the Bearcats' a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Kansas travels to Oklahoma on ESPN with the Sooners a 38-point favorite with a total of 47.5. On the CBS Sports Network, UNLV hosts Fresno State with the Bulldogs an 11-point road favorite and the over/under at 57. Texas Tech travels to TCU with the Horned Frogs' a 10-point favorite with the total set at 60. At 4 PM ET, Kansas State hosts Oklahoma State with the Cowboys a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Three games kick off at 7 PM ET. ESPN has South Carolina hosting Texas A&M with the Aggies' a 10-point road favorite with the total set at 58.5. UCLA travels to Colorado on ESPN2, where they are 5-point road favorites with an over/under of 56.5. Iowa State hosts Baylor as a 14-point favorite with a total of 47. Four games start at 7:30 PM ET. NBC has the Clemson/Notre Dame showdown with the Tigers a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Oregon hosts Stanford on ABC with the Ducks an 8.5-point favorite with the total set at 51. At 8 PM ET, South Alabama travels to Coastal Carolina, where the Chanticleers are a 17.5-point favorite, and the total is 55. The Saturday college football card concludes with Oregon State hosting Washington State on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET. The Beavers are 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 63.5.The English Premier League has four games scheduled. At 7:30 AM ET, Manchester United plays at Everton. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts the game. Crystal Palace hosts Leeds United at 10 AM ET in the second game on the NBC Sports Network. NBC broadcasts Chelsea hosting Sheffield United at 12:30 PM ET. At 3 PM ET on the NBC Peacock app, Fulham plays at West Ham.

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What does "Square" Mean in Sports Betting?

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

Everywhere you look in life, there are different people.  Some of us go through life without a set goal, without any plans, and just go wherever life takes them.  Others know what they want to achieve, and think about every single detail to achieve this goal.  It's the same in the sports betting industry.  Some bettors do the proper research and try to grind out a profit over time, while others play parlays in hopes of a massive payout.  The difference in philosophy separates the ones who want to pursue a career in sports betting from those who primarily gamble for entertainment.To become a sports bettor, you need a plan, and you need to form your betting strategy.  You need to determine if you are going to bet all sports, or just football.  And if you bet on football, will you bet just the NFL or just College Football, or both.  You need to choose how much to risk for your standard bet, and how big your bankroll will be.  Sports betting is much more than just selecting which teams to bet on.  It's also a serious business which requires extreme discipline.  In this guide, we'll show you how.The reason we're writing this article is to discuss what the term ‘square’ means in sports betting.  Square has a negative connotation, and refers to a bettor who is unconcerned about the numbers or odds.  These gamblers may, or may not recognize the value of numbers, but they don’t have the discipline to seek out the best numbers.  Instead, they are casual gamblers, and will often bet into bad numbers, especially if it’s more convenient to do so.  We'll show you what it means to be a square bettor and the influence they have on the sports betting industry. We'll also shed some light on the other side of the coin --  the disciplined gamblers who do care about numbers -- the sharps. What are square sports betting strategies? Let's dive into the typical square bettor's strategy.  Actually, it's not a strategy, per se; it more accurately can be described as throwing a dart, and hoping for the best.  There's not a lot of discipline in a square’s betting patterns.  A square bettor may be motivated to bet on a game which is on television, regardless of whether he has done research to determine one side has value.  Or a square may bet on a favorite at -7.5, even if other sportsbooks offered the odds at -7.  And if a square wins $100 on his early afternoon bet, he may risk double the amount on his next bet that evening because he wants to press his luck -- even if he doesn’t like that second bet as much as the first!  Interestingly, most sports bettors fall into the category of square.  And sportsbooks are more than happy to take advantage of the lack of discipline on the part of these bettors.  We'll dive into that later.  For now, let's take a look at some of the behaviors of squares. Seduced by the parlay wager Square bettors often take a tremendous amount of risk.  A prime example is the parlay wager.  With parlays, the payout is much greater than with a single bet.  The more bets you add to your betting line, the bigger your payout.  So, a casual bettor will think: 'You know what, let's take this risk….Who knows I might walk away with a couple of thousand dollars!' With this attitude, you might as well just buy a lottery ticket.  Any sharp bettor knows that parlays are disastrous bets with horrible odds.  They understand that having the ability to win $1,000 by just wagering $100 on a four-team parlay is very interesting and appealing.  But they also understand the true odds are 15-1, so sharp bettors have the discipline to stay away from parlays. Super Bowl squares Often, square bettors love wagering on the major sporting events like the Super Bowl, or March Madness.  That's why we'll call this group the Super Bowl squares.  They aren’t day-in and day-out bettors.  Instead, they’ll come out of the woodwork for the biggest events that are on television.  So, the betting markets will get a massive influx of new bettors for the NCAA football bowl season, the NFL Playoffs, March Madness, the World Cup, etc.  Tons of people will sign up with new accounts at online sportsbooks; the city of Las Vegas will get packed with tourists; and even non-sports fans will enter office pools.  But these squares don’t have the requisite knowledge (which often comes from experience) to have an expert opinion on the appropriate odds.  Still, their money counts the same as regular bettors.  And sharps can often take advantage at these times if the influx of square money results in softer numbers. Blinded by fandom Let's be honest here, we all have a favorite team, and we all want that team to win.  But in reality, sometimes your favorite team goes up against an opponent which is playing at a higher level.  Or maybe your favorite team is just in a horrible scheduling situation?  For example, it might be playing its third straight football game on the road.  Still, you're a massive fan, and convinced of their capabilities because your fanaticism blinds you.  Square bettors will blindly follow their team and wager their hard-earned money on them, regardless of the situation.  But sharps will know better and are never blinded by fandom.  Sports betting isn't about your favorite team winning; it's about identifying which team has the most value relative to the odds.  Square bettors bet on uniforms; sharp money bets on numbers. How do sportsbooks handle squares? As we said before, sportsbooks know that square bettors make up a considerable chunk of the sports betting industry.  They love this kind of bettor since they are the ones that bring in the most cash.  The professional bettors usually cost the sportsbooks money, but the square bettors bring in a fresh load of cash every time.  The squares have a betting pattern that doesn't create any fear or discomfort for the bookmakers.  They're easier to predict (since they generally bet on favorites), and the bookies know that their lack of discipline will generally lead them to blow their bankroll.The sportsbooks don't pay a lot of attention to square bettors, to be honest.  They know that, whatever they do, there's not a lot of thinking that goes into their betting strategy.  They know they can make a lot of money by just letting the square bettors do their thing.  Indeed, some sportsbooks -- like Bovada -- will cater to squares or the recreational gambler market.  Such sportsbooks can squeeze out even more money by adjusting their odds to take advantage of a square’s proclivities. Should you be a square or sharp bettor? Of course, our general tone of voice in this article is pretty negative toward square bettors, but it could be that you identify yourself as a square.  It might be that you treat sports betting as a hobby, and the most important thing to you is that it’s convenient.  So, you don’t feel the need to follow the market and fight for the best number.  Or maybe you only want to bet on your local college football team?  If so, there's no need to come up with an organized betting strategy.However, if you're in this to become a professional bettor and want to make sports betting your full-time profession, you should take matters into your own hands.  If you're not comfortable with losing your money through unnecessary wagers and don't want to keep betting as a side-hustle, then it's time to become a sharp bettor.  You might wonder, how do I make that transition?  Here, we'll show you the steps to take. How to make the transition from square bettor to sharp bettor Alright, you're in this for real.  You're not a square bettor who is comfortable with losing, and you want to win and make some real money.  The first thing to do in your transition to becoming a sharp bettor is to analyze your current betting behavior.  You’ll want to know what you’re doing well, and where you have shortcomings, so that you can improve on your performance.  For example, do you have at least three sportsbooks, and routinely shop for the best numbers?  Do you play parlays?  Do you follow the betting market to stay abreast of the changing numbers?  Do your bets do better in a particular sport?  After your initial review, you can move on to the next stage, which involves improving the tools at your disposal.  Let’s shed some light on certain of these tools:  sportsbooks, statistics, and handicappers.Picking the right sportsbookWhen you're serious about becoming a professional, you will need to have accounts at many online sportsbooks.  And, ideally, you should bet with sportsbooks that cater to sharp players.  Here's a checklist: Does your sportsbook welcome sharp players, or does it limit their action? Does your sportsbook have small or large betting limits? Does your sportsbook have unique odds, or does it follow the odds published by other sportsbooks? Does your sportsbook have reduced juice? In essence, the sharp books will generally have large betting limits, unique odds, and may offer reduced juice.  In contrast, books that cater to squares will have smaller betting limits, and will not have unique odds.  Instead, they’ll follow the odds of other major sportsbooks.Some of the best books for sharp players include BetAnySports, which offers reduced juice (-105 odds rather than -110 odds), BookMaker, which has the highest betting limits, BetNow, which offers unique odds, and has the best sign-up bonus, and BetOnline, which is generally the first book to publish its odds.Statistics are your friendA good sports bettor is nowhere without a good portion of statistics.  Professional sports bettors base their decisions on a massive chunk of data that sometimes goes back decades.  Without this data, you're just making a wild guess, and you're better off flipping a coin.  You might wonder, how do you use statistics to make a judgment?  Well, let's look at some examples when analyzing a matchup: How is a team’s current form? What are the individual player stats against the current opponent? How do the two teams perform home and away? What's the history of both teams against each other? Do either of the teams have a scheduling advantage? Are there any current injuries? Are there any intangibles, like revenge, that might favor a team? There's always more to consider since it also depends on the type of sport you are handicapping.  In horse racing, intangibles like revenge or a letdown situation won’t come into play.  But with the NFL or the NBA, such factors can be important.  Always remember to do proper research.HandicappersMany sports gamblers choose to work with professional bettors.  It's one way to reap the rewards of gambling without having to invest years to learn how to handicap, not to mention the ongoing time commitment after you’ve developed your methodology.  When you hire a professional, you can count on the expertise of those who have invested the time to become experts in the field.  These professional bettors are known as handicappers.To identify a proper handicapper, it’s wise to look up their achievements, and to review their game analysis.  When they provide the reasons for their selections, do they make sense?  If all these add up, you're in business with an expert who might just lead you to victory.  At the end of the day, gambling is all about finding value.  It’s immaterial if it’s yourself, or somebody else who actually finds it.You now understand what the term ‘square’ means, and you probably have also made the determination of whether you're a square or a sharp bettor.  Plus, you're probably at the point where you know if you want to become a sharp bettor, or stay in the square betting category.  We're always looking to help bettors take things to the next level, and try our hardest to provide the best learning material to do so.  Good luck with your sports betting!

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Ness Notes: Friday, Nov 6

by Larry Ness

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." NFL Week 9 (Thursday Night): Aaron Rodgers passed for 305 yards and four touchdowns as the Packers rolled to a 34-17 victory over the 49ers on Thursday night at Levi's Stadium. He completed 25 of 31 passes before exiting. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in all six of its victories. Nick Mullens completed 22 of 35 for 291 yards for one TD but also threw an interception and lost a fumble, starting in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle). San Francisco has been decimated by injuries and then the COVID-19 pandemic made matters worse. Without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, RB Raheem Mostert, WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne, left tackle Trent Williams, cornerback Richard Sherman, defensive ends Nick Bosa and Dee Ford and more, the team the Niners put on the field Thursday night was unrecognizable from the one that ran roughshod over the Packers in two meetings last season. A whopping $80.8 million worth of cap space was on injured reserve.Let's check on the Y-T-D numbers heading into Sunday. Home teams remain barely over .500 at 60-59-1 (.504) on the season while going just 53-65-2 ATS (.449). Home dogs check in at 11-30 SU but a more respectable 20-19-2 ATS. Scoring remains high but with over/under numbers being adjusted higher, there have been 61 overs, 56 unders and three pushes.Sunday NFL: The 7-0 Steelers (6-1 ATS) are the NFL's lone unbeaten team and will travel to Dallas to take on the 2-6 Cowboys, who are the NFL's only winless ATS team (0-8). Pittsburgh's Big Ben will go up against a Dallas defense that is allowing the most points of any team in 2020, 33.3 PPG. Meanwhile, the Steelers own one of the NFL's best defenses, allowing 20.3 PPG on 310.7 YPG. Dallas' franchise QB Dak Prescott is out with a season-ending broken ankle. Backup Andy Dalton has been transferred from concussion protocol to the reserve/COVID-19 list and head coach Mike McCarthy has lost confidence in Ben DiNucci, a Pittsburgh native who made his first start last week (he completed 21 of 40 passes for 180 yards with two lost fumbles in last week's 23-9 loss to Philadelphia). It will come to a decision between Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush. Pittsburgh is favored by 14 points and the over/under is 42. The league's lone winless team is the NY Jets (0-8 & 1-7 ATS) and they will host the 2-5 Patriots (who have lost FOUR in a row) on Monday night. I'll cover that contest in Monday's Notes.SNF (8:20 ET on NBC) has the week's marquee matchup, as the 5-2 Saints are in Tampa to take on the 6-2 Bucs. The winner will sit atop the NFC South and the game is a rematch of the Saints' 34-23 Week 1 win in New Orleans. Both Brees and Brady had two TD passes last week, leaving Brady with 561 for his career, ONE more than Brees. Tampa Bay is favored by  4 1/2-points and the over/under is 50 1/2. While the Saints and Bucs square off for the lead in the NFC South, two first-place teams square off in Buffalo, where the NFC West-leading Seahawks (6-1) will meet the AFC East-leading Bills (6-2). MVP candidate Russell Wilson threw four more TD passes last week and enters having completed 71.5% with 26 TDs and six INTs (120.7 QB rating). He's also run for 260 yards on 7.4 YPC. Two of those TDs went to DK Metcalf, who set career highs with 12 receptions for 161 yards. Seattle's defense has been much-maligned in 2020 and for good reason. Seattle is allowing a league-high 406.9 PPG. However, the defense just might be trending in the right direction, as it allowed just 117 total yards and one score through three quarters of last weekend's 37-27 victory against visiting San Francisco. The 49ers' backups put together some drives after the Seahawks had built a 23-point lead. The Bills snapped a SEVEN-game losing streak to New England last Sunday with a 24-21 win. New England has won the AFC East in each of the last 11 seasons but the Bills seem poised to win the division for the first time since 1995 in 2020. Seattle is favored  by three points and the over/under is  55. There are three other games of note, the 5-2 Ravens at the 5-2 Colts, the 5-3 Bears at the 5-2 Titans and the 4-3 Dolphins at the 5-2 Cardinals. The Ravens, who were 14-2 in the regular season in 2019, have lost BOTH of their marquee games in 2020, 34-20 to KC and 28-24 to Pittsburgh (BOTH at home!). Meanwhile, after opening with a 27-20 loss at Jacksonville (the Jags' LONE win this season), the Colts have won FIVE of six. The key has not been the addition of QB Philip Rivers but rather the play of the Colts' D, which allows just 293.4 YPG (2nd-best in the NFL) and only 19.4 PPG.  Baltimore is favored by 1 1/2-points and the over/under is 48. The Bears trail the 6-2 Packers in the NFC North, while the Titans are dead-locked with the 5-2 Colts atop the AFC South. The Titans are favored by 6 1/2-points and the over/under is 47. The Dolphins and Cards are both 2020 surprises and the game features Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa and Arizona QB Kyler Murray, a former Heisman-winner who is having an excellent sophomore season. Tua won his first career NFL start over the Rams last Sunday but he completed a modest 12 of 22 for only 93 yards with one TD (zero INTs). His longest completion was for 15 yards and his TD pass was a three-yarder. As for Murray, who is off a bye week, he's completing 66.8% for 1,847 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 437 yards on 6.7 YPC and seven TDs. Arizona is favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 50 1/2.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: Clemson/Notre Dame Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

Saturday night features a colossal battle on NBC between the number one ranked Clemson Tigers traveling to South Bend to face a Notre Dame ranked fourth in the nation by the Associated Press. These are two of the three remaining undefeated schools representing Power Five conferences (along with Alabama) who started their seasons in September.Clemson is without junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence again this week as he continues in the COVID quarantine protocol. The Tigers remained undefeated last week with their 34-28 win over Boston College. Highly-touted freshman D.J. Uiagelelei played well as Lawrence’s understudy. He completed 30 of 41 passes for 342 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Uiagelelei also added another 25 yards on the ground with a touchdown. The Tigers were 26-point point favorites against the Eagles but started slowly after Boston College scored two touchdowns in the first quarter. When a Clemson fumble on the Eagles’ three-yard line was picked and returned for a 97-yard touchdown, the Tigers found themselves trailing by a 21-7 score early in the second quarter. The Clemson defense tightened up by allowing only 273 yards for the game, which provided ample room for Uigelelei to lead the team to outscore Boston College by a 28-7 score the rest of the way for the victory. Clemson will be without defensive lineman Xavier Thomas for the first half of this game as getting suspended for a targeting penalty against the Eagles. The Tigers are dealing with a host of injuries to their front seven with starting defensive linemen Tyler Davis and Justin Foster and starting linebackers James Skalski and Mike Jones all declared out for this game. Notre Dame upped their record to a 6-0 mark with their 31-13 win at Georgia Tech last week. The Fighting Irish return home where they have won 22 straight games in a row at Notre Dame Stadium. Quarterback Ian Book completed 18 of 26 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown while adding another 46 rushing yards in the victory.Irish running back Karen Williams leads the team with 600 rushing yards bolstered by the three games where he rushed for more than 100 yards. He has reached the end zone seven times. The Notre Dame ground game will face their stiffest test of the season against a Clemson defense that is allowing only 99.9 rushing yards-per-game. The Fighting Irish run defense has been even stingier this season as they rank ninth in the nation by holding their opponents to only 93.7 rushing yards-per-game. Yet it is fair to suggest that they have not faced a running back as dynamic as the Tigers’ Travis Ettienne. The senior is eleventh in the nation with 606 rushing yards this year, which has increased his career tally with the Tigers to 4644 yards on the ground.These two teams last played in the national semifinals of the 2018-19 college football playoffs, with Clemson earning a 30-3 victory to advantage to the title game where they upset Alabama to win the national championship in Lawrence’s freshman year.This showdown could be the opening act for a potential rematch between these two teams in the ACC championship game with Notre Dame competing as a temporary conference member this season. The ACC has abandoned their division format this year, with the top two teams after conference play earning the right to play in the conference championship game.BetAnySports lists Clemson as a 5-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The NBC broadcast starts at 7:30 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

The Friday sports card features three games in college football and two-afternoon matches in the English Premier League. The Friday night game on ESPN offers a battle of two teams from the ACC that return to action after a bye week. Miami (FL) has won their last two games to raise their record to a 5-1 mark after losing at Clemson on October 10th. They last played on October 24th when they defeated Virginia by a 19-14 score as a 13.5-point home favorite. The Hurricanes won the yardage battle by a 444-366 edge but still had to hang on for the victory. Miami enters this game ranked 11th in the nation in the Associated Press poll.North Carolina State last played on October 24th when they lost at North Carolina by a 48-21 score. The Wolfpack were outgained by -186 net yards as they surrendered 578 yards to the Tar Heels. A -4 net turnover margin made matters even worse. That game was the first start for junior Bailey Hockman, who became the starting quarterback after sophomore Devin Leary broke his fibula the previous week against Duke. After playing four of their five games on the road, they return home to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh for the first of a three-game homestand. This contest is the Wolfpack’s fourth game against a ranked opponent this season.These two teams last played each other in 2016. Miami is a 10.5-point favorite at BetAnySports, with the total at 58. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM ET. At 9 PM ET, a surprising San Jose State team travels to San Diego State to play the Aztecs. The Spartans opened their season with a 17-6 victory at home against Air Force. They followed that up last week with a 38-21 win at home against New Mexico as a 13.5-point favorite. San Diego State has also begun their season 2-0 with a 34-6 win at home against UNLV before crushing Utah State on the road last Saturday with their 38-7 victory as an 8.5-point favorite. The Aztecs are a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48. The CBS Sports Network has the broadcast. FS1 has a battle of undefeated teams ranked in the top-twenty at 9:45 PM ET. BYU raised their record to a 7-0 mark last week with their 41-10 victory at home against Western Kentucky as a 31.5-point favorite. The Cougars are ranked ninth in the nation in the Associated Press poll. They travel to Boise State to play a Broncos team that is ranked 21st in the AP poll. Boise State opened their season with a 42-13 win at home against Utah State. They followed that up last week with their 49-30 victory at Air Force as a 13-point favorite. BYU is a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 61.5 The English Premier League begins their Matchweek 8 with two games. At 12:30 PM ET, Brighton and Hove Albion host Burnley as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. At 3 PM ET, Newcastle United travels to Southampton to face a Saints team that is a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. The NBC Peacock app broadcasts both games.

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NCAA Friday Night Football: NC State/Miami Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

The Friday night game on ESPN offers a battle of two teams from the ACC that return to action after a bye week.Miami (FL) has won their last two games to raise their record to a 5-1 mark after losing at Clemson on October 10th. They last played on October 24th when they defeated Virginia by a 19-14 score as a 13.5-point home favorite. The Hurricanes won the yardage battle by a 444-366 edge but still had to hang on for the victory. Miami enters this game ranked 11th in the nation in the Associated Press poll.Senior quarterback D’Eriq King completed 21 of 30 passes for 322 yards with a touchdown pass against the Cavaliers. The transfer from Houston added another 28 yards on the ground. For the season, King has completed 61.2% of his passes for 1401 yards with eleven touchdown passes and four interceptions. He has also added 301 rushing yards with two touchdowns. King is averaging 283.8 total yards of offense per game. Yet the Hurricanes have seen a dip in their offensive production over their last three games. After opening the season by averaging 43.3 points-per-game in their first three games, Miami is managing only 22.3 points-per-game along with 328.3 yards-per-game in their last three contests. The loss of productivity in the running game is one of the culprits in this decline as the Hurricanes are averaging 2.8 yards-per-carry in these previous three games. Junior running back Cam’ron Harris has rushed the ball 28 times for only 35 yards in those games. North Carolina State last played on October 24th when they lost at North Carolina by a 48-21 score. The Wolfpack were outgained by -186 net yards as they surrendered 578 yards to the Tar Heels. A -4 net turnover margin made matters even worse. That game was the first start for junior Bailey Hockman, who became the starting quarterback after sophomore Devin Leary broke his fibula the previous week against Duke. Hockman completed 14 of 24 passes for 215 yards against North Carolina with a touchdown and an interception before getting benched for freshman Ben Finley. Finley is the younger brother of former NC State starting quarterback Ryan, who now plays for the Cincinnati Bengals. Finley completed 13 of 20 passes for 143 yards but was pulled for Hockman again after he threw two interceptions. Hockman has completed 58.6% of his passes this season for 531 yards with three touchdown passes and four interceptions in four games. The former Florida State transfer should start tonight. The Wolfpack have 15 starters back from the team that finished a disappointing 4-8 last season. NC State has victories against Wake Forest and Duke, along with road wins at Pittsburgh and Virginia. After playing four of their five games on the road, they return home to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh for the first of a three-game homestand. This contest is the Wolfpack’s fourth game against a ranked opponent this season.These two teams last played each other in 2016. Miami is a 10.5-point favorite at BetAnySports, with the total at 58. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM ET.

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NFL Playoff Picture

by AAA Sports

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

NFL Playoff Picture: Well, we are officially at the halfway point in the 2020-21 NFL Season. Some teams have shocked us, and some organizations have been a disappointment. With the new format, 14 teams (7 from each conference,) will make the Playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the biggest news stories of the NFL so far this season as they are the last remaining undefeated squad. Who would have thought that the 38yr old Ben Roethlisberger would be leading his team to the best record in the entire league? As it stands right now, the Steelers and the Seahawks would get the  #1 seeds in each conference. Here's a look at the playoff picture right now and our predictions. If the playoffs ended today ...  AFC: #1 Steelers, #2 Chiefs, #3 Bills, #4 Titans, #5 Ravens, #6 Colts, #7 Browns. NFC: #1 Seahawks, #2 Bucs, #3 Packers, #4 Eagles, #5 Saints, #6 Cards, #7 Rams Predictions ...  AFC: #1 Chiefs, #2 Steelers, #3 Titans, #4 Bills, #5 Ravens, #6 Colts, #7 Raiders NFC: #1 Seahawks, #2 Packers, #3 Saints, #4 Eagles, #5 Cards, #6 Bucs, #7 Bears

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What does "Chalk" Mean in Sports Betting?

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 06, 2020

What does chalk mean in sports betting? The sports betting industry is all about making quick decisions and not wasting any precious time.  You could spend time writing down the full terms of individual sports betting statistics or using the slang terms.  There are dozens of terms bettors use in their daily sports betting talk, but today we're zooming in on 'chalk' and will explain what chalk means.You always have people who want to enjoy the adrenaline and excitement of wagering but don't feel like taking an inordinate amount of risk.  In any matchup, there's a favorite and an underdog.  In many cases, the games are quite competitive, and either team has a good shot to win the game.  However, sometimes there's a team which is considerably better than its opponent, and is a heavy favorite.  So, for example, a heavy NFL favorite may be favored by 10 points on the point spread, or be a -700 favorite on the money line.  Such heavy favorites are referred to as “chalk” (though the term chalk is also used to refer to any favorite, generally, regardless of size).Bettors who prefer to wager on the favorites are called chalk bettors.  Let's first look at the history behind the term chalk.  Then, we'll dive into the actual strategy behind betting chalk to see if there are alternatives that might work better than merely betting a heavy favorite. Why do we call it chalk? You might wonder, from where does the term chalk come?  Your first inclination might be to think of the old chalkboards you had back in your early days at primary school.  And, even though we're talking about sports betting here, you wouldn’t be far off.  The term actually came from one of the oldest sports that people started betting on -- horse racing.  Decades ago, before tote boards with computerized screens to display the odds were developed, sportsbooks at the horse tracks (or bookmakers in back rooms) used chalkboards to display (and change) the odds.As bettors took the favorites more often, these were the odds that got more frequent updates on the chalkboard.  At the end of the race, you'd see the horse's name that brought in most of the action covered in chalk dust.  And that early gambling term is still with us, today.  These days, however, you'll hear it in a slightly different context.  Some examples: You're a coward for only betting chalk. It was a very chalky NFL Sunday this past weekend. In the first round of the NCAA tournament, the chalk cleaned up nicely. As you can see, bettors have taken the term and have updated it to mean a range of things.  But, let’s take our discussion to anothe level, and ask whether betting on the chalk is worth it?  Does it bring in more cash than doing proper research and betting the underdog now and then?  Let's find out, shall we? Is betting chalk a good sports betting strategy? At first glance, betting the moneyline favorite might sound like a good strategy.  You log on to your favorite sportsbook, scan through the odds, and put in your preferred wagers.  And if you’re betting on heavy favorites, you might win anyway -- even if the odds were poor -- since it's such a heavy moneyline favorite you're betting on.  So, even if you win, because of the odds being so short, you won’t make that much money.  When you withdraw your funds from the sportsbook, you won’t have brought in the big bucks.It makes sense since most heavy favorites carry odds that aren't that interesting for a random wager.  Imagine a moneyline bet between the Boston Celtics and the New Orleans Pelicans.  Boston is not only the superior club, but is playing at home.  The oddsmakers at BookMaker thus install Boston as an 11.5-point home favorite, and set the moneyline odds at -800.  That means you need to stake $800 to win $100 on the moneyline.  It's a very high risk you're taking for a minimal payoff.  What if Boston has an off day, or if there’s an unexpected injury to Jayson Tatum announced right at game time?  A lot can happen in sports.  You may think the bet is “in the bag” when you made it, but sometimes the bag has a hole in it.In contrast, you could choose to bet on the point spread rather than the moneyline.  Or, if you still want to make a moneyline wager, you can choose a team at odds near even money.  Then, you won’t be risking a big stake, and you could walk away with a bigger payday.  Sometimes, it is worth it to take a bigger risk!  And, isn't that what sports betting is all about? Taking a little educated guess at picking a winner?  When you do your research to find the best bets, it makes more sense to take on more risk, and eventually brings you much bigger rewards.How to spot the favoriteBut, what if you prefer taking small risks to make small profits?  What if you're only wagering $10 on a -500 odds moneyline bet?  In that instance, you would only earn $2.  It's not much, but it could help you to build a bigger bankroll and eventually allow you to take more risks.  So where do you start?  And how do you select the right favorites?Back in the days, you could walk up to the counter of your Nevada sportsbook and ask the ticket writer to help you choose the best favorite available.  These days, most sportsbooks are online, and you can usually peruse the odds yourself.  Additionally, you might refer to other gambling websites to review the game match-ups to spot the best situations.  There are a lot of ways for gamblers to access meaningful data.  Here’s some advice if you’re looking to bet on the chalk: Check your favorite sports league to see the current standings.  If there's a team on top of its division, but is not so far ahead that it becomes disinterested, keep a close eye.  No matter whether it's the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL, if you spot a team that's outperforming virtually all of its opponents, but has yet to wrap up a playoff position, it might be worth a moneyline wager as big chalk. Check the schedule for any upcoming matches for this heavy favorite.  When it plays against an underperforming team, you might have a situation where you're almost assured a win.           Besides these, there are some other factors that could take your moneyline bet from good to great.  What if the team you’re betting on comes into its game off a rare loss, and wants to atone for that defeat?  And what if its underperforming opponent is off a rare win, and is ripe for a letdown?  Sometimes, the stars align, and you can bet on a big chalk which is highly motivated to win. What is an alternative to betting chalk? The beauty of sports betting in the 21st century is that you have unlimited digital access to sportsbooks and a wealth of information.  Certainly, there are innumerable strategies that you can use.  But we're not here to pick your strategy for you.  All we can do is give you some tips that will help you to develop your strategy.Dive into the statisticsThe first thing you need to do when betting on sports is to become familiar with the statistics.  There's not a single sports bettor who can attain success without ever looking at the statistics.  Imagine betting on the NBA and not knowing the Gregg Popovich-coached San Antonio Spurs are terrific at home when playing with revenge.  That's where you miss out on great wagering opportunities.  You can never keep track of too much -- losing streaks, home advantages, injuries, letdown situations, anything.  It can all contribute to making a wise decision, so take some time to get familiar with the statistics.Don't be afraid to call for helpThere's always a favorite, even in a sport like Golf, with matchups like Abraham Ancer against Webb Simpson at the TPC River Highlands.  But how do you find an edge?  It's not always possible to do the required research.  So, what do you do if you still want to make a bet -- perhaps just for entertainment?  What if you could consult with an expert to find the best bets?Professional handicappers do just that.  They work full-time to research sports and earn money by selling their picks to other sports bettors.  They usually track multiple leagues, and are able to find edges in competitions.  Most handicappers will also give you a free trial to check whether their services match your strategy.  So, especially if you don't have the requisite amount of time on your hands, it can be an intelligent decision to hire a professional.Pick the right sportsbookAnother crucial factor to winning at sports betting is picking the right sportsbook -- and especially if you want to bet on heavy chalk, or if you want to aggregate your chalk bets into parlay bets.  When you look into selecting the right sportsbook, there are a lot of things to consider:  whether it has a modern website, its odds, its banking methods, its sign-up bonuses, its wagering limits, etc.It goes without saying that not every sportsbook is tops at everything.  For example, if you like to play parlays and teasers, then BetAnySports would be your best option.  Likewise, if you want to only bet on straight bets (whether point spreads or moneylines), then BetAnySports (our current #1-rated sportsbook) should be your place to wager since it offers reduced juice (-105 odds rather than -110 odds).  However, if you want to bet $50,000 on an NFL side, then join BookMaker!   Of course, professional gamblers won’t just have one online sportsbook account; they’ll have three to five sportsbooks, at a minimum, so they can shop the lines to get the best numbers.  And another nice benefit of joining multiple sportsbooks is that they’ll give you great sign-up (and reload) bonuses.  For example, BetNow has the biggest sign-up and reload bonuses, and is our #2-rated sportsbook, overall.After reading this article, you now understand what chalk betting is all about.  The term chalk has a rich history and has brought many bettors a lot of money.  If you approach chalk betting the right way, you can flourish as a gambler!  But whatever you do, make sure you have some fun and never wager more than you're able to lose!

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