The regular season for the 2026 Apertura of the Argentina Liga Profesional de Futbol has come to an end with the playoffs set to start on Saturday, May 9. The league was split into 2 groups of 15 teams each with every team playing 16 matches and the top 8 teams from each group qualify for the playoffs. The winner of the playoffs will earn the 1st spot for Argentina in the 2027 Copa Libertadores tournament. The playoffs will consist of single-leg matches starting in the Round of 16 with the higher seeded team having home advantage up until the Final which will be played at a neutral venue. With the start of the playoffs just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance at winning it all this year.
Apertura Final Winner
Boca Juniors +350: Boca Juniors is coming into the playoffs as the favorite to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 2nd place with 30 points from an 8-6-2 record. They had one of the better goal differentials in the league as well at +13, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 9 goals. They have been in great form all season as well as coming into the playoffs and they certainly have one of the better squads in all of Argentina, but they do not have an easy path to the Final and they also have Copa Libertadores matches sprinkled in between which is going to take their focus away from this competition. They are facing Huracan in the 1st round and should win that at home, but Huracan is also a very tricky team with a good defense. They would have to face the winner of Argentinos Juniors and Lanus in the next round which will not be easy either, and then they could end up running into Independiente Rivadavia who has dominated the league this season. Boca Juniors certainly has the quality to win these playoffs and they are probably the best team in the league right now, but there is not a lot of value in them at this price as the favorite, especially when they will have Copa Libertadores matches taking their focus away. There is no real value in Boca Juniors at this price.
River Plate +500: River Plate is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 2nd place of their group with 29 points from a 9-2-5 record. They had the 2nd best goal differential in their group at +10, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches while allowing 12 goals. They had a very poor start to the season and ended up turning things around near the end, but they have been bested by better opponents this season and they certainly are not the dominant team that they usually are. They are one of the bigger clubs in all of Argentina and they are usually the best in the league, but this season they do not have the quality to make them the best and they have not performed up to standard. They also have Copa Sudamericana matches which they will likely not be as focused on with a chance to earn a Copa Libertadores spot in these playoffs, but those matches can still be a distraction to them as they will run into better rested teams. They have also struggled in Copa Sudamericana so far against weaker opponents and they do not have an easy path in this competition either. They may be the 2nd seed from their group and will likely get through San Lorenzo in the 1st round, but they will have to play the winner of Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia y Esgrima in the next round and Velez is a team that always gives them trouble when they meet. The other 4 teams that could potentially be in the next round after are all very solid teams in the league as well and this is one of the more difficult paths in the playoffs to go through. River Plate has been very inconsistent and unreliable in the league this season and paired with the fact that they have Copa Sudamericana matches as well as one of the more difficult paths in the playoffs, this is not a great price to take them at since they could see an earlier exit. There is no real value in River Plate to win it all at this price.
Estudiantes +900: Estudiantes is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 1st place of their group with 31 points from a 9-4-3 record. They had one of the better goal differentials in the league at +12, scoring 19 goals in their 16 matches while allowing 7 goals in those. They had the best defense in the whole league with those 7 goals allowed and that is going to carry them in this tournament. Their attack was also good, but they have struggled to create scoring chances in a lot of their matches this season and that is going to be a problem for them. They are also playing in Copa Libertadores which is a competition that they are highly focused on, so that is going to distract them from this competition as well. Estudiantes certainly has the quality to win it all, but they are not in a good position here. They have the Copa Libertadores matches to worry about, but they also have a very difficult path to the Final as well. They are playing Racing Club in the 1st round and Racing Club is not a typical 8 seed as they have the quality to be one of the better teams in the league. That is going to be a very tough match to get through and it is only going to get harder with the side of the bracket that they are on. This is not a bad price for a team that dominated their group in the regular season, but it is still not the best value for a team that is going to be distracted by a larger competition and also has one of the toughest paths to the Final. There is value in Estudiantes at this price, but they are not the best option to go with.
Rosario Central +900: Rosario Central is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 4th place of their group with 28 points from an 8-4-4 record. They had a very good attack as they scored 20 goals in their 16 matches, one of the higher scoring teams in the league, but they only had a +4 GD as their defense was not great, allowing 16 goals in their 16 matches. They have been in very good form coming into the playoffs and they have the quality to make a deep run here, but they are also in a similar position as Estudiantes who has the same odds. Rosario Central is currently in Copa Libertadores and they have been performing very well in the group stage, so they are going to be more focused on that competition and it will distract them from this one. They also have a very tough path to the Final as they are on the same side as Estudiantes. They have also struggled against Independiente in recent meetings, so they are going to have a very tough road right from the 1st round and there is a chance that they do not even make it out of that round. Playing in Copa Libertadores is going to be a big distraction for them along with having a very difficult path, and their defense has been conceding a lot of goals this season as well, so they are not going to have a good defense to lean on when their attack is failing. There are too many obstacles for Rosario Central to be considered a real threat in these playoffs. There is no real value in Rosario Central at this price.
Independiente Rivadavia +1200: Independiente Rivadavia is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 1st place of their group with 34 points from a 10-4-2 record. They were the most dominant team in the league this season as they were the only team to win 10 of their matches and led both groups in points as well. They did not have the best defense as they allowed 15 goals in their 16 matches, but they did have the best attack in the league as well as the best GD, scoring 29 goals in their 16 matches. They are also playing in Copa Libertadores this season so that is going to distract them, but they have still managed to juggle both competitions this season and be leading in both. They are playing against Union in the 1st round which is an easier opponent for them and they are going to have home advantage in every single match up until the Final. They are also on the weaker side of the bracket which is going to benefit them a lot. They have a very potent attack that will be able to score its way out of trouble at home and their defense is good enough to take them far as well. This is great value for a team that has been the most dominant team in their league all season with the best attack as well. There is some good value in Independiente Rivadavia to win it all at this price.
Argentinos Juniors +1400: Argentinos Juniors is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 3rd place of their group with 29 points from an 8-5-3 record. They did not have a very good GD at +4 though, scoring 17 goals in their 16 matches while allowing 13 goals in those. They finished the regular season playing in very good form and they have no other competitions to worry about either, so they do have an advantage there, but they still struggled to dominate teams all season. They won a lot of very close matches this season and despite winning half of their matches outright, they have still been a mediocre team all year. They do not have an easy match in the 1st round either, going up against Lanus who has been a solid team in the league all season. Lanus has also been very inconsistent so Argentinos Juniors could win that match easily or get blown out, but they are not going to have an easy path after the 1st round. They were also one of the worst away teams in their group this season and that will be a problem as they could be playing away from home every match after the 1st round. Argentinos Juniors is certainly in a better position than some of the other teams who are distracted by South American competitions, but they are not as dominant of a team in the league as their record suggests and that defense is going to cause problems for them as well. There is no real value in Argentinos Juniors to win it all at this price.
Lanus +1400: Lanus is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 6th place of their group with 24 points from a 6-6-4 record. They have been a very inconsistent team this season with the way that they played. They started the year on fire as the Copa Sudamericana champions and even beat Flamengo in the Recopa. They were in great form to start the season with a very potent attack that was scoring a lot of goals, but their defense was awful in those matches as they were conceding a lot of goals. Now their defense has been playing great over the last few weeks, not giving up any goals at all, but their attack has also flipped on them as they have not been scoring goals and that has affected their form. They did not finish the regular season with a great GD either, scoring 18 goals and allowing 15 goals in their 16 matches for a +3 GD. They are also playing in Copa Libertadores this season as the Copa Sudamericana champions from last year, so they are going to be distracted by that competition that they are more focused on and they have not been in good form coming into the playoffs either. They do not have an easy 1st match against Argentinos Juniors either, so there are a lot of obstacles in the way for this Lanus side and they will likely fizzle out well before the Final. There is no real value in Lanus at this price with how inconsistent they have been all season.
Racing Club +1400: Racing Club is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 8th place of their group with 21 points from a 5-6-5 record. They had a GD of +2 this season, scoring 17 goals in their 16 matches and allowing 15 goals in those. Racing Club certainly has the quality to be a threat in this competition and they are a much better team than a typical 8 seed would be. They did struggle during the regular season though and they have not been in great form recently either. They are playing in Copa Sudamericana matches as well, but they will likely be more focused on this competition with a chance to earn a Copa Libertadores spot. They have still been a very inconsistent team though and they are not going to have an easy path being on the tougher side of the bracket. They have a very difficult match in the 1st round against an Estudiantes side that dominated the league this season and it is only going to get harder from there. Racing Club has also put themselves in a bad position since they will be away from home in every game of the playoffs. Racing Club certainly has the quality to win it all, but they have not played like it for most of the season and there are much better options instead of this very inconsistent team with a very tough path. There is no real value in Racing Club to win it all at this price.
Velez Sarsfield +1400: Velez Sarsfield is coming into the playoffs as the team with the next best chance to win it all, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the Apertura regular season in 3rd place of their group with 28 points from a 7-7-2 record. They had a GD of +6 this season, scoring 18 goals in their 16 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. Velez certainly was not a stand out team in the league this season, but they are a very sound team that has the quality to be a threat in the playoffs. They have been in very good form coming into the playoffs and they do not have any South American competitions to take focus away from this competition either. They have an easier opponent in the 1st round with a match against Gimnasia and despite being on the tougher side of the bracket, they still have a better path to the Final. They would likely run into River Plate in the next round, but they have a very good history of giving River Plate trouble in the league and they have the quality to get through any other teams after that. Their defense has also been very good this season and they have been much better to end the season as well, so that is going to carry them in these playoffs. They were also a very balanced team in the regular season with home and away matches, so they are going to play well at home but can also win away from home with only 2 losses in all 16 matches this season. Velez has the quality as well as the defense to make a deep run in these playoffs, not distracted by other competitions either, and they also have the easiest path on the tougher side of the bracket. There is some good value in Velez Sarsfield to win it all at this price.
RecommendationThere are some very good teams in the league this season with plenty of different clubs having a real chance to win it all. The usual big clubs who dominate the league every year have not been playing their best this season and there has not been a dominant team in the league that is leagues above everyone else. There are 2 very good options that stand out amongst the rest though. Independiente Rivadavia at +1200 has some great value as they have been the most dominant team in the league this season and they do not have the toughest path to the Final either. Velez Sarsfield at +1400 is another great option from the tougher side of the bracket as they have both the quality and the experience to get through any team on that side. Independiente Rivadavia at +1200 and Velez Sarsfield at +1400 are the 2 best options to go with for a team to win the Apertura playoffs this season.
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