When Patience is Rewarded by Waiting for Race Day Odds Movement: Anatomy of Handicapping the Preakness Stakes
In the ever-evolving approach taken by horse owners and trainers when it comes to how to handle the three Triple Crown races for three-year-olds, it may have been the most underwhelming field for the Preakness Stakes I have ever handicapped. The two-week turnaround from the Kentucky Derby is simply considered too grueling. Unless the Kentucky Derby winner has a legitimate chance to win the Triple Crown, owners and trainers feel compelled to skip the Preakness Stakes and prepare for the Belmont Stakes. Only three horses that exited the Kentucky Derby were competing in this race — so I was comfortable to dismiss the trend that 17 of the last 25 Preakness Stakes winners competed at the Kentucky Derby. Those trends are reflective of a bygone era. Frankly, I was not putting much weight into the Kentucky Derby results at all — it was a weird race that I suspect will be considered an outlier with the benefit of hindsight. The middle of the field got clogged — that really hurt my Best Bet, Chief Wallabee, who closed late but did not have enough to finish in fourth place. There was a significant meltdown in pace late in that race — and that is what helped Ocelli finish in third place, and Incredibolt find a sixth-place result. I don’t take much from either effort after being skeptical about both horses going into the Derby (as well as Robusta that finished 14th at the Kentucky Derby). Of note was that the Preakness Stakes is taking place at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland, this year, given that major renovations were taking place at the Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The race was still 1 3/16 miles. All 14 horses in what is a very large field for the Preakness Stakes have question marks. If there was ever a triple crown race where patience is needed to reassess the odds after the Saturday morning and afternoon betting action impacts the odds, it was the 151st Preakness Stakes. I could make the case for about a half dozen of these horses. After assessing the odds at 5:30 PM ET, it was #9 Iron Honor that stood out. This was the morning line favorite all week at 9-2. I was considering this horse at those odds, but did not love it. But now that Iron Honor had fallen to 9-1, I considered those odds presenting a very nice overlay value (which is the name of the game). Certainly, there were red flags — but I thought the market had overreacted. The 1 3/16 mile distance was a question — but this horse was bred for distance. Iron Honor was sired by Nyquist, who won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Juvenile Cup. Iron Honor's last race was a disappointing seventh place at the Wood Memorial, where he posted a subpar Beyer figure of 76. But Iron Honor drew the outside post and encountered early trouble. The eye test watching this race rates it better than how it looked on paper. At 9-1 odds rather than 9-2 odds, I worry less about that effort. The positive aspects of this horse were that he won the Grade 3 Gotham with a Beyer figure of 90. In his previous race, his Beyer figure was 95. Not only does that 95 Beyer figure match him with Napoleon Solo for the highest mark in the field, but he was the only horse to post two Beyer figures in the 90s. And then there are his connections. His trainer is Chad Brown, who had previously won two Preakness Stakes by using the formula to bypass the Kentucky Derby to prepare for this race. The jockey was the proven veteran Flavien Prat. Brown was taking off the blinkers for this race, as it may have played a role in the bad early start at the Wood Memorial. The blinkers off could help Iron Honor stalk and close in a race that is expected to be very fast early on. I endorsed and made across-the-board Win, Place, Show bets with #9 Iron Honor. #1 Taj Mahal was the top favorite at 5-1 odds at 5:30 PM ET. I was kind of intrigued, given this horse winning all three races in his career, with all of them taking place at Laurel Park. His last race was the Federico Tesio — but winners of those races had then failed to win the Preakness Stakes 15 times in a row, with the best finish being a third place all the way back in 2000. The circumstances were different since those previous Preakness Stakes races were at Pimlico, but a trend like that probably also speaks to the quality of the competition that usually takes part at the Tesio. At 5-1, I trusted the historical numbers and threw out a horse that is on the rail and unproven at this step up in class.#5 Talkin intrigued me as a 20-1 longshot. But Talkin moved to 9-1, despite his highest Beyer figures being 87 and 85. I looked at #6 Chip Honcho, who had fallen from 5-1 to 10-1 odds as of 5:30 PM ET — but trainer Steve Asmussen had just two second-place finishes in the last 13 Preakness Stakes, so I dismissed this horse that had Beyer figures of 73-92-78 in his last three races. For my boxed trifecta bet, I added #7 The Hell We Did and #10 Napoleon Solo to my Best Bet #9 Iron Honor. I put some trust in trainer Todd Fletcher and jockey Luis Saez for The Hell We Did. His best Beyer figure was 92. Bred for distance by Authentic. At his morning line 15-1 odds, I might have overlooked his light on seasoning experience in races like this. With his odds now at 9-1, I simply prefer Iron Honor. I used similar logic for Napoleon Solo. At 8-1, I worried about the distance and how he would handle the pace. But Napoleon Solo was the only Grade One winner in the field with his victory at Champagne seven months ago, where he posted that Beyer of 95. That lone Grade One winner in the field intangible proved telling as Napoleon Solo won the race, closing at 7-1 odds. But Iron Honor finished in second place, trailing by 1 1/4 lengths. With closing odds of 8-1, Iron Horse paid nicely for Place and Show Bets for a tidy profit when subtracting the Win bet that just missed. We missed the boxed trifecta as The Hell We Did finished in seventh place (hindsight is 20/20 about a boxed exacta bet with Napoleon Solo and Iron Horse).Dismissing #1 Taj Mahal proved prescient as that horse was outclassed and finished in tenth place. #5 Talkin’ finished last — so the odds movement on Saturday was irrational. #6 Chip Honcho did finish in third place — but trainer Steve Asmussen still has just two second-place finishes in the last 14 Preakness Stakes.On to the Belmont Stakes!Best of luck — Frank.
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