NFL THURSDAY NIGHT O/U DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
- Release Date
- 10/29/2026 06:19 PM
- Event Date
- 10/29/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers Over 46.5 (-120)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (109) and the Green Bay Packers (110). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 43-13 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (4-3) had won three games in a row before their 20-17 loss in Detroit against the Lions as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Carolina got caught by a desperate Buccaneers team last week that made a few needed tactical adjustments that caught them by surprise. The Bucs abandoned their pass-first approach with Mayfield and successfully committed to running the ball 49 times. They also did not blitz nearly as much as their head coach, Todd Bowles, tends to do. The game script played a role as well. The Panthers suffered a -4 net turnover margin and went into halftime trailing by a 33-6 score. Carolina had to abandon their rushing attack and rely on quarterback Bryce Young’s arm — and he only completed 14 of 27 passes for 163 yards before getting pulled for backup Kenny Pickett once the game was out of hand. But the Panthers should get their offensive attack going again — especially given some injuries that the Packers are experiencing. Their linebacker room is banged up with both Zaire Franklin and Edgerrin Cooper out for this game — and Micah Parson is still not ready to take the field. If there was one silver lining from getting blown out on Sunday for the Panthers, it was that running back Chuba Hubbard only ran the ball seven times — so he is relatively rested for this game on a short week. He ranks sixth in the NFL for qualifying running backs by generating 3.8 Yards-After-Contact. The Packers defense gives up the seventh most yards after contact — so their injuries at linebacker are a significant problem, especially after Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 29 times against them on Sunday. Carolina likes to deploy outside zone blocking schemes as well — and Green Bay is surrendering 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry against that concept. This should better set up play-action for quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers are using play-action in 32% of their dropbacks — and Young is generating 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in those situations. Green Bay’s defense ranks 21st in the league in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Carolina has played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points since Canales became their head coach. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. Green Bay’s defense gave up 415 yards last week to the Lions. The Packers did get back running back Josh Jacobs in that game — but he looked rusty and generated only 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. But Green Bay has a good opportunity to run the ball better tonight against this Panthers defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Rush Allowed this season — and that will set up quarterback Jordan Love with their passing game and play-action. The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when played on a Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (109) and the Green Bay Packers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
