25* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
- Release Date
- 10/29/2026 05:40 PM
- Event Date
- 10/29/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Carolina Panthers +3.5 (+100)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (109) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (110). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 43-13 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (4-3) had won three games in a row before their 20-17 loss in Detroit against the Lions as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina got caught by a desperate Buccaneers team last week that was getting Baker Mayfield back at quarterback, and that made a few needed tactical adjustments that caught them by surprise. The Bucs abandoned their pass-first approach with Mayfield and successfully committed to running the ball 49 times. They also did not blitz nearly as much as their head coach, Todd Bowles, tends to do. The game script played a role as well. The Panthers suffered a -4 net turnover margin and went into halftime trailing by a 33-6 score. It happens — and I’m not reading too much into it. Carolina head coach Dave Canales has been very good at getting his team to bounce back after setbacks. In fact, they are consistently inconsistent in his tenure. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 straight games after a straight-up loss (but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win). They have also covered the point spread in 15 straight games after a loss as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss — so Canales does not need a catastrophe to get his team to play better the next time out. Of course, it’s Thursday Night Football, so injuries impact the game. Carolina is without left guard Damien Lewis for tonight, and right tackle Taylor Moten may be out for the season. Linebacker Jaelon Phillips is also out with an injury. But Green Bay has its share of issues as well. They are missing two offensive linemen as center Sean Rhyan and guard Travis Glover are out — and that is after the August season-ending injury to right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele. Their linebacker room is banged up with both Zaire Franklin and Edgerrin Cooper out for this game — and Micah Parson is still not ready to take the field. If there was one silver lining from getting blown out on Sunday for the Panthers, it was that running back Chuba Hubbard only ran the ball seven times — so he is relatively rested for this game on a short week. He ranks sixth in the NFL for qualifying running backs by generating 3.8 Yards-After-Contact. The Packers defense gives up the seventh most yards after contact — so their injuries at linebacker are a significant problem, especially after Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 29 times against them on Sunday. Carolina likes to deploy outside zone blocking schemes as well — and Green Bay is surrendering 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry against that concept. This should better set up play-action for quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers are using play-action in 32% of their dropbacks — and Young is generating 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in those situations. Green Bay’s defense ranks 21st in the league in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. In Young’s 11 starts in prime time, Carolina has won 7 of those games after their upset win against Detroit on Thursday night beginning Week Four. The Panthers have covered the point spread in all 3 of Young’s starts played on a short week. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay is frustrated by missing two field goals inside 35 yards last week against the Lions — but they got outgained by -91 net yards. The Packers cannot run the ball — they rank last in Expected Points Added per Rush and 30th in Rush Success Rate. Overall, they rank 28th in Success Rate on offense. This inability to run the ball is impacting their passing game as they also rank 20th in Pass Success Rate. As opposed to Canales, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has struggled to get his team ready to play when facing adversity. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss against a fellow NFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Packers — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their 47 games under LaFleur as a single-digit favorite. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (109) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
