ASA's SUN BELT SMASH HIT - 44-28 CFB Run!
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Troy vs James Madison
- Release Date
- 10/29/2026 02:38 PM
- Event Date
- 10/29/2026 07:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
James Madison -19 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #112 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -19 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET
JMU is off their first loss of the season and back at home where they’ve destroyed every team they’ve faced with the exception of Liberty. There 3 other homes games were wins by margins of 84 points (vs Wagner), 28 points (vs Marshall), and 27 points (vs Georgia State). JMU should be able to run away with this one vs a Troy team that can’t score. The Dukes are averaging 41.4 PPG (5th in the country) and the Trojans have been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. They’ve lost 4 of those 5 games and been held under 5.0 YPP in all but 1. That includes a 21-14 home loss last week vs UL Monroe who came into the game with an 0-6 record with 4 of those losses coming by at least 17 points. Troy had only 200 total yards on 3.1 YPP in that game vs a ULM team that came into that game allowing 525 YPG which was 137th out of 138 teams. Now they face a very good James Madison defense that is allowing only 18 PPG on the season. Troy has 3 wins this season vs FCS Alabama State, vs Southern Miss (we have USM power rated 127th in the country), and vs Sam Houston State (we have SHSU rated 131st in the country), all home games for the Trojans vs terrible teams. JMU will be the 2nd highest rated team Troy has played this season behind Missouri. The Trojans have a negative YPP margin and a losing record despite playing the 133rd most difficult schedule to date. James Madison’s schedule hasn’t been anything overly difficult either, however they are 7-1 and outgain their opponents by an average of more than 100 YPG (+1.7 YPP margin). Troy’s starting QB Crowder has a bad shoulder and exited each of the last 2 games. If he plays, he’s nowhere near 100% and can’t be expected to finish this one. His back up Gilcrease is a senior but has a career completion rate of just 57% and has attempted only 15 passes this season. This number may seem high, but JMU was favored by 24.5 vs Troy last year and that game was on the road. We’ll get a motivated and angry James Madison team here and we look for a blowout.
