Nelly’s TNF Early Release Winner 8-1 NFL RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
- Release Date
- 10/28/2026 06:27 PM
- Event Date
- 10/29/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Carolina Panthers +4 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Panthers had only 265 yards last season at Lambeau Field but pulled out an upset with two turnovers and a missed field goal factors working against the Packers. Green Bay’s three-game winning streak was snapped in Detroit last week and the Packers have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of seven games. The Panthers have won ATS in 13 consecutive games following a loss since late in the 2024-25 season and 3-3 Carolina just allowed 43 points at home for an ugly result last week as this is a group that should be focused while still sitting with the NFC South lead. Carolina may be a bit healthier in the short week as the offensive line issues for the Packers are back in the forefront of the injury report this week. Even against a struggling Detroit defense, Green Bay managed only 17 points last week with virtually no success running the ball even in the return of Josh Jacobs. The past three games for Green Bay have all come against defenses in the league’s bottom 12 rankings in yards per play yet the Packers average just over 20 points per game for the season, near the bottom of the NFL. This could be a key game in the NFC wild card picture by season’s end though despite the similar records Carolina is a 1st place team and Green Bay is a 4th place team in the division standings ahead of Week 8. Green Bay being just a slight home favorite against a team that just lost to a losing team by 30 points shows that these teams are likely very close in overall caliber. The Packers are just 4-4 S/U in the past eight home games while losing S/U and ATS in three straight home games as a favorite of fewer than six points. Carolina has covered in five of the past seven games as a road underdog while Bryce Young has outpaced Jordan Love in both QBR and QB Rating this season. Expect a close game in this Thursday NFC clash while Thursday home favorites are just 6-10 ATS since the start of last season including the Packers losing S/U in the role in Week 3.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
