Fargo's NFL Thursday Primetime (15-1-1 YTD)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
- Release Date
- 10/26/2026 04:34 PM
- Event Date
- 10/29/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Carolina Panthers +4 (-114)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. We are going against the public play and riding the reverse line move as this lookahead number was Green Bay -3 and then was released on Sunday night at -4.5 and has come down despite nearly 80 percent of the money on the Packers. This likely will not hit 3 because once the public gets involved, it will be all Green Bay. The Packers are coming off a Sunday loss at Detroit on a field goal as time expired but they were dominated more than that as they were outgained by 91 yards. They will be popular for a rebound as they looked like they turned the corner, but in reality, the schedule was their friend. Carolina is coming off a blowout loss against Tampa Bay but were outgained by just 56 yards as the difference was a -4 turnover margin. The liability for the Panthers is their inability to stop the run as we saw last week against Tampa Bay as they are No. 30 in Defensive Rushing EPA but they should be just fine here. Green Bay cannot run the ball as it has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and while Josh Jacobs is back, he is not in mid-season form as he rushed for 36 yards on 11 carries and that was against a Detroit defense that is No. 26 in Defensive Rushing EPA. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 74-37 (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (109) Carolina Panthers
