TDG’s NFL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/14/2026 07:06 PM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 43 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* AFC West Total of the Month is on the Denver Broncos/Kansas City Chiefs under at 8:15 pm et.
These two AFC West rivals usually play lower-scoring games. The last six games between these two teams have ended in 33, 41, 38, 30, 33, and 27 combined points scored. No more than 37 combined were scored in the last three of these games played in Kansas City. The last time these teams played was on Christmas Day last December after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. The Chiefs defense still played well in a 20-13 loss as a 13.5-point underdog. Mahomes has recovered, yet he did not play in the preseason. Like Matthew Stafford and Dan Prescott last night, we have seen veteran quarterbacks struggle in their opening game in the regular season after not playing in the preseason. Kansas City is also without starting left tackle Josh Simmons who is out with a back injury. It will be Kahlil Benson starting at left tackle tonight. The undrafted rookie free agent did not play this position in college. Given this, head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will probably institute a conservative game plan that revolves around running the football with free agent signing Kenneth Walker. Since Reid became their head coach. The Chiefs have played forty-two of their previous sixty-five games at home under the number when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 42.5 to 49. They have played eleven of their previous fourteen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite, and they have played four straight unders at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of seven points or less.
Denver was perhaps a Bo Nix injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. After Nix injured his ankle in the Broncos’ 33-30 win at home in overtime against Buffalo, the Broncos offense only scored a touchdown in their 10-7 loss at home against New England in the AFC championship game. Denver averaged only 23.7 points per game last year, ranking middle of the pack 14th in the NFL. In division games, they averaged only 19.2 points per game. Yet the Broncos’ defense only gave up 18.3 points per game, ranking third in the NFL. Against division opponents, they held them to 13.7 points per game. Nine starters from that defense will play tonight. The team replaced defensive end John Franklin-Myers in the offseason, and linebacker Jonathon Cooper is suspended due to legal trouble. The Broncos have played twelve of their eighteen games under the total against division opponents since Sean Payton became their head coach. They have played seven of their previous eleven games on the road under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They have played twenty of their previous twenty-seven games in prime time under the total. Play the under.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
