NFL MONDAY NIGHT O/U DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/14/2026 06:25 PM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 43.5 (-112)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Kansas City Chiefs (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) comes off a 15-4 season that ended in a 10-7 loss at home against New England in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City (0-0) looks to bounce back from a 6-11 campaign last year.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Entering the fourth season under Payton, there are a few things that we know. The Denver defense is outstanding — and it is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). Yet this team will still only go as far as Nix can take them — and that remains a significant question. Just how high is the ceiling for him? He did orchestrate seven successful winning drives last year — and he has led the team to 24 regular season victories in the last two seasons. On the other hand, Nix ranked just 26th in the league in Passer Rating and 25th in Passing Success Rate. He also ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added per dropback. He struggles to execute passing plays in play action. The Broncos have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. They have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as the underdog. Kansas City’s season effectively ended on December 14th last season when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Mahomes has made a remarkable recovery — and the reports in training camp suggest he looks recovered and rejuvenated. That said, I suspect that the offense will focus on new running back Kenneth Walker, whom they acquired in free agency — especially with the return of Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator, who values the running game very much. The Chiefs defense was still very good last season. They limited their opponents to 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking sixth-best in the league. Kansas City has played 8 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 15 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC West rivals Under the Total — and those games averaged -7.1 PPG below the Over/Under number. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against divisional opponents. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Denver (0-0) comes off a 15-4 season that ended in a 10-7 loss at home against New England in the AFC Championship Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.
