- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (482) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) looks to bounce back from a 6-11 campaign last year. Denver (0-0) comes off a 15-4 season that ended in a 10-7 loss at home against New England in the AFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games under head coach Sean Payton in the first two weeks of the regular season. I was unsure what to make of the Broncos after my deep dive into this team last year. I was impressed with the continued improvement of this team under head coach Sean Payton — he deserved credit for leading this team back to the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl-winning 2015-16 season. His team did this despite posting a Broncos’ 1-6 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and I indicated that “would be something I would expect to even out over time by the Regression Gods.” Well, those Regression Gods moved fast as Denver went 12-3 in games decided by one scoring possession last season — if not for the ankle injury to quarterback Bo Nix in their overtime victory against Buffalo, they may not have lost at home against New England by a 10-7 score in the AFC Championship Game with backup Jarrett Stidham under center. I’m not sure the Broncos would have been much more competitive — even with Nix — in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks. They were just fifth in the AFC with their +90 net point differential for the season. In beating the Bills at home in the AFC Divisional round, they got outgained by 100 yards but benefited from five Buffalo turnovers. They went three-and-out in their first possession in overtime. When getting the ball back after a Josh Allen interception, they were gifted two defensive pass interference penalties, accounting for 47 yards to put them in field goal position for the winning kick. On the season, seven of their victories were by four points or less. They only had three decisive victories by double-digits — and two of those wins were against Cincinnati with Jake Browning at quarterback and the Los Angeles Chargers using Trey Lance under center in a meaningless game for them in the final week of the regular season. Entering the fourth season under Payton, there are a few things that we know. The Denver defense is outstanding — and it is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). But the team is without starting linebacker Jonathon Cooper, who is on the commissioner’s exempt list and will likely get suspended for domestic violence legal charges. His absence takes away one of the team’s best run defenders. Furthermore, the offensive line may very well be the best in the NFL. Perhaps it is the state of the defense and the offensive line that compelled Payton to make very few changes to the roster for this season. Frankly, I don’t think I have ever seen fewer additions to a roster from year to year. The Broncos almost completely avoided the free agent tax that good teams endure in the offseason. Considering that deadweight Russell Wilson contract is finally off the books, the lack of activity is a testament to what a great job Payton and general manager George Paton have done in their rebuild. The big splash Payton made was acquiring wide receiver Jaylen Waddle from Miami for a first- and third-round draft pick. The expectation is that his speed and ability to catch balls in the middle of the field will open up the passing game. Besides that, Denver signed only two free agents to offer depth on defense. They drafted another seven rookies in the April draft, although three of them were picks in the seventh round. It’s a great situation, on paper, yet this team will still only go as far as Nix can take them — and that remains a significant question. Just how high is the ceiling for him? He did orchestrate seven successful winning drives last year — and he has led the team to 24 regular season victories in the last two seasons. On the other hand, Nix ranked just 26th in the league in Passer Rating and 25th in Passing Success Rate. He also ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added per dropback. He struggles to execute passing plays in play action. Every year, I think the Broncos are getting better under Payton — but that does not guarantee continued improving results. Only the 2022 Minnesota Vikings and the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs had 11 victories by one-scoring possession like Denver did last year. That Vikings team went from 13-4 that season to 7-10 the next year while the Chiefs dropped from 15-2 two seasons ago to just 6-11 last year. Like last offseason, I remain unsure as to what to really make of this Broncos team. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games in September. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when the total is set in the 42.5-49 point range. Furthermore, the Broncos are 11-21-1 ATS in their last 33 games in prime time. Kansas City’s season effectively ended on December 14th last season when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs had a 6-8 record at the time — and they would lose their final three games to end the year. Mahomes has made a remarkable recovery — and the reports in training camp suggest he looks recovered and rejuvenated. In Mahomes, I trust. In head coach Andy Reid, I trust — and the same goes for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. I love that Reid brought back his trusted advisor Eric Bieniemy as his offensive coordinator again. I think he is a significant upgrade over previous OC Matt Nagy. I don’t know why Bieniemy has never been offered an NFL head coaching gig (but it is probably a similar reason as it is for Vance Jones, unfortunately) or why Bieniemy’s recent offensive coordinator gigs did not last — but the football world’s loss is Kansas City’s gain. The Chiefs defense was still very good last season. They limited their opponents to 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking sixth-best in the league. Kansas City outscored their opponents by +2.0 PPG and outgained them by +19.1 net YPG. It was a 1-9 record in games decided by one scoring possession (1-7 with Mahomes). After winning all 12 of their games decided by one scoring possession in reaching the Super Bowl two years ago, they were probably due a visit from the Regression Gods. That said, I firmly believe that winning close games is not simply coin flips that too many in the analytics community presume. I think winning close games involves game management skills — and while some head coaches are very good at making smart decisions in tight games, there are plenty of dopes who make terrible decisions in close games (and many of them are considered offensive “geniuses”). Kansas City won 17 games two years ago — and while that number may have been a product of some fortunate breaks, they did not get many breaks last season, winning eight fewer games in the regular season. I expect a strong effort tonight. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games — but there is one spot where they remain extremely reliable. In Mahomes’ 43 games when Kansas City is not favored by more than a field goal (including when they are an underdog), the Chiefs are 30-13-1 ATS. The marriage of Mahomes, Reid, and Spagnuolo just win — and Reid’s teams have covered the point spread in 52 of their 80 games in his head coaching career when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (482) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
