VW'S NFL MNF 2-0 SIDE-AND-TOTAL SWEEP
- Handicapper
- Vegas Writer
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/14/2026 10:19 AM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 43.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Kansas City holds a 73-59 all-time series advantage, but recent meetings have grown more competitive and consistently low-scoring. After the Chiefs won 16 consecutive matchups from 2015 through the first meeting in 202 - with Patrick Mahomes winning his first 12 starts against Denver - the Broncos have captured four of the past five outright, including three straight and a 2025 season sweep. Denver has also covered seven of the past nine meetings, confirming that the rivalry’s competitive gap has narrowed substantially.
That shift has been driven largely by defense. The Under has cashed in six consecutive meetings, with those games producing 33, 41, 38, 30, 33 and 27 combined points. Kansas City has also stayed Under in 11 of its past 12 games, making Under 43.5 the strongest overall wager tonight.
Denver finished 2025 third in scoring defense, first in yards allowed per play and second on third down while generating an NFL-high 68 sacks. That pressure presents an especially difficult matchup for Mahomes, who is returning only nine months after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee. With starting left tackle Josh Simmons unavailable, Andy Reid should emphasize Kenneth Walker III, quick passes and ball security instead of exposing Mahomes to repeated downfield dropbacks.
Sean Payton has equally little incentive to invite a shootout. Bo Nix is returning from two ankle surgeries, allowing Denver to lean on its offensive line, control possession and settle for Wil Lutz field goals when drives stall. Mahomes also averaged a career-low 7.1 yards per attempt last season.
With two quarterbacks returning from significant injuries and six straight series Unders, this divisional opener should remain deliberate, physical and comfortably below 43.5 points.
