ASA MNF Primetime NFL Top! 5-0 (100%) MNF Run
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/14/2026 05:13 AM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Denver Broncos +2.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- ASA play on: Denver Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs at 8:15 PM ET - Last season the Broncos were better than the Chiefs in most key statistical categories and overall record. Denver finished the season 14-3 SU with a +90 net scoring differential whereas the Chiefs were 6-11 SU with a +34 point differential. Denver was 12th in total yards compared to the Chiefs ranking 20th. The Broncos defense allowed the 2nd fewest total yards per game, the Chiefs gave up the 10th most. Some would argue that the Chiefs numbers were misleading considering QB Mahomes was injured last season. Mahomes did play in 14/17 games so that isn’t as big a factor as some might have you believe. There are a few key aspects in this game that have us on the Broncos. Denver averaged 4.0 sacks per game a year ago (1st) and will pressure Mahomes who may not be as mobile coming off his injury. KC ranked 22nd in sacks allowed per game a year ago – 22nd most. Kansas City addressed a need in the offseason by signing RB Kenneth Walker III who should improve a Chiefs rushing game that averaged just 4.2YPR a year ago (20th) but he’ll face a stout Denver D that allowed the 6th lowest YPR average last season at 3.9. The Broncos defense allowed an average of 98.5 rushing yards per game in 2025, 4th best in the league. Denver did a much better job of sustaining drives a year ago with the 10th best 3rd conversion percentage at 41% and the Chiefs D allowed a 3rd down conversion rate of 44% - 4th worst. Denver beat this Chiefs team twice last season 22-19 in Denver and 20-13 in KC. In the road win the Broncos held the Chiefs (w/o Mahomes) to 139 total yards while putting up 303 themselves. The betting markets have a slight bias towards the Chiefs in terms of more money, but the Books are refusing to move this line to -3 which tells us something. Denver wins this one outright.
