TOM'S 40-16 ATS NFL MONDAY NIGHT BEST BET
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/13/2026 11:37 PM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-127)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #482 KANSAS CITY (-) over Denver at 8:15 PM EST
The Broncos won the AFC West last season, and that has not gone unnoticed by Chiefs head coach Andy Reid or quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Seeking revenge for three prior losses, Kansas City will defend Arrowhead Stadium and earn a major division win and cover against Denver.
From a technical standpoint, this is a strong spot for the home team. In season openers dating back to 1983, Kansas City is 27-16 SU and 26-16-1 ATS, including an impressive 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS when listed as a favorite or pick ’em. Since 1985, division home underdogs or short favorites of -3 or less playing their opener have gone a profitable 51-26-2 ATS when coming off a season with at least six wins. When that team faces an opponent that won nine or more games the previous year, the angle improves to a remarkable 40-16-1 ATS. That points in the Chiefs’ favor.
Denver has had issues in road openers, posting a modest 7-15 SU and 9-13 ATS record. In that span, when priced as an underdog or short favorite of -6 or less, the Broncos fall to 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS. They have also struggled in true road games, with head coach Sean Payton and his boys going 24-51 SU and 30-43-2 ATS over their last 75. Against division opponents, that mark drops to 6-22 SU and 9-18-1 ATS, including 4-10 SU and 2-11-1 ATS when favored or taking up to +3. That creates a difficult setup for Denver.
Even this early, the AFC West race could hinge on this matchup. Kansas City has the home-field edge and should take advantage. Take the Chiefs. Thanks, and best of luck, Tom.
