NFL 20-Star Total Annihilator - Monday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 09/12/2026 08:10 PM
- Event Date
- 09/14/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 43.5 (-105)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Broncos-Chiefs Monday Night game has the feel of a lower-scoring affair after looking at both defenses and quarterback situations trending toward the UNDER. Denver has one of the top defenses returning in football after posting 68 sacks a year ago, and they will return most of that defensive front seven. The Broncos pass rush will be key against Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is making his first start of the regular season since tearing his ACL in Week 15 last season. Expect Mahomes to play, but Kansas City might lean on their run game and limit his exposure early in his comeback.
Kansas City’s defense still has plenty of talent to disrupt Denver quarterback Bo Nix. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones is expected to play despite dealing with a calf injury throughout the week. The Chiefs will still be able to pressure Nix and force Denver to rely on sustained drives rather than chunk plays.
There are also some nice betting trends in the UNDER’s favor. Kansas City went 13-4 to the UNDER last season, including 8-1 at home, while Denver went 11-8 to the UNDER. This game is also both teams’ season opener and a division matchup. Both of those tend to lead to more conservative play-calling as offenses work through early-season timing issues.
Denver will want to rely on their running game and defense to control the clock, while Kansas City has every reason to stick with the run and keep Mahomes safe. If both offenses are forced to sustain long drives, we could see teams settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the scoring under the posted number.
Jim’s Play: 481. Broncos/ Chiefs UNDER
