25* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
- Release Date
- 07/31/2026 02:41 PM
- Event Date
- 07/31/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Over 7.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (961) and the Houston Astros (962). THE SITUATION: Texas (55-54) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in Tampa Bay against the Rays on Thursday. Houston (55-550 has won three games in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 7-4 win in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They stay on the road for their fourth straight game — and they have played 18 of their last 28 road games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row on the road. Texas has also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 34 road Over the Total when priced as a money-line underdog at +110 or higher. They give the ball to Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 10-8 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 20 starts this season. After a good start to the season, the right-hander has been quite mediocre since. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in three of his last four and nine of his last eleven starts. In his last 10 starts, he is saddled with a 4.45 ERA. He has been more effective at home, where he has a 1.06 WHIP in eight starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, he has a 1.24 WHIP. Texas has played 11 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total with Eovaldi on the mound is priced in the +/- 125 price range. He faces an Astros team that ranks 14th and 10th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Houston has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a day off. After playing their last six games on the road, the Astros return home, where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They counter with Hunter Brown, who has a 2-1 record with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in nine starts. Since returning from injury, the right-hander has not been himself. Admittedly, he threw seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball in his last start in Chicago against the White Sox — but I don’t think that is sustainable quite yet. His velocity has been down, which has impacted his strikeout rate on his four-seam fastball. In his previous four starters before that effort, he had a 7.98 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. His fastball was back up to 97 miles per hour against the White Sox — but that pitch also had more than two fewer inches of vertical movement, leaving it flatter than his typical fastball. It’s fair to say that he is not out of the woods yet in his return after getting injured in late March after two starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression as well. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.51 and 4.28 moving forward. He has not been as effective at home either, where he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in five starts as opposed to his 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank ninth and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They rank seventh and four in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created this month — and they have played 18 of their 23 games in July Over the Total. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (961) and the Houston Astros (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.
