Vegas Writer - Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

VW'S MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH

Handicapper
Vegas Writer
League
MLB
Competition
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Release Date
07/31/2026 12:39 PM
Event Date
07/31/2026 06:10 PM
Bet Type
Run Line
Pick
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-145) (DraftKings)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
We're going to play the Cincinnati Reds plus the run and a half, in the event we get sniped at the end of the game due to a bullpen mismatch. That said, it wouldn't shock me if the Reds annihilate the Pittsburgh Pirates in this National League Central showdown. I don't care much about listing pitchers - why would I when the Reds have Hunter Greene up and the Bucs have Paul Skenes on the hill - but rather am looking at the Pirates' recent three-game skid. That said, Skenes is only 9-9 with a 3.65 ERA in 22 starts this season, and over his last seven trips to the hill, is 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA. And the fact is, there's no guarantee he'll have the bullpen support he'll need. During their recent 1-6 slide, the Pirates have a staff ERA of 4.04 while allowing an average of 4.9 runs per game. He also could struggle to find run support, as the Bucs are hitting .223 in the last seven games and averaging only 2.8 runs per game. The Reds won last night's game, 3-2, and have now won eight of 13 since mid-July. And if there is one thing that stands out to me during the 8-5 run is that they've hit 20 home runs along the way. In facing a hard-throwing starter like Skenes, the Reds lineup may thrive with the longball. Take the run line and play the Reds with my NL CENTRAL GAME OF THE MONTH.

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