- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB Game of the Month is on the Milwaukee Brewers with the money line versus the Los Angeles Angels at 9:38 pm et.
The Milwaukee Brewers get back to business after getting Thursday off. They come into this weekend series in Los Angeles against the Angels having lost two of their previous three games after a 16-3 loss in San Francisco against the Giants on Wednesday. The Brewers have won eight of their previous ten games after losing their previous game. They have won eleven of their previous sixteen games after a day off. Despite the recent slide, Milwaukee still has a 67-41 record, the second-best record in MLB. They are in first place in the NL Central, 5 1/2 games ahead of the Chicago Cubs. Their dominance has not been a fluke, given their +132 net run differential, which equates to a 67-41 Pythagorean record. They have a 31-21 record on the road, and they have won twenty of their previous twenty-nine games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -110 or higher. They have won twenty-one of their previous thirty-three games in interleague play. They are playing great in night games where they have won forty-two of their previous sixty-five games, and they have won twenty-one of their previous thirty-one road games played at night. In the last two months, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game with a .267 batting average, a .335 on-base percentage, and a .441 slugging percentage in those 53 games. In the last week, the Brewers are averaging 5.3 runs per game with a .299 batting average, a .358 on-base percentage, and a .468 slugging percentage in those six games. Their hitters get a tasty opportunity to pad their stats against the Angels’ Ryan Johnson. The right-hander has a 2-5 record with a 7.34 era and a 1.54 whip in eleven games and eight starts. His problems start with the velocity on his fastball, which comes in at only 92.1 miles per hour, ranking in the lowest 16th percentile. He is striking out only 18.0% of opposing hitters, ranking in the lowest 18th percentile. Johnson is getting ground balls on only 38.2% of the batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 28th percentile. Unfortunately, that leaves plenty of bad outcomes remaining, which explains his era over 7.00 runs per game. He has given up eleven home runs at a 2.38 home runs per nine innings clip.
Los Angeles has lost sixteen of their twenty-two games in the second half of the season this year. They have lost three in a row and six of their previous seven games after a 7-4 loss at home against Houston on Wednesday. With a 42-67 record, they are tied with the Colorado Rockies for the worst record in MLB. They have won just eight of their previous twenty-two games after losing two games in a row. They have won three times in their previous thirteen games after a day off. At home, they have a 24-31 record, and they have won just three of their previous twelve games at home. They have pulled off upsets in only twelve of their thirty games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog. They have beaten just six of their eighteen interleague opponents when playing at home in games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. At home, they are averaging 3.7 runs per game with a .227 batting average, a .304 on-base percentage, and a .345 slugging percentage in those fifty-five games. They face the Brewers’ Shane Drohan who has something to prove after giving up five earned runs in six innings against Colorado on Sunday. It was the first time in his previous seven starts that he gave up more than three earned runs. For the year, he has a 5-4 record with a 3.51 era and a 1.20 whip in twenty-one games which includes seven starts. The rookie deserves better. Opposing hitters have a .303 batting average in the balls put into play against him, despite the MLB babip average being .287. The lefty is stranding 69.1% of opposing hitters, despite the MLB left-on-base rate being 72.2%. He is another starting pitcher with good chase rates that correlate with a low walk rate. Opposing hitters are chasing 33.9% of his pitches that are outside the strike zone, ranking in the highest 81st percentile. He is walking only 6.7% of opposing hitters, ranking in the highest 77th percentile. In his last three starts, he has a 2.16 era (even after the subpar outing against the Rockies). The Angels have only beaten fourteen of their thirty-six opponents with a winning record this year. Play Milwaukee with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
