World Cup Futures Bets at Knockout Stage

With the knockout stage at World Cup 2026 underway, the outright market has taken shape. The favorites have separated themselves, but there are still a couple of prices that stand out. France deserves to be at the top of the board, while Portugal offers enough value to warrant a shot at a much bigger number. Here's a quick look at two futures bets I'm making at this stage of the tournament.

France to win (+300)

France is the deserved favorite and it's easy to see why. They've looked composed throughout the tournament and have the type of balance that's so important once every match becomes win-or-go-home. There aren't many holes in this squad and they're just as comfortable grinding out a tight match as they are opening things up offensively.

Just as importantly, this is a team that's been through these moments before. They know what it takes to make a deep World Cup run and that experience becomes more valuable with each passing round. While other teams still have questions to answer, France has consistently shown they can handle the pressure that comes with being one of the tournament favorites.

The path won't be easy, but that's the case for everyone left in the field. France has enough quality throughout the lineup to deal with injuries, make adjustments and beat elite competition. At +300, you're not getting a bargain, but you're still getting a fair price on the team I believe has the best chance to lift the trophy.

Portugal to win (+1100)

Portugal is the team I think offers the best value among the remaining contenders. They may not get the same attention as France, Argentina, Spain or Brazil, but they're more than capable of beating any of those teams in a single elimination tournament.

What I like most about Portugal is that they don't rely on one player to carry them - at least not with Cristiano Ronaldo in the twilight of his career, but still producing. They have quality all over the pitch, they're dangerous going forward and they're disciplined enough defensively to stay in matches even when they're not at their best. That's exactly the type of profile I look for when betting an outright winner.

At +1100, you're getting a number that reflects some uncertainty, but I think it's a little too generous. Portugal has the experience to handle the knockout stage and enough attacking talent to create chances against anyone. If they get through the next round, those odds are likely to shrink considerably, making this a good time to buy in.