by Team Del Genio
Monday, Oct 12, 2026The Chicago Bears were a definite topic of long conversations for Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff in the offseason.
The Packers played the Bears three times in their final six games last year, all in December or January. After beating Chicago at home, 28-21, at Lambeau Field on December 7th, they lost the rematch at Soldier Field, 22-16, on December 20th. Yet it was their 31-27 loss against the Bears in Chicago in the wild card round of the NFC playoffs that stings the most for Green Bay. They had a 21-3 lead in that game before giving up 25 points in the fourth quarter to give away that game.
The last time the Packers lost three games in a row to their arch rival Bears was in the 2005-2006 season. They did not cover the point spread in those final two games in Chicago. The last time they did not cover the point spread in three straight games against the Bears was back in the 1997-1999 seasons.
Their rematch against Chicago in Week 5 meant a lot to everyone in Green Bay, and they surely have paid attention to the oddsmakers that have installed them as an underdog despite this game being played at Lambeau Field. The last time the oddsmakers installed them as less than a three-point favorite when hosting Chicago was nineteen games ago in 2006. This game was just the third time since 1992 when the oddsmakers did not install the Packers as a favorite of at least a field goal at home against the Bears.
Green Bay evened their record at 2-2 the previous week with a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay. Since LaFleur took over the team, the Packers had covered the point spread in twenty-one of their previous thirty-five games after winning on the road. It had been a sluggish start to the season for Green Bay. They blew another big lead in their opening game against Minnesota before getting embarrassed at home against Atlanta for a Thursday Night Football game in Week 3. Yet a victory against the Bears would even their record with them at 3-2. The Packers had covered the point spread in thirty-eight of their previous sixty-two games at home. They were 24-14-1 against the spread when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. LaFleur had led Green Bay to twelve victories in their fifteen games against Chicago, and they had covered the point spread in eleven of those games.
Chicago improved their record to 3-1 with a 23-12 victory at home against the New York Jets in their previous game. With Caleb Williams still out with his hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent was head coach Ben Johnson’s starting quarterback and completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards. The Bears ran the ball 54 times for 232 yards to dominate the Jets. Williams remains out, so Bagent would be under center once again. LaFleur had faced a backup quarterback twenty-two times in his head coaching career with the Packers. Green Bay had won nineteen of those games.
A -2 net turnover margin prevented Chicago from pulling away against the Jets, despite outgaining them by 335 yards. After leading the NFL with a +22 net turnover margin last year, the Bears only had a +1 net turnover margin going into this game. If Chicago is not winning the turnover margin, they may not be the same team as they were last year.
The Bears had not given up more than 248 yards in three straight games, yet those were against three teams with struggling offenses: Minnesota, Philadelphia, and the Jets. In their opening game, Carolina gained 478 yards against them. Green Bay gained 419 yards against the Vikings in Week 1, a defense that many observers believe is the best in the league.
The Bears are only 35-49 against the spread in their previous eighty-four games on the road. Of course, most of those games were without Johnson as their head coach, who has turned this franchise in his second season with the team. Yet while Chicago has a great record against most of the league since he took over, they have won and covered the point spread in just three of their eight games against division opponents that know him best.
The oddsmakers installed the Bears as the favorites in four of those games against the NFC North, yet they had only won and covered the point spread in one of those games. Chicago had won twelve of their other fifteen games against non-division opponents with Johnson as their head coach, posting a 12-2-1 against the spread record. The Bears' troubles within their division have been an issue before Johnson arrived. Chicago had covered the point spread in fourteen of their previous forty-three games against their division.
The Packers were our NFC North Underdog of the Month, and they dominated the game in a 31-7 victory. They took an early 14-0 lead by the opening moments of the second quarter, and this time they did not let their opponent pull off a fourth quarter comeback. Jordan Love played his best game of the year by completing 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. They gained 428 yards of offense. They also held Ben Johnson’s offense to only 246 yards. The Green Bay defense completely stifled Bagent, who completed only 12 of 21 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions. Johnson eventually benched Bagent for Case Keenum, yet the veteran completed only 11 of his 19 passes for 108 yards and another interception. Chicago had a -5 net turnover margin. Past success in winning the turnover battle is not predictive of future net turnover rates.
Good luck - TDG.
The Packers played the Bears three times in their final six games last year, all in December or January. After beating Chicago at home, 28-21, at Lambeau Field on December 7th, they lost the rematch at Soldier Field, 22-16, on December 20th. Yet it was their 31-27 loss against the Bears in Chicago in the wild card round of the NFC playoffs that stings the most for Green Bay. They had a 21-3 lead in that game before giving up 25 points in the fourth quarter to give away that game.
The last time the Packers lost three games in a row to their arch rival Bears was in the 2005-2006 season. They did not cover the point spread in those final two games in Chicago. The last time they did not cover the point spread in three straight games against the Bears was back in the 1997-1999 seasons.
Their rematch against Chicago in Week 5 meant a lot to everyone in Green Bay, and they surely have paid attention to the oddsmakers that have installed them as an underdog despite this game being played at Lambeau Field. The last time the oddsmakers installed them as less than a three-point favorite when hosting Chicago was nineteen games ago in 2006. This game was just the third time since 1992 when the oddsmakers did not install the Packers as a favorite of at least a field goal at home against the Bears.
Green Bay evened their record at 2-2 the previous week with a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay. Since LaFleur took over the team, the Packers had covered the point spread in twenty-one of their previous thirty-five games after winning on the road. It had been a sluggish start to the season for Green Bay. They blew another big lead in their opening game against Minnesota before getting embarrassed at home against Atlanta for a Thursday Night Football game in Week 3. Yet a victory against the Bears would even their record with them at 3-2. The Packers had covered the point spread in thirty-eight of their previous sixty-two games at home. They were 24-14-1 against the spread when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. LaFleur had led Green Bay to twelve victories in their fifteen games against Chicago, and they had covered the point spread in eleven of those games.
Chicago improved their record to 3-1 with a 23-12 victory at home against the New York Jets in their previous game. With Caleb Williams still out with his hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent was head coach Ben Johnson’s starting quarterback and completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards. The Bears ran the ball 54 times for 232 yards to dominate the Jets. Williams remains out, so Bagent would be under center once again. LaFleur had faced a backup quarterback twenty-two times in his head coaching career with the Packers. Green Bay had won nineteen of those games.
A -2 net turnover margin prevented Chicago from pulling away against the Jets, despite outgaining them by 335 yards. After leading the NFL with a +22 net turnover margin last year, the Bears only had a +1 net turnover margin going into this game. If Chicago is not winning the turnover margin, they may not be the same team as they were last year.
The Bears had not given up more than 248 yards in three straight games, yet those were against three teams with struggling offenses: Minnesota, Philadelphia, and the Jets. In their opening game, Carolina gained 478 yards against them. Green Bay gained 419 yards against the Vikings in Week 1, a defense that many observers believe is the best in the league.
The Bears are only 35-49 against the spread in their previous eighty-four games on the road. Of course, most of those games were without Johnson as their head coach, who has turned this franchise in his second season with the team. Yet while Chicago has a great record against most of the league since he took over, they have won and covered the point spread in just three of their eight games against division opponents that know him best.
The oddsmakers installed the Bears as the favorites in four of those games against the NFC North, yet they had only won and covered the point spread in one of those games. Chicago had won twelve of their other fifteen games against non-division opponents with Johnson as their head coach, posting a 12-2-1 against the spread record. The Bears' troubles within their division have been an issue before Johnson arrived. Chicago had covered the point spread in fourteen of their previous forty-three games against their division.
The Packers were our NFC North Underdog of the Month, and they dominated the game in a 31-7 victory. They took an early 14-0 lead by the opening moments of the second quarter, and this time they did not let their opponent pull off a fourth quarter comeback. Jordan Love played his best game of the year by completing 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. They gained 428 yards of offense. They also held Ben Johnson’s offense to only 246 yards. The Green Bay defense completely stifled Bagent, who completed only 12 of 21 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions. Johnson eventually benched Bagent for Case Keenum, yet the veteran completed only 11 of his 19 passes for 108 yards and another interception. Chicago had a -5 net turnover margin. Past success in winning the turnover battle is not predictive of future net turnover rates.
Good luck - TDG.
