by Rod Pearson
Friday, Jul 03, 2026
Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 4, 2026
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +217, Dodgers -271; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +220, Dodgers -275; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +220, Dodgers -275; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 43-43 (2nd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 57-31 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-2 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-43 record overall and have a road record of 20-22. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Dodgers on Saturday with the 2nd game still to be played on Friday. The Padres lost the series opener on Thursday. Their offense ranks 29th in the MLB with a .676 OPS. Michael King is their starting pitcher on Friday while Griffin Canning is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-5 with a 7.09 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 3 SO on 5 hits through 4.1 IP against the Chicago Cubs.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-31 record overall and have a home record of 27-14. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Friday. The Dodgers won the 1st game of this series on Thursday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .794 OPS. Shohei Ohtani is their starting pitcher on Friday while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-5 with a 2.67 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings pitched against the San Diego Padres.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have looked great in their games this season with their 57-31 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL West with the best record in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 27-14 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 43-43 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 20-22 road record this year. The Padres are 4-6 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately, getting swept by the Cubs in their last series. They also have one of the worst offenses in MLB while the Dodgers have one of the best, and the Dodgers have been rolling lately too, now 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Dodgers are going with Yamamoto in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-5 with a 2.67 ERA and has been one of their best starters. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him, and the team has had a ton of success with him too, winning 5 of their last 6 games with him starting. The Padres are going with Canning in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 1-5 with a 7.09 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs this year. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme with him and he won't be able to keep this hot Dodgers lineup off the board here. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of this better pitching matchup and continue to roll here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Padres Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 4, 2026 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 7 Padres 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 232-189 (+21.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 109-102 (+12.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 87-87 (+23.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 27-15 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 272-173 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 143-77 (-5.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 245-140 (-4.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 25-15 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Campusano (C) Ten Day IL - Toe. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: B. Treinen (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. W. Smith (C) Ten Day IL - Neck. B. Graterol (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Snell (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. E. Hernandez (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. B. Casparius (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. E. Diaz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. L. Knack (SP) Sixty Day IL - Chest. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Miller (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. E. Phillips (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“It’s pretty tough. But, I don’t think just because it’s happening right now means it’s going to happen forever. We’ll get through this tough stretch and hopefully get our bullpen in a better spot.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s loss against the LA Dodgers in their game on Thursday.
"They were on everything Roki threw. You could see it. We're going to do a little dive and see if he was tipping his pitches. There's a little bit of adjustment you need to make, but you look at some of the pitches -- they weren't good pitches either. You still got to make good pitches." - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Thursday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Ty France (R) 1B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Samad Taylor (R) LF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Andy Pages (R) CF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Teoscar Hernández (R) LF
Dalton Rushing (L) C
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Samad Taylor (.333)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (93)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (17)
RBI: Manny Machado (48)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (20)
Wins: Randy Vásquez (6)
Saves: Mason Miller (21)
ERA: Mason Miller (0.78)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Enrique Hernández (1.000)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (94)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (18)
RBI: Andy Pages (62)
Stolen Bases: Andy Pages (8)
Wins: Justin Wrobleski (10)
Saves: Tanner Scott (11)
ERA: Brock Stewart (1.50)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (11th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
