Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/11/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Marlins +100; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Marlins +100; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Marlins +100; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  58-62 (4th place, NL Central)

Miami Marlins:  60-59 (3rd place, NL East)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  3-7 last 10

Miami Marlins:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-62 record overall and have a road record of 28-32. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .746 OPS. Jared Jones was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Paul Skenes is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 9-10 with a 3.96 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 4 BB with 6 SO on 2 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-59 record overall and have a home record of 36-24. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Ryan Gusto was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Eury Pérez is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-9 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 9 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 60-59 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 36-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 58-62 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 28-32 road record this year. The Pirates haven't looked great lately either, coming off a series loss to the Mets over the weekend and they are now 3-7 in their last 10 games too. The Marlins haven't looked that great lately themselves, but they have still looked better lately with their 5-5 record in their last 10 games and they have some momentum on their side from a series win over the Angels. The Marlins are going with Perez in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 5-9 with a 3.61 ERA and he hasn't been giving up a ton of runs. The team has had a lot of trouble with him lately though, losing 5 games in a row now with him starting, and he did give up 4 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and he will be looking to bounce back at home where the Marlins have looked so much better as a team this season. The Pirates are going with Skenes in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 9-10 with a 3.96 ERA and his team has had a lot of trouble with him too. They have lost 3 games in a row now with him starting and he gave up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him. The Marlins have looked like a different team in their home games this season and their offense has also looked a lot better than the Pirates over the last week. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Pirates Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 5 Pirates 4.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 206-238 (-25.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 92-129 (-19.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 88-73 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 13-6 UNDER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Miami Marlins: 201-242 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 144-184 (+30.5 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 157-154 (+48.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 20-11 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  E. Rodriguez (C) Day To Day - Hip. M. Keller (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm. R. O'Hearn (RF) Ten Day IL - Quad. O. Cruz (CF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. K. Griffin (SS) Sixty Day IL - Finger.

Miami Marlins:  K. Stowers (1B) Day To Day - Hamstring. M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Anytime you're playing 17 in 17 is tough, and we've got to find a way to bounce back. Got the off-day tomorrow and have a big series coming up in Miami.” - Don Kelly after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Sunday. 

“No real update. We’ll send him for some further examination to try to get a better handle on the potential severity of that. But anytime you have to leave the game [limping] on your own power like that, not great. I think we’ll hold out a little bit and see what more information we can get.” - Clayton McCullough on Kyle Stowers after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Sunday. 

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Ronny Simon (S) RF

Bryan Reynolds (S) DH

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) LF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Rafael Flores Jr. (R) 1B

Jared Triolo (R) SS

Henry Davis (R) C

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Griffin Conine (L) DH

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Owen Caissie (L) RF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Nick Gonzales (.306)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (133)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (25)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (74)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (11)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (14)

ERA:  Khristian Curtis (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.318)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (147)

Home Runs:  Heriberto Hernandez (16)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (62)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (27)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (13)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (17)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (2.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)