Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/11/2026

Game Time: 2:20 pm ET, Friday, September 11, 2026

Venue:  Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +163, Cubs -199; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +165, Cubs -200; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +165, Cubs -200; Over/Under:  8 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  73-73 (3rd place, NL Central)

Chicago Cubs:  81-66 (2nd place, NL Central)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  8-2 last 10

Chicago Cubs:  4-6 last 10

The Pirates won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1. They enter this game with a 73-73 record overall and have a road record of 35-39. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Chicago White Sox still to be played on Thursday. The Pirates won the series opener on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Jared Jones is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Braxton Ashcraft is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 9 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Cubs are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with an 81-66 record overall and have a home record of 41-31. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .768 OPS. Kevin Gausman was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Shota Imanaga is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-10 with a 3.91 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 73-73 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They haven't been a good road team though with their 35-39 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Cubs have looked really good in their games this season with their 81-66 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 41-31 home record this season. The Cubs have one of the best offenses in MLB, but their pitching staff has been a disaster all season and lately they haven't looked great either. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games while the pirates have been rolling lately, now 8-2 in their last 10 games, and the pirates also have one of the best offenses in the league. Ashcraft is on the mound for the pirates in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA and he has been one of their best starters all year. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the team has still been having a ton of success with him lately, winning 4 of their last 5 games with him starting. The Cubs are going with Imanaga in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. he is 9-10 with a 3.91 ERA, but he has also been really up and down this year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and the team has won 5 of their last 6 games with him starting, but that hasn't been the case for most of the year and the Pirates have an offense that can put up runs. The Pirates bullpen has also looked a lot better lately, so look for the Pirates to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game. 

Pirates Cubs Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 11, 2026 (2:20 pm ET start time) is Pirates 5 Cubs 3.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 221-249 (-21.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 99-136 (-19.3 units) on the moneyline in road games. 67-81 (-13.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 12-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start.

Chicago Cubs: 261-218 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 140-99 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 202-158 (+22.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 27-18 OVER against division opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  I. Mattson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. K. Yates (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. E. Rodriguez (C) Sixty Day IL - Hip. M. Keller (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm. R. O'Hearn (RF) Ten Day IL - Quad.

Chicago Cubs:  P. Maton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. E. Cabrera (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Blister. D. Swanson (SS) Ten Day IL - Side. B. Brown (RP) Sixty Day IL - Neck. G. Hollowell (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. R. Martin (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. P. Hodge (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Horton (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. H. Harvey (RP) Sixty Day IL - Tricep. J. Steele (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Austin (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Miller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“That was a huge play. That was - I think it was definitely fair if he doesn't catch it, and that's multiple runs. Probably play of the game right there.” - Don Kelly after his team’s win against the White Sox in their game on Wednesday.

“Look, again, our job is to win games. That’s what we can control. That’s what we can do. [The Wild Card race] doesn’t affect any decisions. The decisions are happening during the game here. What’s going on around the league doesn’t help us. Do we know the standings? I know the standings, yeah.” - Craig Counsell after his team’s loss against the Brewers in their game on Wednesday. 

Konnor Griffin (R) SS

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Nick Gonzales (R) DH

Oneil Cruz (L) CF

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Spencer Horwitz (L) 1B

Rafael Flores Jr. (R) C

Jacob Gonzalez (L) 3B

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

Seiya Suzuki (R) RF

Michael Busch (L) 1B

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Ian Happ (S) DH

Nico Hoerner (R) SS

Pedro Ramírez (S) 2B

Michael Conforto (L) LF

Carson Kelly (R) C

Batting Average:  Nick Gonzales (.305)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (155)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (29)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (83)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (22)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (14)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (14)

ERA:  Noah Murdock (0.00)

Batting Average:  Gabriel Arias (.429)

Hits:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (159)

Home Runs:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (41)

RBI:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (97)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (36)

Wins:  Shota Imanaga (9)

Saves:  Jacob Webb (9)

ERA:  Ty Blach (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (3rd season)