Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  57-49 (2nd place, NL East)

Miami Marlins:  52-54 (4th place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  4-6 last 10

Miami Marlins:  0-10 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-49 record overall and have a road record of 29-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Zack Wheeler is their starting pitcher on Monday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 5 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 7 hits through 5.1 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-54 record overall and have a home record of 31-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .729 OPS. Tyler Phillips is their starting pitcher on Monday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers, and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts on 9 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Houston Astros.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 52-54 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 31-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked good in their games this season with their 57-49 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have been a good road team too with their 29-22 road record this year. The Marlins have looked terrible lately as they are 0-10 in their last 10 games and have been in a huge slump after being one of the hottest teams in the league in June. The Phillies haven't looked great themselves though, now 4-6 in their last 10 games, and this is a good situation for the Marlins to bounce back at home. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA and he has been a reliable starter for them all year. He did give up 5 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for him for a lot of the season. The Phillies are going with Nola in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA and has been one of their weakest links in the rotation. He is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him all year, and the team has had a lot of trouble with him too, losing 5 games in a row now with him starting. The Marlins are going to be desperate to bounce back at home where they have looked a lot better this season, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup with one of their more reliable starters. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Phillies Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 7 Phillies 4.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 251-188 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 175-114 (+28.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 123-68 (+20.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 28-11 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125.

Miami Marlins: 99-117 (-11.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 83-96 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 100-133 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 20-11 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Philadelphia Phillies:  T. Banks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. R. Marchan (C) Ten Day IL - Knee. B. Keller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stubbs (C) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Trivino III (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Miami Marlins:  M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“At this point in the year, you really can't take anybody lightly. Games are all important. They're important all year long, but we talk about the pennant race and things like that -- it’s started. One bad week puts you in danger.” - Don Mattingly after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Sunday. 

“Look, there's no hiding from it. It's what it is. Does anybody feel good? Certainly not. But to come in here each day and cry about it, make excuses? I don't know what that's going to do. I think we have a very prideful group that is certainly upset, frustrated, angry about how things are going. But we're the only ones that can change that. So I think that's where [to] turn it around and come back tomorrow, it's going to be staring at us again. We've just got to meet this head-on and continue to go, because there's really no other choice.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Sunday. 

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) RF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Liam Hicks (L) DH

Griffin Conine (L) RF

Esteury Ruiz (R) CF

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Joe Mack (L) C

Batting Average:  Bryan De La Cruz (.714)

Hits:  Brandon Marsh (106)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (33)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (62)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (17)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (13)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (24)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.328)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (133)

Home Runs:  Liam Hicks (14)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (60)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (24)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (1.69)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)