Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/11/2026

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Friday, September 11, 2026

Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +157, Braves -191; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +160, Braves -190; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +155, Braves -190; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  82-65 (2nd place, NL East)

Atlanta Braves:  86-61 (1st place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

Atlanta Braves:  4-6 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 82-65 record overall and have a road record of 41-31. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Braves on Friday. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .713 OPS. Zack Wheeler was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-10 with a 4.76 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 4 hits through 7 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 86-61 record overall and have a home record of 49-26. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .715 OPS. Martín Pérez was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Chris Sale is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 14-9 with a 2.10 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked great in their games this season with their 86-61 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 49-26 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked really good in their games this season with their 82-65 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have been a good road team too with their 41-31 road record this year. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they just lost a series to the Astros and are starting to cool off. The Braves are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and just lost their last series to the Rays, but they avoided the sweep and will be looking to play better in this pivotal series, looking like a completely different team in home games this year. The Braves are going with Sale in this one and he has looked great all season. he is 14-9 with a 2.10 ERA and he has been their ace. He is coming off another great start giving up 2 earned runs which has been a common theme for him all year and the team has been having a ton of success with him too, winning 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Phillies are going with Nola in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-10 with a 4.76 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and has looked a lot better lately, but that hasn't been a common theme for him most of the year and the team has still lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Braves are going to bring their best effort at home to make that lead in the NL East even bigger, so look for the Braves to take advantage of this pitching matchup at home where they have looked so much better this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game. 

Phillies Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 11, 2026 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Braves 4 Phillies 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 276-203 (+12 units) on the moneyline in all games. 162-115 (+12.9 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 59-47 (+5.8 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 62-36 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Atlanta Braves: 250-222 (-42.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 133-103 (-19 units) on the moneyline in home games. 190-144 (-32.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 28-14 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Philadelphia Phillies:  F. Reyes (LF) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. C. Kilian (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. T. Banks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Keller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Atlanta Braves:  B. Elder (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Suarez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Strider (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Wentz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Jimenez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Schwellenbach (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Sometimes you need a base hit, sometimes you need that. You don’t know where it’s going to come. But I think the combination overall has been good. Nobody has really proved me any different.” - Don Mattingly after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Wednesday. 

“There’s been some extremes this year with the highs and lows offensively. We’ve got to ride it out and figure it out.” - Walt Weiss after his team’s loss against the Rays in their game on Wednesday. 

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Alec Bohm (R) 1B

Bryson Stott (L) 3B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

Rafael Marchán (S) C

Drake Baldwin (L) C

Ronald Acuña Jr. (R) RF

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Mauricio Dubón (R) 2B

Dominic Smith (L) DH

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Brewer Hicklen (R) LF

Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS

Batting Average:  Bryan De La Cruz (.339)

Hits:  Trea Turner (141)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (44)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (92)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (24)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (17)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (30)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Jair Camargo (.500)

Hits:  Michael Harris (152)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (37)

RBI:  Matt Olson (81)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuña (20)

Wins:  Chris Sale (14)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (31)

ERA:  Hunter Stratton (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

Atlanta Braves: Walt Weiss (1st season)