NFL Preseason Betting Primer

Betting the NFL preseason isn't for everyone. There are plenty of bettors who won't touch it because of the uncertainty, but I've always felt that's exactly where the value comes from. Sportsbooks are dealing with the same lack of information we are, and if you're willing to do a little digging, there are opportunities every week.

The biggest mistake I see casual bettors make is treating these games like regular-season games. They quite clearly aren't. Star power doesn't mean much when the starting quarterback is only playing one series or not playing at all. You're betting coaching philosophy, quarterback depth and motivation a lot more than you're betting talent.

One glaringly obvious thing I always look at is who's under center once the starters leave the game. That's often where these games are won and lost. It might go without saying but if one team has a couple of capable backup quarterbacks and the other is scraping the bottom of the depth chart by halftime, that's something I want to know before I make a bet. A lot of these games come down to which offense can actually move the football in the second half.

Coaching tendencies are another aspect you should never ignore. Some coaches genuinely want to win preseason games while others couldn't care less about the final score. Every year there are coaches who consistently have their teams ready to play in August, and there are others who are simply trying to get through the game healthy. Those tendencies aren't automatic betting systems, but they're certainly worth factoring into the handicap. Is it already factored into the lines? Often, yes. However, there are emerging trends that can go over-looked for extended periods before the market catches up. 

I'm also paying attention to roster situations. Teams with quarterback battles or several jobs still up for grabs usually play with a little more urgency. Those players are trying to make an NFL roster, and it often shows, especially late in games when the stars are already on the sidelines.

One trend that's been talked about a lot over the years is betting unders in the preseason. There have definitely been stretches where they've been profitable, especially early in August when offenses are keeping things simple and quarterbacks haven't had much work together. That said, the market has caught up and we've seen much higher posted totals in recent years. If both teams have quality backup quarterbacks or coaches willing to air it out, trends can be proven worthless pretty quickly. Every game has to stand on its own.

The market in general has gotten a lot sharper than it used to be. Ten years ago there were coaching angles that seemed to cash every August. Sportsbooks have adjusted and bettors have caught on, so those easy opportunities don't come around as often. That's why I spend more time looking at expected playing time and quarterback rotations than historical preseason records.

If there's one piece of advice I'd give for betting the preseason, it's to be patient. Don't feel like you have to bet every game. Information comes out throughout the week, and sometimes even a few hours before kickoff. Knowing which quarterbacks are expected to play three quarters instead of one - and more importantly analyzing what it means to the gameplan - can be the difference between making a good bet and making a bad one.

The preseason isn't about finding a magic trend that's going to cash every ticket. It's about putting together all the information you can find and figuring out whether the line accurately reflects what's likely to happen. If you can do that consistently, you'll usually find a few opportunities before the regular season even begins.

I went a profitable 9-5-1 (+$3.5K for $1K bettors) in the 2025 NFL preseason and I'd love to have you on board in 2026. Be on the lookout for my preseason winners this August!