by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 30, 2026
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, November 1, 2026
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots -7, Dolphins +7; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots -7, Dolphins +7; Over/Under: 43 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots -7, Dolphins +7; Over/Under: 43 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 4-3 (2nd place, AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 1-5 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Chicago Bears 30-24.
Miami Dolphins: won their last game on the road against the New York Jets 28-25.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 4-3 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 30-24. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 24/31 passes for 321 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Drake Maye led the team in rushing yards with 26 and 1 TD. Rhamondre Stevenson led the receivers with 93 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Christian Elliss led the defense in that game with 13 solo tackles while Marcus Jones, Christian Barmore, and Leonard Taylor III each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-5 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 28-25. Malik Willis was the starting QB and he completed 14/21 passes for 208 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ollie Gordon II led the team in rushing yards with 103 and 1 TD. Greg Dulcich led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles while Chop Robinson and Malik Herring each led the defense in sacks with 1. Michael Taaffe came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked good in their games this season with their 4-3 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 1-3 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-5 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the AFC East. They haven't looked good on their home field either with their 0-2 home record this season. The Dolphins have looked like the worst team in the NFL this season and they don't have a ton of talent on their roster either. They are coming off a 28-25 road win over the Jets in their last one and finally got their 1st win of the season, but that isn't going to translate to more success. They beat up on a Jets team that looks like they are going to have another year of disappointment, but now they are facing a team that was in the Super Bowl just a few months ago. The Patriots are coming off a 30-24 loss to the Bears in their last one and they put up a good fight, but they were always trailing in that one. They will be looking to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the NFL though and they played the Bears on Thursday Night Football, so they have had a few extra days to prepare. The Dolphins are going to revert right back to the team that they have been all season after that big win last week while the Patriots are angry and looking to take out those frustrations. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 1, 2026 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Patriots 31 Dolphins 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8-4 ATS versus division opponents. 12-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 9-5 OVER versus division opponents. 15-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record.
Miami Dolphins: 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival. 1-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 6-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 10-3 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 10-3 OVER versus division opponents.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: T. Henderson (RB) Injured - Illness. K. Byard III (S) Injured - Chest. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Foot. D. Jones (DL) Injured - Back. C. Davis III (CB) Injured - Neck. A. Brown (WR) Injured - Ankle. B. Brown (C) Injured - Knee. D. Jones (LB) Injured - Shoulder. C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Chest. D. Maye (QB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Bryant (OT) Injured - Ankle. K. Prunty (CB) Injured - Hamstring. C. Canada (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Miami Dolphins: M. Willis (QB) Injured - Groin. R. Beal Jr. (DL) Injured - Hamstring. J. Brents (CB) Injured - Neck. G. Dulcich (TE) Injured - Ankle. R. Taylor (CB) Injured - Quad. J. Wayne (WR) Injured - Knee. T. Addington (LS) Injured - Shoulder. J. Wright (RB) Injured - Foot. M. Washington (WR) Injured - Knee. D. Trader Jr. (S) Injured - Shoulder. K. Proctor (OG) Injured - Concussion. W. Kacmarek (TE) Injured - Hamstring. M. Taaffe (S) Injured - Neck.
Notable Quotes
“He gave us a chance. He competed and I know he’d like to have that throw back to Eli, but I thought he really competed. Whether that was running around and scrambling or finding good places to go with the football. He gave us a chance. ... I’m glad he’s ours.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s loss against the Bears in their last game.
“They deserve it. You could feel a lot come out of it. I'm very happy for the players. They did a great job.” - Jeff Hafley after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Chism III, Efton
WR Brown, A.J.
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Miami Dolphins
WR Bell, Chris
WR Douglas, Caleb
WR Washington, Malik
TE Dulcich, Greg
QB Willis, Malik
RB Gordon II, Ollie
FB Herman, DJ
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (1,784)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (285)
Receiving: Hunter Henry (296)
Touchdowns: Romeo Doubs (3)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Malik Willis (1,057)
Rushing: Ollie Gordon II (339)
Receiving: Malik Washington (289)
Touchdowns: Ollie Gordon II (4)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)
Miami Dolphins: Jeff Hafley (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
