by Kyle Hunter
Monday, Jul 27, 2026The Mountain West looks a lot different this year. North Dakota State and Northern Illinois have joined the conference for football only.
Who left the Mountain West? Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State left the conference.
Boise State has been the top team in the league, so the Broncos leaving gives an opportunity for the other teams to battle for the top spot.
North Dakota State has been a perennial power at the FCS level. How will that transfer over to the FBS level in the Mountain West? That’s a huge question as we start off this season. I personally think the oddsmakers overvalued North Dakota State some initially. I took under 9.5 wins for them, and I would even lean under 8.5 at a big plus money price.
The co-favorites for the Mountain West title are UNLV and New Mexico. UNLV has all sorts of offensive talent. Jet Thomas is a superstar at running back, and Jackson Arnold transferred in to lead the team at quarterback. Can UNLV get some stop though? The Rebels allowed 5.2 yards per carry last season. They should improve, but there are enough questions here that I wouldn’t want to bet UNLV at +275 or so that is currently available.
Northern Illinois will be a bottom feeder in the Mountain West, and I’ll look for spots to bet against them in the season ahead. San Jose State lost a ton on offense, and I think the Spartans will be down quite a bit as well.
Where do we look for value? I see two options for futures value here. First, the New Mexico Lobos which can be found at as much as +350 to win the Mountain West. Jason Eck is an excellent coach, and the Lobos have the best defense and special teams in the league. If they get slightly better quarterback play, they are going to be really tough to beat. New Mexico also hosts UNLV and North Dakota State.
The other team I’m keeping my eye on is Air Force. Troy Calhoun’s team had a very down season last year, but I think they could improve a lot this season. Air Force finally has 8 returning starters on defense, and Blake Fetcher is a star at linebacker. The Falcons were weak defensively last year, but the coaching staff is praising this crew a lot in the offseason and expects better performance. Liam Czarka is the best quarterback in the Mountain West too. Czarka was hurt part of last season, but when he was healthy he showed how dangerous he can be. Air Force at 6/1 or better is a good value play also.
