Mississippi State Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/17/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 17, 2026

Venue:  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +12.5, LSU -12.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +12.5, LSU -12.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +12.5, LSU -12.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-1 (2-1) (4th place, SEC)

LSU Tigers:  4-2 (1-2) (11th place, SEC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Tom Stryker is on a HOT STREAK in college football on a 10-2 CFB RUN for +$7,770 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide 56-23.

LSU Tigers:  lost their last game on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats 35-34 in overtime. 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Alabama 56-23. Kamario Taylor was the starting QB and he completed 19/34 passes for 258 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Kolin Wilson led the team in rushing yards with 27. Anthony Evans III led the receivers with 166 receiving yards on 12 receptions and 2 TDs. Fatt Forrest, Amaree Williams, and Amarien Jefferson each led the defense in that game with 6 tackles while Dealyn Evans, Kalvin Dinkins, and Will Whitson each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

LSU is entering this game with a 4-2 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Kentucky 35-34 in OT. Sam Leavitt was the starting QB and he completed 25/34 passes for 275 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Dilin Jones led the team in rushing yards with 56. Dilin Jones led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 7 receptions. TJ Dottery led the defense in that game with 12 tackles while Malik Blocton led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have LSU listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. LSU has looked good in their games this season with their 4-2 record overall, but their 1-2 conference record has them in the bottom half of the SEC. They have looked great on their home field though with their 4-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 2-1 conference record which has them in the top half of the SEC. They have been a good road team too with their 2-0 road record this year. Mississippi State has had a great start to the year and they look like they are going to turn things around with their new QB who has been one of the best in the nation, but this is still one of the worst programs in the SEC and they showed in their last game that they can't compete with the big boys. They are coming out of their bye week, but they lost their last game at home to Alabama 56-23 and didn't even belong on the same field. LSU is also coming off a loss in their last one, losing to Kentucky 35-34, but Kentucky has been turning things around in this 1st year with a new head coach. Both of LSU's losses also came on the road this season, but they have looked like a completely different team at home with a ton of blow out wins. Lane Kiffin is very familiar with this program from his days at Ole Miss too and he has owned Mississippi State in recent years. Look for LSU to bounce back in a big way at home and beat up on a Mississippi State team that is starting to come back down to Earth. The best way to place a bet here is on LSU to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State LSU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is LSU 42 Mississippi State 24.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Mississippi State Bulldogs LSU Tigers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9-3 ATS in road lined games. 5-1 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 5-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less. 8-4 UNDER in road lined games. 4-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less. 

LSU Tigers: 11-21 ATS in all lined games. 2-9 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 2-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 19-10 UNDER against FBS division opponents. 8-4 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  J. Freeman (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Williams (WR) Out - Leg. T. Williams (DL) Out - Leg. B. Mitchell (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

LSU Tigers:  R. Guillory Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Green (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Wright III (WR) Out - Undisclosed. D. Spears (S) Out - Knee.

“It’s pretty obvious that he wasn’t able to do anything with his legs. So, him not being able to do some of those things, it changes it. It makes it harder.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s loss against Alabama in their last game. 

“It came down to a one-play game, but there were a lot of plays before that to close the game out. We had the ball ahead, and turned it over. Disappointing all three phases. If you don't execute, you don't execute. On the punt return (a 55-yard touchdown by Brock Coffman), we had a player there tackling him and he didn't tackle him. If you don't execute, you get exposed against a good team.” - Lane Kiffin after his team’s loss against Kentucky in their last game. 

WR Magee, Sanfrisco

WR Ragins, Zion

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE West, Sam

QB Taylor, Kamario

RB Bothwell, Fluff

WR Harris, Jackson

WR Wilson III, Eugene

WR Watkins Jr., Winston

TE Green, Trey'Dez

QB Leavitt, Sam

RB Jones, Dilin

Passing: Kamario Taylor (1,450)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (403)

Receiving: Anthony Evans III (574)

Touchdowns: Sanfrisco Magee (5)

Passing: Sam Leavitt (1,496)

Rushing: Dilin Jones (482)

Receiving: Winston Watkins Jr. (416)

Touchdowns: Sam Leavitt (7)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (3rd season)

LSU Tigers: Lane Kiffin (1st season)