Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/03/2026

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 3, 2026

Venue:  Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida -4.5, Mizzou +4.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida -4.5, Mizzou +4.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida -5, Mizzou +5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Florida Gators:  4-0 (2-0) (1st place, SEC)

Missouri Tigers:  3-1 (0-1) (10th place, SEC)

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Florida Gators:  won their last game at home against the Mississippi Rebels 52-28.

Missouri Tigers:  lost their last game on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs 31-24.

Florida is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Ole Miss 52-28. Aaron Philo was the starting QB and he completed 16/23 passes for 196 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 142 and 3 TDs. Eric Singleton Jr. led the receivers with 38 receiving yards on 1 reception. Myles Graham led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Jayden Woods led the defense in sacks with 1. DJ Coleman came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Missouri is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Mississippi State 31-24. Austin Simmons was the starting QB and he completed 23/39 passes for 295 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jamal Roberts led the team in rushing yards with 95. Cayden Lee led the receivers with 156 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 2 TDs. Robert Woodyard Jr. led the defense in that game with 14 tackles while Daeden Hopkins led the defense in sacks with 3.5. Trajen Greco came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Florida listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Missouri has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them right near the bottom of the SEC. They have looked a lot better on their home field though with their 2-0 home record this season. Missouri is coming off a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State in their last one and their defense has been an issue this season. The offense has looked good with Austin Simmons having a good year, but the defense made a bad Kansas offense look great and they couldn't keep Mississippi State off the board last week. Mississippi State has improved a lot this season, but this is still one of the worst programs in the SEC and now they are facing a waking giant in Florida. Florida has looked great in their 1st year with Jon Sumrall as the head coach and they have had one of the best offenses in the nation with the number of points they have been putting up. They already went into Auburn and dropped 44 points on a really good defense, now they are coming off a 52-28 win over Ole Miss who was ranked inside the top 5. That wasn't a great situation for Ole Miss, but they were still in that game for a while until Florida broke it open in the 2nd half and ran away with that offense. The defense hasn't looked great as they do give up a lot of points, but they haven't needed to be great with this offense, doing just enough to win games. Missouri couldn't keep up with an improved Mississippi State offense last week and they are going to have no shot keeping up with this Florida offense that might just be one of the best in the nation. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida Missouri Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Florida 45 Missouri 34.

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Florida Gators: 9-4 ATS as a favorite. 7-2 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 6-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 8-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 6-3 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 5-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Missouri Tigers: 3-6 ATS as an underdog. 1-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 3-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 7-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 6-3 UNDER vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

Florida Gators:  V. Brown III (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Singleton Jr. (WR) Probable - Ankle. E. Chieca (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Groce (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Jimenez (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

Missouri Tigers:  G. Hoffman (TE) Out - Undisclosed. J. Brady (WR) Out - Undisclosed. C. Green (OG) Out - Undisclosed. A. Hardy (RB) Out - Leg.

“It's not asleep, but it ain't fully awake yet. It's being kind of stirred up a little bit. We’re going to get there. It’s coming. I didn't come here for us to be average.” - Jon Sumrall after his team’s win against Ole Miss in their last game. 

“It’s life in the SEC. That game on the road is going to be challenging. You just have to fight and find a way to win.” - Eli Drinkwitz after his team’s loss against Mississippi State in their last game. 

WR Wilson, Dallas

WR Singleton Jr., Eric

WR Brown III, Vernell

TE Jackson, Amir

QB Philo, Aaron

RB Baugh, Jadan

WR Montgomery, Naeshaun

WR Olugbode, Donovan

WR Lee, Cayden

TE Norfleet, Brett

QB Simmons, Austin

RB Roberts, Jamal

Passing: Aaron Philo (917)

Rushing: Jadan Baugh (600)

Receiving: Vernell Brown III (271)

Touchdowns: Jadan Baugh (11)

Passing: Austin Simmons (947)

Rushing: Jamal Roberts (395)

Receiving: Cayden Lee (412)

Touchdowns: Donovan Olugbode (5)

Coaches:

Florida Gators: Jon Sumrall (1st season)

Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (7th season)