by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 06, 2026
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 11, 2026
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bears -3, Packers +3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bears -3, Packers +3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bears -3, Packers +3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
Chicago Bears: 3-1 (2nd place, NFC North)
Green Bay Packers: 2-2 (4th place, NFC North)
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Recent Form
Chicago Bears: won their last game at home against the New York Jets 23-12.
Green Bay Packers: won their last game on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-14.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Preview and Analysis
The Bears are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 23-12. Tyson Bagent was the starting QB and he completed 25/34 passes for 268 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kyle Monangai led the team in rushing yards with 146 and 2 TDs. Rome Odunze led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Dillon Thieneman led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while Devin Bush, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Austin Booker each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Packers are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-14. Jordan Love was the starting QB and he completed 22/30 passes for 197 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kaleb Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 42. Christian Watson led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Edgerrin Cooper led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles while Edgerrin Cooper, Evan Williams, and Xavier McKinney each led the defense in sacks with 1. Edgerrin Cooper and Evan Williams each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Bears vs Packers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bears listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bears have looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right near the top of the NFC North. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Packers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC North. They haven't looked great on their home field either with their 0-1 home record this season. The Packers are coming off a 17-14 win over the Buccaneers in their last one and that was a much needed win after getting embarrassed by the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. They barely escaped Tampa with that win against a banged up team with their backup QB and the Packers just haven't looked good at all. They have been dealing with a ton of injuries themselves and it has led to Love having a lot of trouble getting the ball out. They don't have much of a rushing attack either which has been another big issue for this offense. The Bears have looked great though and they are coming off a 23-12 win over the Jets in their last one. They have won 2 games in a row now with their starting QB out and the defense has also looked a lot better than expected this season. Even without Caleb Williams, they still have a ton of talent on offense with some solid backup QB's and they have a great rushing attack that can carry this offense too. The Bears have a ton of momentum on their side right now while the Packers are still searching for their identity this season, so look for the Bears to take advantage of that in this pivotal divisional game on the road. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bears to cover the spread in this game.
Bears Packers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 11, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bears 24 Packers 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Chicago Bears: 23-15 ATS in all games. 10-4 ATS as a favorite. 14-2 ATS after playing a game at home. 7-2 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 9-5 UNDER as a favorite. 7-3 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.
Green Bay Packers: 15-22 ATS in all games. 4-8 ATS as an underdog. 10-16 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 2-7 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 5-0 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 8-4 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Key Injuries
Chicago Bears: G. Jarrett (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. K. Monangai (RB) Injured - Thumb. D. Swift (RB) Injured - Hip. J. Thuney (OG) Injured - Pectoral. C. Williams (QB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Wright (OG) Injured - Ankle. K. Elliott (LB) Injured - Quad. J. Jackson (OG) Injured - Ankle. C. Lewis (CB) Injured - Hip. N. Sewell (LB) Injured - Achilles. S. Turner (DL) Injured - Knee. K. Gordon (CB) Injured - Calf.
Green Bay Packers: A. Banks (OG) Injured - Toe. A. Belton (OT) Injured - Knee. C. Brooks (RB) Injured - Ankle. J. Burton (OG) Injured - Back. A. Campbell (DL) Injured - Ankle. B. Cisse (CB) Injured - Neck. J. Monk (OG) Injured - Quadricep. L. Van Ness (DL) Injured - Shoulder. S. Williams (WR) Injured - Ankle. D. Wyatt (DL) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“I thought those guys all stood out. It was another one of those days where it’s hard to single out any particular guy. I just thought everyone played really good football on that side.” - Ben Johnson after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
“There were some positive things but we’re never going to be satisfied with scoring 17 points in a game. That’s just not to our standard and we have to find ways when we’re in the red area to convert. We can’t be turning the ball over. We can’t have penalties. That is a stingy defense. You have to give them a lot of credit. But we also have to clean up a lot of stuff. It’s gotta get fixed and it’s gotta get fixed now.” - Matt LaFleur after his team’s win against the Buccaneers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Chicago Bears
WR Odunze, Rome
WR Burden III, Luther
WR Raymond, Kalif
TE Loveland, Colston
QB Bagent, Tyson
RB Swift, D'Andre
Green Bay Packers
WR Watson, Christian
WR Golden, Matthew
WR Moore, Skyy
TE Kraft, Tucker
QB Love, Jordan
RB Lloyd, MarShawn
Statistical Leaders
Chicago Bears
Passing: Caleb Williams (407)
Rushing: Kyle Monangai (324)
Receiving: Rome Odunze (233)
Touchdowns: D'Andre Swift (3)
Green Bay Packers
Passing: Jordan Love (1,041)
Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (81)
Receiving: Christian Watson (331)
Touchdowns: Christian Watson (4)
Coaches:
Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson (2nd season)
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
