by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 19, 2026
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 24, 2026
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Watch: CW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Cal +19.5, SMU -19.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Cal +19.5, SMU -19.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Cal +19, SMU -19; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Season Record
California Golden Bears: 3-4 (2-2) (8th place, ACC)
SMU Mustangs: 5-1 (3-1) (3rd place, ACC)
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Recent Form
California Golden Bears: lost their last game at home against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 41-7.
SMU Mustangs: won their last game at home against the Virginia Cavaliers 23-13.
California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Preview and Analysis
California is entering this game with a 3-4 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their conference games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Wake Forest 41-7. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was the starting QB and he completed 15/18 passes for 110 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Ashten Emory led the team in rushing yards with 56. Chase Hendricks led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Isaiah Crosby led the defense in that game with 6 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
SMU is entering this game with a 5-1 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Virginia 23-13. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 23/36 passes for 246 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kendrick Raphael led the team in rushing yards with 124. Yannick Smith led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Alexander Kilgore led the defense in that game with 10 tackles while Brandon Booker led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
California vs SMU Prediction
The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 19.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked really good in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall and their 3-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They have looked great on their home field too with their 4-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, California hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 3-4 record overall and their 2-2 conference record which has them right in the middle of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team either with their 1-1 road record this year. California has been really up and down this season and it hasn't helped that their starting QB has been dealing with injuries. Even when JKS has played though, he hasn't looked great in their games. They are coming off another bad loss to Wake Forest in their last one and they weren't even competitive at home in that 41-7 loss. Now they are traveling for this early game against another ranked team and SMU has been quietly staying near the top of the ACC. They do have 1 loss which was on the road against Louisville, but Louisville hasn't been a bad team this year. SMU is coming off a 23-13 win over Virginia in their last one and that defense has looked a lot better lately for SMU. California has a lot of issues on offense, so SMU's defense will continue getting better in this game and SMU also has a really good offense that can put up a ton of points against a bad defense like Cal. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game.
California SMU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is SMU 42 California 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
California Golden Bears: 13-20 ATS in all lined games. 1-4 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 3-7 ATS off a home blowout loss by 28 points or more. 6-0 UNDER after allowing 37 points or more last game. 10-5 UNDER after playing a game at home.
SMU Mustangs: 10-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 5-1 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 8-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 16-10 UNDER as a favorite. 14-7 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Key Injuries
California Golden Bears: A. Emory (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Perry-Smith (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Strong (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Perry (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Vargas (RB) Out - Leg. R. Walker (TE) Out - Undisclosed. C. Boscia (WR) Out - Undisclosed. A. Mohammed (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Grayes (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.
SMU Mustangs: M. Uter (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Reed (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Reed (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Green (RB) Out - Hand. I. Singleton IV (DL) Out - Undisclosed. L. Rhodes (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“They did a nice job putting their offense in a great position versus the calls we were in. They exposed us there, out-coached us there.” - Tosh Lupoi after his team’s loss against Wake Forest in their last game.
“I think offensively it was a unique, kind of frustrating deal because we didn’t finish enough drives. We moved the ball a lot better this week. We ran it well. We had good balance.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s win against UVA in their last game.
Starting Lineups
California Golden Bears
WR Strong, Ian
WR Hendricks, Chase
WR Perry, Cooper
TE Mini, Mason
QB Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe
RB Mohammed, Adam
SMU Mustangs
WR Cooper, Jalen
WR Smith, Yannick
WR Knight, Yamir
TE Pittman Jr., Randy
QB Jennings, Kevin
RB Raphael, Kendrick
Statistical Leaders
California Golden Bears
Passing: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (1,290)
Rushing: Adam Mohammed (336)
Receiving: Ian Strong (415)
Touchdowns: Adam Mohammed (4)
SMU Mustangs
Passing: Kevin Jennings (1,834)
Rushing: Kendrick Raphael (542)
Receiving: Yamir Knight (418)
Touchdowns: Kendrick Raphael (6)
Coaches:
California Golden Bears: Tosh Lupoi (1st season)
SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
