Big XII Remaining Title Game and CFP Paths

The Big XII grabbed positive headlines last week rising in national prominence but two of its top teams were upset this week. Utah is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big XII while four teams have one loss vying for a Big XII Championship game spot and the market is rather spread out in what could be an interesting race in the coming weeks. Here is a look at the remaining games for each of the teams with a realistic chance to get to the title game, and possibly the CFP as well. 

Utah 4-0 (Kalshi 34% to Win Big XII – 59% to make title game)

In the spotlight last week Utah delivered a win over Houston to reach 7-0 overall and 4-0 in Big XII play. The Utes have been in close games late in each of the past three games however as this hasn’t been a dominant squad. Utah plays BYU in two weeks but upcoming road games at Cincinnati, at Arizona, and at TCU aren’t going to be easy games before a short-week finale hosting West Virginia in late November. Given close calls in recent games, Utah losing at least once seems likely and twice is very possible as things could really open up in the conference race. 

BYU 3-1 (Kalshi 19% to Win Big XII – 56% to make title game)

The big win over Notre Dame didn’t help BYU in the Big XII race and may have contributed to the hangover loss at UCF in an overtime finish with some bizarre moments. BYU still must play at Utah in two weeks among five remaining Big XII games as finishing better than 7-2 seems somewhat unlikely as the Cougars look to return to the Big XII title game after a poor showing last December against Texas Tech. BYU does have a tiebreaker over Arizona which could come into play.  

Texas Tech 3-1 (Kalshi 14% to Win Big XII – 42% to make title game)

Losing at Cincinnati wasn’t the hurdle on the schedule most expected for Texas Tech. This week’s game is back in Lubbock vs. Arizona and that result looms large in the conference picture. The Red Raiders also will travel to Stillwater in November for a difficult road test. Texas Tech has a win over Houston already, but there won’t be much margin for error for a team many had expected to complete a 12-0 regular season. 

Oklahoma State 3-1 (Kalshi 11% to Win Big XII – 9% to make title game)

Oklahoma State has three of five remaining games on the road but the expected toughest game with Texas Tech is not one of those three games. The Cowboys put up 57 points to pull away from Colorado last week and have now scored 41 or more points in all three Big XII wins. Not playing BYU, Utah, or Arizona will keep Oklahoma State in the conference race but the loss to Houston is likely to be a critical tiebreaker that will make it difficult for the Cowboys to finish in the top two. Current two-loss teams UCF and Kansas have better market odds to make the Big XII title game. 

Arizona 3-1 (Kalshi 10% to Win Big XII – 27% to make title game)

Arizona lost at BYU in September but has now won five straight games including three convincing Big XII wins in a row. Arizona has looked the part of a contender lately but the schedule ahead is difficult, playing at Texas Tech, hosting TCU, and then hosting Utah in the next three games. Arizona has an opportunity to pick up big wins but the task to be one of the top two teams in the Big XII in the end looks difficult as the tiebreaker with BYU will be lost, while beating both Texas Tech and Utah seems unlikely. 

Houston 3-2 (Kalshi 4% to Win Big XII – 43% to make title game)

The Cougars played well enough to win against Utah last week in a close loss, while also losing a close game to Texas Tech on the road in the Big XII opener. Houston will need at least one of those teams to fall out of the race to have a shot to play for the conference title but the Cougars should be favored in all four remaining games and are a serious threat to be 10-2 by season’s end, with a 7-2 Big XII mark that could be in the mix to make it to Arlington. Given the many head-to-head games still remaining for the other teams on this list, Houston’s odds to qualify for the Big XII title game are at 43%, actually better than Texas Tech’s in the current market.