ASA's NFL Thursday Night Preview - Falcons vs Packers

 

 

Thursday, Sept. 24, 8:15 p.m. ET | Lambeau Field | Prime Video, The Packers open their home schedule against an Atlanta team that has scored just 8 points per game and remains winless. Green Bay is coming off a sloppy but historic overtime win over the Jets; the Falcons are turning to Michael Penix Jr. after two lifeless offensive performances.

 

SPREAD AND TOTAL - The spread on this game currently sits at -6.5 at most books as of Tuesday afternoon.  This line opened -7.5 and pushed down through 7 after QB Penix was named the starter.  The total has dropped from an opener of 46.5 to 44.5 on Tuesday.  Both of Atlanta’s games have gone under, while Green Bay is 1-1.

 

ATLANTA AND TURNOVERS - Turnovers have been a huge issue for the Falcons thus far.  They lost 34-3 last week to Carolina, but they also had 5 turnovers (Carolina had 0).  Atlanta has 7 turnovers in two games, including 2 pick-sixes, with only 1 takeaway. The -6 turnover differential is last in the NFL. You cannot win games in the NFL with those turnover numbers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE STRUGGLING- Atlanta offense under 3rd string QB Cooper Rush: 16 total points, last in the NFL at 8 PPG, and only 1  touchdown. The Falcons have reached the red zone 0 times this season.  Their lone TD came from 23 yards out against the Steelers, so technically they were never “in” the red zone. Last week they scored 3 points and never got inside the 20 against a Carolina defense that had just allowed 59 points to Chicago a week earlier.  For comparison’s sake Atlanta averaged 4.3 YPP vs. Carolina while the previous week the Panthers allowed Chicago to rack up 7.9 YPP.   On the season, Atlanta is averaging 4.2 YPP, ahead of only Pittsburgh. 

 

RUSH SITS, PENIX STARTS – QB Michael Penix will start this game, coming back from an ACL tear.  He didn’t play in the preseason and has not played since Nov. 16 last year so rust could definitely be a factor.  Over his first two seasons he completed 59.6% of his passes for 2,757 yards, 12 TDs and 6 INTs.  Tua Tagovailoa is still injured from the preseason (oblique) and remains out.

 

GREEN BAY OFFENSIVE LINE – The Packers have one of the most inexperienced offensive lines in the NFL – 29th in combined career starts.  They haven’t been able to run the ball averaging just 64.5 YPG on the ground (last in the NFL) after putting up 118 YPG rushing last season.  They are averaging a league low 19.5 carries per game.  On top of their inexperience, the offensive line is now banged up with veteran OT Bako-Bewele out and OG Banks questionable.

 

HOW DID GREEN BAY WIN LAST WEEK?  The Packers trailed 17-7 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game @ NY Jets last Sunday.  Their 20-17 OT win comeback win was ugly and unprecedented. Green Bay became the first team in NFL history to win a game with fewer than 200 total yards, 100-plus penalty yards, and a negative turnover margin.  Teams in that spot had been 0-44 SU entering the game. It was also only the third time in the last 10 seasons the Packers were held under 200 total yards. That win however did preserve a rare streak: Green Bay is the only NFL team that has not started a season 0-2 at any point in the last 20 years. 

 

ATS INFORMATION – Both teams are 0-2 ATS to start the season.  The Packers are now in a historically tough betting spot. Since 2000, teams coming off an overtime game on Sunday and then playing Thursday night are 6-26 ATS.  It already happened once this season, when Detroit got rolled at Buffalo after an OT win the previous Sunday.  Atlanta is just 6-10-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or more since the start of the 2021 season.  Packers have one of the best long term home favorite cover rates in the NFL.  Since 1992 they’ve cashed nearly 58% of the time as a home chalk (140-103-10 ATS record).  The Falcons have gone Under the Total in each of their first 3 games of the season the last 3 years.  8-0 to the Under trying to make it a perfect 9-0 on Thursday night.     

THURSDAY WEATHER - As of Tuesday afternoon, the weather in Green Bay looks perfect on Thursday night.  Temps in the 50's, very light winds, and no precipitation.