by ASA, Inc.
Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026
NBA Futures Betting Preview - 2026-27
With the NBA’s new anti-tanking rules in place for the 2026-27 season (the “3-2-1” lottery system that puts the three worst teams in a relegation zone with reduced odds), late-season tanking should largely disappear. Teams now have far less incentive to lose on purpose, and most franchises have already internalized a more practical lesson from last year: keeping your core healthy and available matters far more than chasing home-court advantage in the playoffs. The best-positioned clubs are the ones that can stay relatively intact for 82 games and still have something left in the tank for the postseason.
Here are our top futures leans heading into the season:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio Spurs UNDER 60.5 Total Wins
The combination of a target on their backs, regression in close games, and any dip in availability makes 61+ a high bar for the Spurs in 2026-27. San Antonio won 62 games a year ago with a +8.3 points per game scoring differential. The Spurs were 6th in offensive efficiency at 1.144PPP, 3rd in defensive efficiency at 1.067PPP allowed. The Spurs notched 8 wins last season by one possession games, 6 wins by two. If a few of those wins go against them this season, they won’t get to 61 or more. You also have to be concerned about Wemby’s durability or health for the full season (played 64 of 82 regular season games a year ago) and whether San Antonio take a cautious approach and protect him for another deep playoff run. San Antonio also had the 2nd lowest games missed by starters last season at 131 so if they suffer some unfortunate injuries, it could limit their win total.
Dallas Mavericks OVER 34.5 Total Wins
The Mavericks have a very intriguing starting lineup with three former #1 picks in the NBA draft on the roster. The return of (#1 pick) PG Kyrie Irving (missed all of last season) and C Derek Lively II (played 7 games) from injury along with former #1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, (#1 pick) Cooper Flagg and PJ Washington give the Mavs a formidable starting lineup. Lively will be out to start the season but they have a vet rim protector in Daniel Gafford in his absence. They also have scoring off the bench with Naji Marshall, Max Christie and Santi Aldama. Dallas has a new head coach in former Michigan coach Dusty May who won 83.1% of his games in two years at UM. His style is modern and will translate to the NBA. His offenses make sense mathematically. He has shown he can adapt to different personnel. Players seem to buy into him, and his college teams already looked more like NBA teams than most. Dallas had 35 unique starting lineups in 2025-26 as heavy injury issues, plus lineup experimentation led to constant shuffling of the starting five. Dallas was 29th in defensive efficiency a year ago at 1.166PPP allowed but will be better on that end of the court with Risacher and Lively in the lineup. The Mavs offense is instantly better with Irving and will produce more than the 1.112PPP (27th) it averaged last season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Celtics OVER 50.5 Total Wins
The Celtics are quietly flying under the radar in the Eastern Conference right now with all the “noise” surrounding the LeBron/76ers, Heat/Giannis and Raptors/Kawhi. Not to mention the Washington Wizards and the trades they made last season for Tray Young and Anthony Davis. Boston shipped Jaylen Brown (good riddance) to the 76ers for vet Paul George and handed the keys to the team to Jayson Tatum. Brown wasn’t well liked in the locker room and caused some friction with Tatum as he felt he was the #1 guy on the roster. Ask yourself why, despite Stevens/Celtics trading away an All-Star who averaged 28.7ppg last season along with 6.9 rebounds, Boston’s win total O/U is 4th highest in the league. Tatum looks healthy and the additions of Paul George and Mitchell Robinson fit perfectly with what the Celtics want to do moving forward. The older George can still shoot/score and has not problem deferring to Tatum as “the guy”. Derrick White does everything well, Pritchard is a proven scorer off the bench, and the combination of Robinson/Queta will dominate the glass. Then add in the fact that the Celtics have great 3-point shooting with Hauser and Scheiermam. Boston was the 9th best 3PT% team in the league a year ago at 36.4% on the 3rd most attempts per game at 42.5. They were the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.208 points per possession and ranked 4th in defensive efficiency.
New York Knicks UNDER 52.5 Total Wins
Much like our preview on the Spurs, the Knicks will have a target on their backs and get everyone’s best shot as the reigning NBA Champions. New York decided to run-it back this season with essentially the same lineup from a team that won 53 games in the regular season a year ago. The Knicks had the 3rd fewest missed games to injury overall a year ago, which clearly had a positive impact on their Championship run. We see New York employing a similar strategy to last year’s model which was stay healthy, win enough games to secure home court in the first round and take your chances from there. The Knicks were 7th in DEFF and the 3rd most efficient offense in 2025-26. In the regular season the Knicks had the 5th best scoring differential at +6.3ppg. Don’t get us wrong, we like this Knicks roster of Brunson, Hart, Bridges, Anunoby and Anthony-Towns, but this year they go from being the hunters to the hunted and we don’t see them getting to 52 or more total wins.
Other considerations:
Under 43.5 Wins Orlando Magic: The entire Eastern Conference is better this season, and the Magic won 45 games a year ago against lesser competition. The Magic had an average +/- of plus +0.6ppg – 17th in the NBA. We don’t see them getting 40+ wins this season.
Under 40.5 Wins Golden State Warriors: This aging roster will have a tough time improving on 37 wins from a year ago. Jimmy Butler will miss a portion of the season, Porzingis is MIA and Steph Curry only played 43 games a year ago. The Warriors had an average scoring differential of minus -0.6ppg. This looks like the end of the dynasty.
NBA Champions:
San Antonio Spurs +250 – It became clear last season during the Western Conference Finals that the Spurs have a roster built to beat OKC. San Antonio beat the Thunder in 4 of five regular season games (Including the NBA Cup) and 4 of seven in the playoffs. The young Spurs may not win 60 regular season games but they don’t need to for another WC Title. San Antonio had the 2nd best efficiency differential a year ago at +8.3 and a year of maturity should make them better in 2026-27. The challengers in the West will be the Nuggets, Thunder, Rockets and Timberwolves but we don’t see those teams usurping the Spurs and their title run.
