by Team Del Genio
Friday, Jul 31, 2026The finals of the 2026 World Cup between Argentina and Spain had all the makings of a lower-scoring game.
Four of the previous six and six of the previous nine games in the finals of the World Cup finished under 2.5 goals since 1990. Remove the four times that France played in the finals during that time span, and all five of those World Cup finals that did not have France involved finished under 2.5 goals.
Generally, the opportunity to play for the world championship leads to cautious play from both sides early in the game as both teams deal with nerves and the desire to avoid a costly early mistake. This game was being played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, the home of the New York Giants and the New York Jets, and the playing conditions may be impacted by the wildfires taking place in Canada. The need to conserve stamina is yet another reason why both teams will want to display patience early in the game.
Another unique factor is the extended halftime show for this spectacle, much like what NFL teams experience in the Super Bowl. To accommodate the 11-minute musical performance featuring Justin Bieber, Madonna, Shakira, and BTS, FIFA projects the halftime break from 21 to 26 minutes (and we will take the over on that one). Normally, the halftime break in soccer is 15 minutes. Approaching double that length, both managers encounter similar incentives to simply avoid mistakes in the 1st half, benefit from the extra 15 minutes of rest, and use that additional time to assess and implement a specific strategy for the 2nd half. Both managers have to account for the possibility of the 30 minutes of extra time if the game is tied after 90 minutes of regulation time. Neither team can win the World Cup in the 45 minutes of the 1st half, but both teams could potentially lose it if costly mistakes are made.
Argentina had grown comfortable pulling out victories late in games. Nine of their previous ten goals had been scored at the 79th minute or later in the 2nd half. The defending champions were patient and would remain confident that they could pull out any game. Their game in the semifinals against England was very physical with very few scoring chances in the 1st half. They did concede to the Three Lions in the 55th minute of the 2nd half when Anthony Gordon scored, yet England only had five shot attempts for the entire game. That game would have finished under 2.5 combined goals if not for their winning goal from Lautaro Martinez in the second minute of stoppage time. In their quarterfinal game against Switzerland, the game was 1-1 after regulation time despite Argentina playing with a man advantage for the final 18 minutes of the 2nd half.
La Albiceleste would be content to see this game go into extra time or even a penalty shootout, where they have had great success behind a great penalty-saving goalkeeper, Emiliano Martinez. They know that Spain has lost four of their five World Cup games when decided on the penalty shootout. La Roja also lost the UEFA Nations League final to Portugal in the penalty shootout last year.
It would be difficult to score on Spain, who have given up only one goal in their seven games in this World Cup. La Roja completely frustrated France in the semifinals by holding them to only 10 shots, with only three of which were on target. Spain’s philosophy is that their opponent cannot score if they do not possess the ball. They might not mind a long game either that extends beyond 90 minutes (when the oddsmakers decide the over/under bets) since their tactics intend to wear down their opponents. Spain had won two of their games from late goals as well. Their game winner against Belgium came in the 88th minute of the 2nd half. Their winner in their 1-0 victory against Portugal in the round of 16 game came in the second minute of stoppage time in the 2nd half.
We saw the most likely outcomes after regulation time either being a 1-1 score or a victory by one of these two teams, where they held their opponent scoreless. The under was our World Cup Total of the Year. Our forecast went about as well as could be expected, as neither team scored in the regulation 90 minutes. Ferran Torres finally scored in the 106th minute in the game, and Spain held on for the final fourteen minutes to win that game, 1-0, and the 2026 World Cup.
Good luck - TDG.
Four of the previous six and six of the previous nine games in the finals of the World Cup finished under 2.5 goals since 1990. Remove the four times that France played in the finals during that time span, and all five of those World Cup finals that did not have France involved finished under 2.5 goals.
Generally, the opportunity to play for the world championship leads to cautious play from both sides early in the game as both teams deal with nerves and the desire to avoid a costly early mistake. This game was being played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, the home of the New York Giants and the New York Jets, and the playing conditions may be impacted by the wildfires taking place in Canada. The need to conserve stamina is yet another reason why both teams will want to display patience early in the game.
Another unique factor is the extended halftime show for this spectacle, much like what NFL teams experience in the Super Bowl. To accommodate the 11-minute musical performance featuring Justin Bieber, Madonna, Shakira, and BTS, FIFA projects the halftime break from 21 to 26 minutes (and we will take the over on that one). Normally, the halftime break in soccer is 15 minutes. Approaching double that length, both managers encounter similar incentives to simply avoid mistakes in the 1st half, benefit from the extra 15 minutes of rest, and use that additional time to assess and implement a specific strategy for the 2nd half. Both managers have to account for the possibility of the 30 minutes of extra time if the game is tied after 90 minutes of regulation time. Neither team can win the World Cup in the 45 minutes of the 1st half, but both teams could potentially lose it if costly mistakes are made.
Argentina had grown comfortable pulling out victories late in games. Nine of their previous ten goals had been scored at the 79th minute or later in the 2nd half. The defending champions were patient and would remain confident that they could pull out any game. Their game in the semifinals against England was very physical with very few scoring chances in the 1st half. They did concede to the Three Lions in the 55th minute of the 2nd half when Anthony Gordon scored, yet England only had five shot attempts for the entire game. That game would have finished under 2.5 combined goals if not for their winning goal from Lautaro Martinez in the second minute of stoppage time. In their quarterfinal game against Switzerland, the game was 1-1 after regulation time despite Argentina playing with a man advantage for the final 18 minutes of the 2nd half.
La Albiceleste would be content to see this game go into extra time or even a penalty shootout, where they have had great success behind a great penalty-saving goalkeeper, Emiliano Martinez. They know that Spain has lost four of their five World Cup games when decided on the penalty shootout. La Roja also lost the UEFA Nations League final to Portugal in the penalty shootout last year.
It would be difficult to score on Spain, who have given up only one goal in their seven games in this World Cup. La Roja completely frustrated France in the semifinals by holding them to only 10 shots, with only three of which were on target. Spain’s philosophy is that their opponent cannot score if they do not possess the ball. They might not mind a long game either that extends beyond 90 minutes (when the oddsmakers decide the over/under bets) since their tactics intend to wear down their opponents. Spain had won two of their games from late goals as well. Their game winner against Belgium came in the 88th minute of the 2nd half. Their winner in their 1-0 victory against Portugal in the round of 16 game came in the second minute of stoppage time in the 2nd half.
We saw the most likely outcomes after regulation time either being a 1-1 score or a victory by one of these two teams, where they held their opponent scoreless. The under was our World Cup Total of the Year. Our forecast went about as well as could be expected, as neither team scored in the regulation 90 minutes. Ferran Torres finally scored in the 106th minute in the game, and Spain held on for the final fourteen minutes to win that game, 1-0, and the 2026 World Cup.
Good luck - TDG.
